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Impacts of Climate Change on Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter

Investigating the direct and emission-induced effects of global climate change on regional air quality, focusing on ozone and fine particulate matter levels. Preliminary study based on temperature increase simulations. Results show significant impacts on pollutant levels. Future work includes enhanced modeling with global climate data and additional emissions sources. Acknowledgements to U.S. EPA and Air Quality Group at Georgia Tech.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter

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  1. Preliminary Study: Direct and Emission-Induced Effects of Global Climate Change on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter K. Manomaiphiboon1 *, A. G. Russell1, S. He2, M. T. Odman1, S.-K. Park1, Y. Hu1, D. S. Cohan3 1: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology; 2: NESCAUM; 3: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology October 2004

  2. Contents • Introduction and Objectives • Method • Results • Summary

  3. Introduction and Objectives Source: www.ipcc..ch

  4. Cont. • Forward: Climate change induced by emissions, land use modifications, and other human activities • Inverse: Of recent interest is how climate change might potentially impact regional air quality, e.g. 45-50 years from now. • In addition, how climate change might affect control strategies of emissions. • Focus: • Temperature increase • Ozone (O3) • Fine Particulate Matter (here, ASO4 = ASO4I + ASO4J)

  5. Method • Preliminary study: Climate change due to an uniform increase in temperature • Off-line perturbation: • Meteorology: +3 K in mean temperature • Emissions: Run SMOKE using perturbed meteorology • 3 Cases: 1) Base case 2) Direct case: Perturbed Meteorology & Base Emissions 3) Emission-Induced (i.e. indirect) case: Perturbed Meteorology & Perturbed Emissions • Sensitivity to emissions by brute-force method

  6. Domain of Interest 5-Day Episode of July 01-05, 2001 MCIP

  7. Specifications of Models-3 System • CMAQ: • Chemical mechanism: SAPRC-99 • Chemistry solver: Modified Euler backward iterative (MEBI) method • Cloud: Regional acid deposition model (RADM) • Aerosol dynamics: AERO3 • Deposition velocities of aerosols: AERO_DEPV2 • Horizontal and vertical advection: Piecewise parabolic method (PPM) • Minimum vertical eddy coefficient: 0.3 m2/sec • MM5: • Simple ice microphysics • Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme • Rapid radiative transfer model • Pleim-Chang PBL • Pleim-Xiu land surface model • FDDA: Model outputs & Observational data • Evaluation: Surface hourly data • SMOKE: • 1999 U.S. emissions inventory • EGAS V4.0 w/ existing control strategy in converting 1999 emissions to 2001 emissions

  8. Perturbed Temperature Field +3 K Base-Case Temp. (K)

  9. Results: Emissions Induced by Temp. Increase Base, Biogenic VOC Biogenic VOC Change (%) Base, Mobile NOx Mobile NOx Change (%)

  10. O3 Level Direct, Change (%) Base Emission-Ind., Change (%)

  11. ASO4 Level Direct, Abs. Change Base Emission-Ind., Abs. Change

  12. Time Series of O3: Atlanta

  13. Time Series of ASO4: Atlanta

  14. Sensitivity of O3 to NOx Direct Base Emission-Induced

  15. Sensitivity of O3 to VOC Direct Base Emission-Induced

  16. Summary • Effects of climate change due to an temperature increase studied • Various emissions: Sensitive to temperature • Change (from base case) in O3 and ASO4 levels in both direct and emission-induced cases: Fair to significant • Sensitivities of O3 to NOx and VOC in all the three cases: Different but similar in both spatial pattern and magnitude • Implication: Current emissions controls still robust and applicable for the future • Future work: • Use downscaled meteorological inputs from a global climate model to drive future scenarios • Incorporate emissions from Canada and Mexico in modeling • Use DDM (Direct Decoupled Method) for sensitivity calculation • Consider more gaseous and aerosol species

  17. Acknowledgements • U.S. EPA for financial support • Sergey & Air Quality Group at CEE, GaTech, for assistance

  18. Thank You

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