Journey in Professionalism

The evolving dependence on ICTs in the Second Machine Age and: Journey in Professionalism Stephen Ibaraki, Keynote 38th International Conference on Software Engineering: http://2016.icse.cs.txstate.edu/keynotes CIOCITY 2015 Chair panel European CIOs of the Year: http://www.ciocity.com/speakers/stephen Speaker 3 sessions UN-founded IFIP World Computer Congress conferences: http://wcc-2015.org IFIP IP3 Founding Chairman Global Industry Council, IFIP IP3 Board Vice-Chair ACM Chair Practitioner Board Professional Development Committee (PCC, WC) Microsoft Strategic Advisor & Most Valuable Professional (MVP) (2006 to Present) ICT: Fellow, Distinguished Fellow, Global Fellow, National & Global Hall of Fame Writer, Investments http://www.itworldcanada.com/author/sibaraki

Agenda • Trends in ICT and Innovation • Industry view: Define Professionalism • Global Professionalism Success Measures

Trends: Big Questions? Hope we're not just the biological boot loader for digital super intelligence. Unfortunately, that is increasingly probable. --ElonMusk August 3, 2014 The mind is computable. The cosmos itself may be digital. Privacy is a recent illusion. Computing is a moral activity. --Assertions Grady Booch, NSF PACE Workshop August 21, 2014 I may be working to create tools which will enable the construction of the technology that may replace our species. How do I feel about this? Very uncomfortable. --Bill Joy SRC: News releases

Trends: Big Questions? Bill Gates (REDDIT AMA 2015): Even in the next 10 problems like vision and speech understanding and translation will be very good. Mechanical robot tasks like picking fruit or moving a hospital patient will be solved. Once computers/robots get to a level of capability where seeing and moving is easy for them then they will be used very extensively. One project I am working on with Microsoft is the Personal Agent which will remember everything and help you go back and find things and help you pick what things to pay attention to. The idea that you have to find applications and pick them and they each are trying to tell you what is new is just not the efficient model - the agent will help solve this. It will work across all your devices. …. I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence. First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don't understand why some people are not concerned. SRC: News releases; http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2tzjp7/hi_reddit_im_bill_gates_and_im_back_for_my_third/

Trends: Big Questions? • The Reality: intelligent, fast, unbounded easy information • Unlimited smart computational resources and connections • Pervasive access & computational thinking • Whatever the future, it will depend on computing • Everything is recorded, nothing is forgotten • Organizational, geographical boundaries disappearing • Digital quake – 2025 +80% companies and jobs gone? • What are the economic implications? • What is the social impact? • What will the world look like? • What are the intended and unintended consequences? • Is there a need for ICT accountability, ethical conduct, credentialing EQUALS professionalism?

Trends: Big Questions? • “Second Machine Age” : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee • Professors from MIT “global economy is on the cusp of a dramatic growth spurt driven by smart machines that finally take full advantage of advances in computer processing, artificial intelligence, networked communication and the digitization of just about everything.” • Exponential growth: computing power, digital information, cheap IoT communicating, Big Data, unlimited speed, data recombination, ubiquity • Driverless cars, cell-reported traffic patterns, robots scanning and understanding environments (Hololens), Skype language translation, computers writing reviews/resumes/grading essays • Instagram: 300 million/mthly 70 million photos/videos/daily; in 18 months sold for $1B to Facebook; Kodak declares bankruptcy same month—FB Market Value 219B, many times Kodak at peak; FB 7 billionaires each 10x greater wealth than George Eastman SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ ; http://blog.instagram.com/post/104847837897/141210-300million

Trends: Big Questions? • “Second Machine Age” : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee • First machine age (Kodak), rising productivity is related to increasing employment, jobs and income • Second machine age (FB), existing separately productivity from jobs/income; products/services for unlimited customers, at nil cost------------------------------ • Future need: Driving greater demand for high-level programmers; education system focussed on PROFESSIONALISM skills for smart machinesEthical conduct, accountability, credentialing, professional development, quality assurance, … EQUALS ICT PROFESSIONALISM SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ

Trends: Changing economies2015 GDP (ppp) Rankings SRC: International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, News releases, KPCB, IMF estimates

Trends: Changing economies2020 GDP (ppp) Rankings SRC: International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, News releases, KPCB, IMF estimates

Trends:Tech S&P 500 Market Cap & % SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU

Trends: Threats • +95% of networks compromised • Happens in < 15 minutes • Mobile is vulnerable • Declining ethical conduct • Resource: Free Ethics Exam: • http://open2.senecac.on.ca/cips/ SRC: KPCB, CIPS

