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A core Course on Modeling

A core Course on Modeling. Introduction to Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl S.18. Example 2:. http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1361109. “How many chimney sweepers work in Eindhoven?”. Example 2:. http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1361109.

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A core Course on Modeling

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  1. A core Course on Modeling Introductionto Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl S.18

  2. Example 2: http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1361109 “How manychimneysweepers work in Eindhoven?”

  3. Example 2: http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1361109 “How manychimneysweepers work in Eindhoven?” QUIZ First trytofind the answeryourself in the same way as with the detergent problem.

  4. relations dimensions assumptions todo Eindhoven ch.-sweeperssweepEindhoven chimneysonly nrChSwIE nrChIE nrSwPCh nrChPFam nrFamIE nrPIE nrPPFam nrChSwIE= nrChIE* nrSwPCh [Sw / E] = [Ch / E] * [SW / Ch] ch.-sweeperssweeponlychimneys on family houses nrChIE= nrChPFam * nrFamIE [Ch / E] = [Ch / Fam] * [Fam / E] nrPPFam is the sameeverywhere(does not depend on ‘Eindhoven’) nrFamIE= nrPIE/ nrPPFam [Fam / E] = [P / E] / [P / Fam] common knowledge nrPIE= 250000 [P] public domain nrPPFam = 2.2  0.2 [P/Fam] nrChPFam (= 1/nrFamPCh) =0.10.02 [Ch/Fam] wisdom of the crowds Sw=sweeper; Ch=chimney;E=Eindhoven;Fam=Family;P=people;Se=Service;

  5. relations dimensions assumptions todo nrChSwIE nrChIE nrSwPCh nrChPFam nrFamIE nrPIE nrSwPCh = Sw=sweeper; Ch=chimney;E=Eindhoven;Fam=Family;P=people;Se=Service;

  6. QUIZ Tofindanexpressionfor the number of chimneysweepers per chimney, trytorelate the offeredcapacity of chimneysweepersto the requiredcapacity of chimneys. What is the expressionfornrSwPCh? relations dimensions assumptions todo nrChSwIE nrChIE nrSwPCh nrChPFam nrFamIE nrPIE nrSwPCh = Sw=sweeper; Ch=chimney;E=Eindhoven;Fam=Family;P=people;Se=Service;

  7. relations dimensions assumptions todo relatesweeper’scapacitytochimney’sneed nrChSwIE nrChIE nrSwPCh nrChPFam nrFamIE nrPIE nrPPFam nrSwPSe nrSePCh timeP1Se timeP1Sw nrSwPSe * nrSePCh nrSwPCh = [Sw / Ch] = [Sw*year/Se] * [Se/(Ch*year)] assumeaveragetimes(i.e., no seasoninfluences etc.) nrSwPSe = timeP1Se / timeP1Sw [Sw * year / Se] = [hour / Se] / [hour / (Sw*year)] wisdom of the crowds timeP1Se = 20.25 hour / Se workyear = 1600 hours timeP1Sw = 1200100 hour / Sw * year) insurancerequirement nrSePCh = 1 Se /( Ch * year) todo list is empty  model is ready Sw=sweeper; Ch=chimney;E=Eindhoven;Fam=Family;P=people;Se=Service;

  8. QUIZ Whyagaindid we compute the number of chimneysweepers in Eindhoven? http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=587687

  9. Where does this lead to? Nowhere ...since we formulated no purpose! http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=587687

  10. Whatpurposescould we thinkof? QUIZ Give at leastthree different reasonswhy we couldbeinterested in the number of chimneysweepers in Eindhoven?

  11. Whatpurposescould we think of: e.g. verification are there at least200 ChimneySweeperssothat we can begin a professional journal? so: we onlyneedtoknowifNrChSwIE> 300

  12. Whatpurposescould we think of: e.g. verification are therelessthan 50 ChimneySweeperssothat we can have next year’sChSwconvention meeting in the Restaurant ‘the Swinging Sweeper?’ so: we onlyneedtoknowifNrChSwIE<50

  13. Whatpurposescould we think of: e.g. verification are thereabout as manyChimneySweepers as there are SewerCleaners(=23) sothat we can form efficient ‘ChimneyandSewage Control and Service Units’? so: we onlyneedtoknowifNrChSwIEis between20 and30

  14. Whatpurposescould we think of: • … eachpurpose • poses different challenges • allowsdifferent approximations

  15. Can we trust the model? (elaborated in ch. 6) Confront with the outcome of a second, independent model http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=836231

  16. Can we trust the model? (elaborated in ch. 6) Confront with the outcome of a second, independent model QUIZ Whatother approaches canyouthink of toestimate the number of chimneysweepers in Eindhoven? http://www.sxc.hu/photo/802363

  17. Can we trust the model? (elaborated in ch. 6) Confront with the outcome of a second, independent model • How muchsootandashes • are disposed of by the municipalAsh & Soot Depot? http://www.sxc.hu/photo/802363

  18. Can we trust the model? (elaborated in ch. 6) Confront with the outcome of a second, independent model http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=811693 • How often do yousee a • chimneysweeper at work • (wisdom of the crowds)?

  19. $ Can we trust the model? (elaborated in ch. 6) $ http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1089075 Confront with the outcome of a second, independent model $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ • How much money do people • in E. spendannually in • cleaning theirchimneys? check out a model for the later case:

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