Greg Osterman, Kevin Bowman, Brian Kahn, Bill Irion

1. Use of TES, AIRS and other satellite data for evaluation of air quality modeling efforts by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Fall AGU 2007 – A54C-08December 14, 2007 Greg Osterman, Kevin Bowman, Brian Kahn, Bill Irion Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology Mark Estes, Clint Harper, Weining Zhao Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Jay Al-Saadi NASA Langley Research Center Brad Pierce NOAA/NESDIS

2. What we hope to do … • Collaborate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) modeling team provide the best possible results of modeling ozone episodes used to help determine emission controls to bring Texas into attainment with EPA standards

3. What we hope to do … • Collaborate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) modeling team provide the best possible results of modeling ozone episodes used to help determine emission controls to bring Texas into attainment with EPA standards • Use chemical transport model results as lateral and vertical boundary conditions for the TCEQ air quality model (CAMx)

4. What we hope to do … • Collaborate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) modeling team provide the best possible results of modeling ozone episodes used to help determine emission controls to bring Texas into attainment with EPA standards • Use chemical transport model results as lateral and vertical boundary conditions for the TCEQ air quality model (CAMx) • Use TES (O3 and CO), AIRS (Temp, H2O, CO) for benchmarking MM5 and CAMx model results

5. What we hope to do … • Collaborate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) modeling team provide the best possible results of modeling ozone episodes used to help determine emission controls to bring Texas into attainment with EPA standards • Use chemical transport model results as lateral and vertical boundary conditions for the TCEQ air quality model (CAMx) • Use TES (O3 and CO), AIRS (Temp, H2O, CO)) for benchmarking MM5 and CAMx model results • Evaluate the effects of transport of pollutants originating outside the state boundaries

6. What we hope to do … • Collaborate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) modeling team provide the best possible results of modeling ozone episodes used to help determine emission controls to bring Texas into attainment with EPA standards • Use chemical transport model results as lateral and vertical boundary conditions for the TCEQ air quality model (CAMx) • Use TES (O3 and CO), AIRS (Temp, H2O, CO)) for benchmarking MM5 and CAMx model results • Evaluate the effects of transport of pollutants originating outside the state boundaries • Direct use of satellite data to benchmark model results used in making air quality policy decisions

7. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • An enforceable plan developed at the state level that explains how the state will comply with the Federal Clean Air Act • Revisions must be submitted by any state that has areas designated as in nonattainment of EPA national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) • In 2007, the state of Texas approved SIP revisions (eight hour surface ozone) for: • Houston/Galveston/Beaumont (HGB) • Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)

8. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • An enforceable plan developed at the state level that explains how the state will comply with the Federal Clean Air Act • Revisions must be submitted by any state that has areas designated as in nonattainment of EPA national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) • In 2007, the state of Texas approved SIP revisions (eight hour surface ozone) for: • Houston/Galveston/Beaumont (HGB) • Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)

9. MM5 State Implementation Plan (SIP) • The first step in the development of a SIP revision is a period of data collection and modeling • Episodes for HGB to be modeled for the next SIP revision: • May-August 2005 • May-June 2006 • August-October 2006 (Texas Air Quality Study II) • TCEQ uses the CAMx model for air quality and MM5 for meteorological fields

10. CAMx State Implementation Plan (SIP) • The first step in the development of a SIP revision is a period of data collection and modeling • Episodes for HGB to be modeled for the next SIP revision: • May-August 2005 • May-June 2006 • August-October 2006 (Texas Air Quality Study II) • TCEQ uses the CAMx model for air quality and MM5 for meteorological fields

11. MM5 Met Model CAMx AQ Model Boundary Conditions Emission Inventory Modeling TCEQ Modeling for SIP

12. MM5 Met Model CAMx AQ Model Boundary Conditions Model Evaluation Emission Inventory Modeling TCEQ Modeling for SIP

13. MM5 Met Model CAMx AQ Model Boundary Conditions Model Evaluation Emission Inventory Modeling Modeling of Future Emission Scenarios TCEQ Modeling for SIP

14. MM5 Met Model CAMx AQ Model Boundary Conditions Model Evaluation Model Evaluation Emission Inventory Modeling Modeling of Future Emission Scenarios TCEQ Modeling for SIP