Trends: ICT Usage +10% Broadband = +1.3% Economic Growth SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF, extrapolations from news releases (IDC, Gartner, Forrester,…)

Trends: ICT Usage SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF, extrapolations from news releases (IDC, Gartner, Forrester,…)

Connecting the 7 Billion: 1B Contract (Unlimited) Broadband 2B 3B Prepaid Broadband 4B Mobile Phone Access 5B Shared Access: Community Centers, Schools, Libraries USF Target Area 6B Access through: Drones, Balloons 7B SRC: http://blogs.technet.com/b/cdnitmanagers/archive/2014/09/29/chat-with-john-davies-vice-president-intel-world-ahead-program.aspx

Trends: Workforce, Where is it heading? 50mm growing 30% yearly Added 50% in IT but not counted SRC: KPCB, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF; extrapolated from IDC, Gartner, Forrester, CompTia,…

Trends: Workforce, Where is it heading? • 115 IT skills rose in value with certified skills pay outpacing non-certified by ~ 300% • http://www.footepartners.com/fp_pdf/FooteNewsrelease_1Q14ITSkillsTrends_04162014v2sec.pdf • http://bit.ly/1Eo8sea • ACS study, certified earning +13% more than non • http://www.acs.org.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/26528/ICT-Skills-White-Paper-Common-Job-Profiles-and-Skills-Mobility-30-Dec-2013.pdf SRC: Foote Partners, Australian Computer Society

Trends: Autonomous Capabilities and Robots--Machine Learning (AI) • Google producing 100 self-driving car prototypes • DARPA Robotics challenge • NELL and NEIL – Tom Mitchell • http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm [podcasts] • Deep Learning – Andrew Ng (Coursera) • http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm [podcasts] • Brain simulation projects (MS Adam, Bing Predict) • http://bit.ly/1pKWiXB SRC: ACM, News releases

ICT Innovation: Education Online • Coursera: 117 institutions, 12 mm students, 190 countries, 1000 courses • http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/interview-andrew-ng-chairman-and-co-founder-of-coursera/94863 • eDx: MIT/Harvard, 47 providers, 2.1 mm students, 176 courses • iTunes U open university, 70mm courses downloaded • MOOCs: Massive Open Online Courses; Example Stanford course: 160K students, 190 countries, 44 languages • Khan Academy:,>400 mm lessons, 500m teachers • Innovator’s DNA: online test, learn innovation attributes of top innovators: • Questioning, Observing, Experimenting, Associating, Networking • Seoul Accord • Global accreditation program for Computing Education SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, ACM, News Releases … Red titles are URL Links to Web Sites

ICT Innovation: Digital Libraries, Ex. ACM • World’s largest scientific, educational and professional computing association, 3.4 mm reach • +110,000 members, +50% outside US • Educators, researchers, developers, students • +200 conferences / workshops / events • +70 publications / newsletters • +35 Special Interest Groups or SIGS (such as SIGGRAPH) • Awards (such as Turing “Nobel Prize of Computing”) • 1.5 million worldwide users of the Digital Library • individuals, academic institutions, government research centers, corporations…http://dl.acm.org/ • ACM Learning Center, webcasts, videos, books, courses,… http://learning.acm.org/

Types of Innovation vs. Development Phases Matrix SRC: adapted from IT Innovation Foundation and OECD

Defining Professionalism • “Do you feel computing should be a recognized profession on par with accounting, medicine and law with demonstrated professional development, adherence to a code of ethics, personal responsibility, public accountability, quality assurance and recognized credentials?”

Defining Professionalism: IFIP IP3 IFIP: IT Profession / Accreditation based on common standards • AFTER: Professionalism • Global standards • Quality, Protecting Public • Professionalism/Trust/EthicsStronger voice/Common-ID • Engineer /Executive • Business solutions • Career path • Growing GDP and innovation BEFORE: • No consistency • Failures, growing risks • Poor perceptionGeek / Pirate? • Technical features • Job • Skill shortages • Education: STEM shortages

Credentials Certification Motivations: Gaining GroundIT as a Profession or Professionalism Professional Development Infrastructure Support ProfessionalSocietal Influences Initial Professional Education Accreditation Skills Development Professional Society: Identity Code of Ethics BOK (BODY OF KNOWLEDGE) ProfessionalStatus Professional Development SOP (STANDARDS OF PRACTICE) Based on A Mature Profession Resource: http://blogs.technet.com/cdnitmanagers/archive/2008/04/23/professionalizing-the-profession.aspx

Results: Government Recognition • Prime Minister Canada:“…Since 1958, CIPS has represented its membership on important issues affecting the IT industry and profession. The association has promoted high ideals of competence and ethical practices through certification, accreditation programs, and professional development…Your efforts have made positive and lasting contributions to Canada’s economic growth and competitiveness.”

