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The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An Interagency Success Story

61 st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An Interagency Success Story. March 5 - 9, 2007. Welcoming Remarks. Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology. 61 st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference The Nation’s Hurricane Program:

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The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An Interagency Success Story

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  1. 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An Interagency Success Story March 5 - 9, 2007

  2. Welcoming Remarks Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An Interagency Success Story Sponsored and hosted by: The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

  3. Special Welcome Representing The Honorable C. Ray Nagin Mayor of New Orleans Colonel Terry J. Ebbert, USMC (Retired) 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  4. Overview • Why Are We Here • Successes and Challenges • Conference Objectives • Conference Agenda • Conference Logistics • Keynote Speaker • Special Remarks

  5. Rank Hurricane Year CAT Normalized Damage* 1 Great Miami 1926 4 139.5 2 Galveston 1900 4 91.6 3 Katrina 2005 3 81.0 4 Galveston 1915 4 63.0 5 Andrew 1992 5 52.3 6 New England 1938 3 37.3 7 FL-SW 1944 3 35.6 8 Lake Okeechobee 1928 4 31.8 9 Donna 1960 4 28.9 10 Camille 1969 5 24.0 Why Are We Here * Methodology used by Collins and Lowe (2001); U.S. billions $ Reference: Pielke et al 2007

  6. Successes and Challenges • Successes • Advances in modeling / data assimilation • Improvements in track & intensity model guidance • Joint Hurricane Test bed (JHT) • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) • Joint hurricane field programs • Improved reconnaissance & observing capabilities (e.g., Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer) • Challenges • Data assimilation / modeling / computing power • Improved forecast skill for: • Storm intensity / structure • Storm track • Sea state & storm surge • Inland flooding • Observation gaps (e.g., ocean surface vector winds) • Information dissemination (technology, message) • Incorporating results of social science research into operations

  7. Conference Objectives • Review the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program form end-to-end, and update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2007 • Evaluate the 2006 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) results and successfully transition research results into operations, as well as potential candidates for 2007 and beyond • Address/build upon the actions and results from the 60th IHC • Roll out the Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead and begin addressing the recommendations • Examine how hazard risk reduction improvements can be made through stronger partnerships and alliances

  8. Conference Agenda This Afternoon • Keynote Address 1:00 – 1:20 PM VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (ret.) Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere / NOAA Administrator • Special Remarks on behalf of Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco1:20 – 1:35 PM Major General Hunt Downer Assistant Adjutant General (Army), Joint Force Headquarters-Louisiana, Louisiana National Guard, New Orleans, Louisiana

  9. Conference Agenda This Afternoon • Panel Discussion: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones – A View from the Top 1:40 – 3:30 PM Moderator:Dr. Robert Serafin, NCAR Director Emeritus Panelists:Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research, Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters Dr. Stephan Nelson, Program Director, Physical and Dynamic Meteorology, NSF Mr. William Curry, Deputy Technical Director, Oceanographer of the Navy Mr. X. William (Bill) Proenza, Director, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS

  10. Conference Agenda Later This Afternoon and Evening • Session 1: The 2006 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review 4:00 – 5:45 PM Session Leaders: Dr. Edward Rappaport (TPC/NHC) and CAPT John O’Hara (NMFC/JTWC) • Reception/Icebreaker: 6:30 - 8:00 PM • Atrium Foyer (2nd Floor)

  11. Conference Agenda Wednesday Evening – Conference Banquet • Banquet Address: Mr. John M. Barry, Best-Selling Author, 2006 Abel Wolman Lecturer about Hurricane Katrina, and Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Center for Bioenvironmental Research of Tulane and Xavier Universities • Presentation of the Hagemeyer Award Cash Bar Open: 6:30 PM Banquet Starts: 7:00 PM Banquet Address: 7:45 PM

