2nd International Conference on Fog and Fog Collection July 15-20 2001 St John’s, Newfoundland

1. 2nd International Conference on Fog and Fog CollectionJuly 15-20 2001St John’s, Newfoundland Dr Harvey Stern, Climate Manager, Victoria

2. Introduction • Dr Harvey Stern represented the Bureau of Meteorology at the Conference. • He presented a paper, jointly authored with Kevin Parkyn. • Harvey Stern’s attendance was financed by the Bureau’s Aviation Program.

3. The Stern/Parkyn Paper Title: ”A web-based Melbourne Airport fog and low cloud forecasting technique”. A brief glimpse of the synoptic climatology, upon which the technique is based, follows. To try out the technique, go to: “http://www.weather-climate.com/fog.html”

4. Frequency of Melbourne Aptfogs with cyclonic flow Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate (middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.

5. Frequency of Melbourne Aptlow cloud with cyclonic flow Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate (middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.

6. Frequency of Melbourne Aptfogs with anticyclonic flow Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate (middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.

7. Frequency of Melbourne Aptlow cloud with anticyclonic flow Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate (middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.

8. Background The idea of a Fog Conference began in 1995. The First Fog and Fog Collection Conference was held in in 1998 in Vancouver. At this, the Second Fog and Fog Collection Conference, there were delegates from 53 countries. Delegates from 46 countries presented papers.

9. Sponsors of the Conference • WMO. • Environment Canada. • Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. • Canadian International Development Agency.

10. Conference Organisation • Dr Robert Schemenauer, of Environment Canada, was the Conference Chair. • Professor Hans Puxbaum, of the Technical University of Vienna, was the Scientific Committee Chair. • There were seven Working Groups.

11. Key Subject Areas • Fog (& dew) chemistry & deposition. • Fog water collection, & associated social & cultural impacts. • Fog climatology, observation & modelling. • Artificial fog dispersal. • Fog’s impacts on industry.

12. Media Interest • Canadian Broadcasting Commission (CBC) interviewed almost all presenters for a special program on the conference. • Several articles in the local St John’s newspaper. • An article in Melbourne’s Sunday Age.

13. Key Aviation-Service Papers • Gurka & Mosher on improving services to industry. • Whiffen on measuring forecast performance and impacts on industry. • Chernikov on artificial fog dispersal. • Bott on fog/low cloud numerical modeling.

14. Key Results from Aviation-Service Papers • The Canadian FAR performance criterion of 0.50 is being met (current FAR is 0.45) • The Canadian VFR reliability index (RI) performance criterion of 0.95 is not being met (current VFR RI is 0.90). • The super-cooled fog disippation system can be employed at both highways and airports.

15. Key Observation-Related Papers • Kouznetsov on a radar method for detection of cloud & precipitation parameters. • Yamamoto et al on airport fog radar.

16. Key Results from Observation-Related Papers • Preliminary evaluation of airport fog radar suggests some differences in the radar parameters depending upon the occurrence fog/low cloud or precipitation. • Data for more cases need to be taken.

17. Key Climatology-Related Papers • Muraca et al, on the climatology of fog in Canada. • Bendix on a fog climatology derived from satellite data. • Amiranashvili on long-term trends in fog frequency. • Yamamoto on fog-related disasters.

18. Key Results from Climatology-Related Papers • Canadian fog frequency is declining, the Atlantic coast from over 150 days per year (1951-80) to 132 days (1971-99). • Fog-related transportation disasters are not restricted to the aviation industry. • Time series of satellite data are a tool for constructing detailed fog climatologies.

19. Key Pollution-Related Papers • Wang et al and Hindman et al on the impact of pollution on droplet size. • Millet et al on what trends in fog-water acidity indicate about corresponding trends in air quality. • Jagels, on the impact of acidic fogs on forests.

20. Key Results from Pollution-Related Papers • Whilst pollution does impact on droplet size (it reduces the average size), the available data has not suggested a corresonding decrease in rainfall. • Declining fog-water acidity in many regions reflects the consequences of tighter emission controls.

21. Key Fog-Collection Papers • Edwards et al, Henderson and Falk, & Rautenbach and Oliver, on community involvement in fog-water collection. • Larrain et al and Escobar on historical & cultural aspects of fog.

22. Key Results from Fog-Collection Papers • Fog-water collection technology allows collection of sufficient clean drinking water for the needs of poor rural communities. • Regular consultation results in participation of local communities. • Anthropologists have established cultural & practical links between fog & ancient peoples.

23. Other Key Papers • Bresci & Salbitano on modelling fog-tree interactions. • Berkowicz et al on the role of dew in the arid ecosystem. • Urquizo et al, on a statistical technique to predict fog-water deposition levels.

24. References to Verification • Development of Performance Criteria. • Addressing cause of no improvement. • Min PODs & Max FARs for Warnings. • Criteria for improvement in PODs & FARs. • Minimum VFR reliability index. • Proportion of amendments satisfying response time criteria.

25. References to Training • Development of Training Programs. • Instructional materials & residence courses. • Defining required skills, knowledge and abilities, & learning paths required to achieve desired competencies. • Computer based learning modules, tele-training, web-based training, performance support systems.

26. References to Systems • Integrating tools for forecasting low ceilings & visibility into a suite of applications. • Algorithms to integrate multi-channel satellite data and surface observations). • Interactive alerts-based algorithms. • Observational based statistical forecasting systems. • Hiring a TAF quality improvement manager.

27. References to Motivation • Providing recognition for outstanding aviation forecasts and warnings. • Most AMS forecaster awards are presently given in the severe weather area.

28. Conference Awards • Robert Cunningham, for pioneering work in fog chemistry during the 1930s. • John Monteith, for pioneering work on dew during the 1950s, including the Monteith-Penman evapotranspiration equation. • Dr Horacio Larrain, for pioneering and ongoing work towards establishing anthropological links.

29. Conference Outcomes Conference established strong north-south and east-west links with wide-ranging topics: • How early arid-zone peoples obtained their drinking water via fog collection and its current application. • The application of fog chemistry in air pollution studies. • Fog’s impact on modern-day industry.

30. Plenary Session Recommendations • Develop a global fog climatology (including that of high-altitude fog & airport fog), and a fog atlas. • Focus on social & community interaction aspects of fog-water collection development projects - technical aspects are well-defined. • Next conference is scheduled for 2004, at a location yet to be determined.

31. Ongoing Work Peter Newham is presently working on a statistical model for timing the clearing of fog at Melbourne Airport. Kevin Parkyn is presently working with Seatle meteorologist, Robert Jackson, exploring the Australian applicability of Jackson’s theoretical model for timing the clearing of regions of fog & low stratus.

32. Implications of Ongoing Work The possible integrating of: • the ongoing Newham & Jackson/Parkyn work; • the previous Goodhead work (on timing onset of fog); • the previous Keith work (on timing onset of low cloud); • the previous Stern/Parkyn work (on determing the probability of fog and low cloud); into a comprehensive knowledge-based fog & low cloud forecasting system.

33. Concluding Remarks Conference topics impact upon a range of general Bureau interests - e.g., aviation & other industries, climate & air pollution, & international relations. They impact upon specific Bureau interests - e.g., work between Monash & the Bureau on indigenous weather knowledge. It was disappointing that there weren’t more papers with a forecasting services focus. It was also disappointing that there weren’t any papers on fog’s impacts upon offshore industry.

34. To view the presentation again ...Go to: http://www.weather-climate.com/fog.ppt