Results—Industry Support • IFIP World CIO Forum, Global CIO Joint Declarations“We strive to support [the] IT Industry and professionalism of IT career.” “We will ensure the highest standards in our work, and with both quality and ethics…” • CTO Toyota:“[IFIP] IP3 [International Professional Practice Partnership] is the start of this kind of important global activity.” • This is a key acknowledgement of the importance of ethics and IT professionalism which lays the foundation for IT as a recognized profession.

Results—Industry Support Tan Moorthy InfoSys, GIC: “Given the reach of ICT in our lives, it is important for an ICT professional to be technically strong (in order to use the right technology for the relevant problem) ethically grounded (to ensure that technology is put to the right use), socially conscious (so that the technical solution takes into consideration elements of sustainability) and business savvy (to ensure commercial viability which is required for social prosperity and funding of new developments).”

Results—Industry Support • Vint Cerf co-creator of the internet. http://bit.ly/1JqYiwK • “… I think with the degree of software that we’re surrounded by everywhere, that at some point we may be called to task for failing to do something that protects people’s interests and there may be liability, and as soon as that happens I think that some point of accreditation will be inescapable”

Results—Industry Support • Roy Taylor VP AMD says “YES!” • Roy brings a long history of highly successful innovation, entrepreneurship and strong leadership with AMD, Rightware, NVIDIA; as founder of Addtron working with semiconductor leaders such as Aureal, IBM Microelectronics, NEC, Nexgen.Read more: http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/amd-vp-roy-taylor-talks-about-windows-10-virtual-reality-security-personal-identification-trends-more/101728#ixzz3ZNy9PQNn

Results—Industry Support • Houlin Zhao, SG ITU • Q: How might ITU promote, within its many activities, professionalism in the practice of ICT? • A: “In order to reach the maturity of our technologies and also reach the maturity status of our market we really need our experts, engineers and teaching meccas to show their maximum proficiency and professional skills. It’s quite important for us to look at this issue and try to work with our members to increase those skills and proficiencies.” • http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/houlin-zhou-from-the-international-telecommunication-union-on-the-future/373566#ixzz3ZNyeqyTL

Results—Industry Support • Founding Pioneer ICT & Smart Cities, Bill Hutchinson: • http://www.cips.ca/CIPS-INTERVIEWS-William-Hutchison-Jan2014 • “When you think of the impact of computing over the years now it's at the heart of everything and it really is a profession and requires professional standards, testing and accountability. I'm 100 percent behind that idea...."

Results—Industry Support • Global Industry Council: • Prominent Leaders from Business, Industry, Government, Academia, International Bodies • “global program for computing as spearheaded by IP3 and IP3-GIC will be a catalyst for a more than a 20% increase in global GDP.”

Results—Industry Support • GITCA: largest federation of groups, > 6 million users “The IFIP IP3 program is the next step in the natural evolution of the industry and profession…Global mobility and international standards within a framework of ethical conduct, demonstrated professional development and recognized professional certification are the hall marks for an enabled IT professional and profession. This is the IFIP IP3 initiative.”

Results—Regulation • Licensing (registration and regulation)making progress with Software Engineering: • 2013, 10 US states needed for regulation • Principles and practices (PE) exam in 2013 • Graduation from an engineering accredited program, passing a fundamentals of engineering exam, four or more years of professional practice, passing the PE exam • 2014-40 states support • Internationally (Australia, Canada, UK, New Zealand,…).

Results—Other Efforts • DOD: computer security positions "certified" by the ISO/IEC 17024 standard • FEAPO has DOD US government involvement – the DOD is also planning certification in EA; EA certification support from Federal and State CIOs • FEAPO releases their EA Concepts paper in 2013 and Career Path paper in 2015 • Professional Standards legislation in Australia

Results—Other Efforts • US IT Skills draft Bill – for certifying ICT competencies • EC E-Skills: Promotion of ICT Professionalism in Europe, Pan-European ICT BOK • Sustainable model for the promotion of ICT professionalism in Europe • Reducing risk and strengthen ICT professionalism • ISO/IEC 24773 provides new conformance (accreditation) service of certification schemes in software and systems engineering • Leading the world--IFIP IP3: http://ipthree.org/ • IDG IT World (Canada) report rising professionalism • http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/professionalism-growing-or-in-a-downward-spiral/85230

Thank you Resources—discussions with over 500 experts: http://tinyurl.com/SI-chats CIPS free online ethics exam: http://open2.senecac.on.ca/cips/

Journey in Professionalism