1 / 25

Midterm Elections

Midterm Elections. POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-november-6-2006/daily-show-rock----mid-term-elections. Voters are apathetic, turnout is low A rigged and corrupt system ensures the reelection of incumbents Midterm elections don’t matter.

pmitchell
Download Presentation

Midterm Elections

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Midterm Elections POLS 125: Political Parties & Elections

  2. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-november-6-2006/daily-show-rock----mid-term-electionshttp://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-november-6-2006/daily-show-rock----mid-term-elections

  3. Voters are apathetic, turnout is low • A rigged and corrupt system ensures the reelection of incumbents • Midterm elections don’t matter

  4. Losses by the President's Party in Midterm Elections, 1862-2010

  5. The president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections. Period. 

  6. Theories of Midterm Loss • “Surge-and-decline” focuses on shifts in voter turnout • “Referendum” theories focus on the president’s popularity and performance (e.g., national security, economic conditions)

  7. Erikson’s Theories on Midterm Loss • Midterm loss as regression to the mean • Midterm loss as surge and decline • Midterm loss as a referendum on presidential performance • Midterm loss as a presidential penalty

  8. Turnout in Presidential and Mid-Term Elections, 1980-2010 41.3%

  9. Erikson’s Theories on Midterm Loss • Midterm loss as regression to the mean • Midterm loss as surge and decline • Midterm loss as a referendum on presidential performance • Midterm loss as a presidential penalty

  10. Tufte Model

  11. Tufte Model

  12. Fair’s Model These values lead to a predicted Democratic vote share of 50.85 percent

  13. “The economy elects presidents. Presidents elect Congress.”  — Lynn Vavreck, political scientist

  14. http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/exzp4a/democalypse-2014---it-s-all-about-that-basehttp://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/exzp4a/democalypse-2014---it-s-all-about-that-base

  15. Erikson’s Theories on Midterm Loss • Midterm loss as regression to the mean • Midterm loss as surge and decline • Midterm loss as a referendum on presidential performance • Midterm loss as a presidential penalty

  16. “We rely on statistical models for many decisions every single day, including, crucially: weather, medicine, and pretty much any complex system in which there’s an element of uncertainty to the outcome. In fact, these are the same methods by which scientists could tell Hurricane Sandy was about to hit the United States many days in advance. Dismissing predictive methods is not only incorrect; in the case of electoral politics, it’s politically harmful.” — Zeynep Tufekci, “In Defense of Nate Silver, Election Pollsters, and Statistical Predictions”

More Related