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Internet Futures

Delve into the future of the internet industry, exploring key factors shaping its trajectory. Reflect on past mistakes, current challenges, and potential strategies for success in this dynamic sector. Discover how user behaviors impact market forces, revenue and service profiles, and infrastructure roles. Uncover the complexities of scaling bandwidth, storage, and efficiency while questioning the notion of 'bigger is always cheaper.' Explore the transition from traditional telecom services to valued network overlays, all while navigating investor concerns and consumer behaviors reshaping the industry.

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Internet Futures

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  1. Internet Futures

  2. Internet Futures Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at the .se event in October 2006 had a profound impact on me – he stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an irresistible message. More folk should hear what he has to say – so this is your opportunity! I’ve made some changes to match whats been happening since 2006, but I think that the essential message remains the same – thanks Anders! Geoff

  3. Internet Futures

  4. purpose: share some musings about this industry and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future

  5. why This industry has a rich history

  6. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses

  7. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise!

  8. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise! could we do abetter job?

  9. One approach: • Observe the situation and what’s happening • Believe what we see • Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

  10. User forces on the Market From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ? From radio to tv to ?

  11. Revenue Profile

  12. Revenue Profile How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak

  13. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak

  14. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak

  15. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak

  16. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak

  17. Over the top apps

  18. Over the top apps

  19. Over the top apps Content is a commodity application that users do rather than a valuable service that is delivered by service providers

  20. QoS IMS Network VPNs

  21. QoS IMS Network VPNs

  22. QoS IMS Network VPNs Web enabled user generated content facebook doppler youtube wikipedia

  23. QoS IMS Network VPNs Web enabled user generated content facebook doppler youtube wikipedia

  24. ngn ims

  25. Infrastructure roles

  26. fuelling the usage growth fire

  27. fuelling the usage growth fire usage = scaling

  28. fuelling the usage growth fire Please send heaps more…. bandwidth storage switching fibre routes routing addressing delivering silicon density power memory speed heat dissipation storage efficiency usage = scaling

  29. fuelling the usage growth fire Please send heaps more…. bandwidth storage switching fibre routes routing addressing delivering silicon density power memory speed heat dissipation storage efficiency usage = scaling But is bigger always cheaper?

  30. fuelling the usage growth fire Please send heaps more…. bandwidth storage switching fibre routes routing addressing delivering silicon density power memory speed heat dissipation storage efficiency usage = scaling But is bigger always cheaper? and what happens when its not?

  31. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network

  32. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Local Access monopolies Mobile telephony

  33. Business today’s telco pressure points … Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Local Access monopolies Mobile telephony Investors are getting very nervous about telcos Cost of capital is rising Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging Shareholder returns need to stay high No residual expertise left in-house

  34. ? network commodity utility network operation high capacity packet pushing

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