15. Improved Boundary Conditions • The RAQMS team has provided an analysis for 2006 that can be developed into boundary conditions for use in CAMx by TCEQ • RAQMS assimilates TES O3 and CO, OMI total O3, MODIS fire count data (Pierce et al. A14D-04) • For the 2005 time periods, we will use boundary conditions developed from Near Real Time GEOS-Chem results • Evaluate and quantify the effects of the new boundary conditions on the CAMx model results

16. Previous Study: RAQMS Boundary Conditions used in CMAQ • An evaluation during the summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study is presented in a benchmark report for the Air Quality Applications Program • Greatest difference over Western United States and off the East coast of the US • Study prior to development of assimilation capabilities • http://aiwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/esappdocs/benchmarks/AirQuality_CMAQ_Benchmark_Final.pdf

17. Previous Study: EPA Region 9 Advanced Monitoring Initiative CMAQ Prior to use of TES • Goal: Use of satellite data to augment EPA activities in trying to mitigate the health effects of ozone episodes along the US-Mexico Border • Use of TES, OMI data with ozonsondes, EPA surface monitors, health data and models • Collaboration between EPA Region 9, JPL, UC-Berkeley, NASA Ames RC, Arizona St University • Preliminary Result: Improvements in modeling of free troposphere by AQ Models CMAQ Using TES Boundary Conditions

18. Model Evaluation • Meteorological Modeling (MM5): • Seawinds on Quickscat for evaluation of model wind fields • AMSR-E sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico • AIRS temperature and water fields • Chemical modeling (CAMx): • TES ozone and carbon monoxide, AIRS carbon monoxide to evaluate the model fields in the troposphere • Improvement over use of surface monitors only as a model validation tool

19. Model Evaluation TCEQ Modeling Grid

20. Model Evaluation TCEQ Modeling Grid

21. Model Evaluation TCEQ Modeling Grid

22. Transport: Elevated CO and O3 over Houston region observed from TES Step & Stare on August 23, 2006 (TexAQS II)

23. What is the origin of the August 23 ozone and CO enhancement? TES orbits • White lines represent • 5-day back-trajectories • emanating from Houston • AIRNow Metropolitan • statistical area (MSA) sites Color contours are Reverse-Domain Filled (RDF) Lagrangian averaged ozone from the RAQMS analysis RAQMS Back Trajectories

24. What is the origin of the August 23 ozone and CO enhancement? TES orbits Moderate values (60-70ppb) over Houston, but high values over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas (~80 ppb) • White lines represent • 5-day back-trajectories • emanating from Houston • AIRNow Metropolitan • statistical area (MSA) sites Color contours are Reverse-Domain Filled (RDF) Lagrangian averaged ozone from the RAQMS analysis RAQMS Back Trajectories

25. Process history of O3 and CO Ozone production in the boundary layer about 4 days prior to arrival in Houston

26. Conclusions from Aug 23 Case • Enhancement in both CO and O3 observed by TES east of the Houston area • Slightly higher values than in RAQMS fields • Consistent with AIRS CO and O3 • Model analysis suggests anthropogenic production of ozone from surface emissions at -90 hrs. • MODIS Rapid Response maps suggest fires burning in SE United States throughout August • Hysplit trajectories suggest ozone at 850 hPa observed by TES moved back over the Midwestern United States • O3 observed in upper troposphere appears to come from the Southeastern US • TES retrievals of CO and O3 vertical profiles in conjunction with the RAQMS global model provide a means of investigating the impact of distant sources on the background concentrations over Texas • Important concern of TCEQ and other researchers studying Air Quality in Texas • Ozone at 850 hPa on Aug 23rd, 2006 is above the boundary layer and therefore will have minimal impact on Houston air quality

27. Summary • Embarking on a multiyear project to collaborate with TCEQ on using chemical model results and satellite data as part of their modeling effort • Provide improved boundary conditions for use in CAMx • Provide satellite data for use in model benchmarking • Science studies using RAQMS, TES and AIRS provide information on transport of air pollution into Texas • Methods used in this project can easily be adapted to other air quality model systems and locations • Application of the satellite data into an air quality decision support system • The JPL/TES team is working directly with air quality community to help with the use of satellite data (applied or scientific studies)