  12. Conference Agenda Friday Morning – Final Plenary Session Opening/Administrative Remarks8:15 AM • Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM), Session Coordinator WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review8:20 AM • Dr. Edward Rappaport (TPC/NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR Workshop Wrap-ups8:45 AM • Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead, Dr. Paul D. Try (OFCM/STC) • Hazard Risk Reduction through Stronger Partnerships and Alliances, Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow (OFCM/STC) and Ms. Naomi Moye (OFCM/STC) Final Wrap-up9:15 AM Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator Adjourn 9:45 AM

  13. Conference Logistics Conference Chair: Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Mr Bob Dumont Mr. Mark Welshinger Mr. Kent Laborde Mr. Mark Welshinger Lt Col David Andrus Ms. Erin McNamara Ms. Christina Bork Mr. Ken Barnett Mr. Frank Estis Ms. Dawn Erlich Ms. Carmelita Riley Ms. Delores Shackelford Conference Coordinators Media Coordinators Asst. Coordinator for Conference Arrangements Audiovisual Specialists Registrars

  14. Presentation Timers Session Coordinators Poster Session Conference Logistics Mr. Tony Ramirez Mr. Mark Gunzelman Col Michael Babcock Ms. Mary Cairns Mr. Bob Dumont Mr. Frank Estis Mr. Floyd Hauth Dr. Paul Try Dr. Mark Weadon Col Michael Babcock

  15. Rapporteurs Ms. Mary Cairns Mr. Mark Gunzelman Mr. Floyd Hauth Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow Ms. Naomi Moye Mr. Tony Ramirez Dr. Mark Weadon Conference Logistics

  16. Conference Logistics First Floor Blaine Kern Ballroom Conference Posters Second Floor Banquet River Bend Ballroom Atrium Icebreaker

  17. Keynote Speaker Keynote Speaker: VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN ret.) Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere / NOAA Administrator The Nation’s Hurricane Program

  18. Special Remarks Major General Hunt Downer, USA Representing The Honorable Kathleen Babineaux Blanco Governor of Louisiana 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  19. Opening Session Panel Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones – A View from the Top Moderator:Dr. Robert Serafin, NCAR Director Emeritus Panelists:Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research, Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters Dr. Stephan Nelson, Program Director, Physical and Dynamic Meteorology, NSF Mr. William Curry, Deputy Technical Director, Oceanographer of the Navy Mr. X. William (Bill) Proenza, Director, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS

  20. Federal Agency Lead Reps NOAA - Dr. Richard Spinrad Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Navy - CAPT David Titley Commanding Officer, Naval Oceanography Operations Command Air Force – Col Michael Babcock Assistant AF Deputy to NOAA NASA – Dr. Ramesh Kakar Program Manager NASA Headquarters Army - Dr. Andrew Garcia Research Scientist, U.S. Army Engineer R&D Center NSF – Dr. Stephan Nelson Program Director, Physical and Dynamic Meteorology USDA – Mr. Brad Rippey Agricultural Meteorologist USGS – Ms. Marge Davenport Associate Regional Executive FEMA – Mr. Matthew Green Hurricane Liaison Team Coordinator

  21. Ground Rules • Questions welcomed...time permitting • Significant agency issues worked through lead agency reps • User community & agency reps are welcome to raise issues for discussion during Q&A periods and at Thursday workshops • Significant issues reviewed daily at OFCM staff meeting • Issues that need to be reviewed by Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research • Presented to the Working Group on Thursday afternoon • Results of discussions and any action items • Summarized during the Final Plenary Session

  22. Session 1 Coordinator: Mr. Robert Dumont, OFCM 2006 Hurricane/Typhoon Season in Review (4:00 to 5:45 PM) Session Leaders Dr. Edward Rappaport, Deputy Director, TPC/NHC CAPT John O’Hara, NMFC/JTWC 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  23. Reception / Icebreaker Atrium Foyer (2nd Floor) 6:30 - 8:00 PM

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