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Jure Leskovec Stanford University. Web as a Laboratory for Understanding Humanity. Web – The Lab for Humanity. The Web is my “laboratory” for understanding the pulse of humanity. Large on-line applications with hundreds of millions of users. Digital Traces Networks.
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Jure Leskovec Stanford University Web as a Laboratory for Understanding Humanity
Web – The Lab for Humanity The Web is my “laboratory” for understanding the pulse of humanity. Large on-line applications with hundreds of millions of users
Digital Traces Networks Model as an interactionnetwork
Analyzing Online Media • Collect 40 million articles, posts / day • Study media ecosystem at large
How is News Made? Blogs trail mass media for 2.5h on average (but professional blogs lead!)
Influence of Media Types Newspapers Pro Blogs TV News Agencies Blogs Entertainment
Media Networks Blogs Mainstream media
Media Networks: Zoom-in Blogs Mainstream media
Modeling Human Behavior • Predicting new links on Facebook • Out of 20k we select 20 and get 8 right!
Friend or Foe? – – + – ? + + – + + – – • > 90% accuracy
But, where are we going? • Observations: Big data • Actively influencing the system • Models: Predictions • Algorithms: Applications
Changing the Behavior How to change human behaviors.. • Observations: Data analysis • Actively influencing the system • Models: Predictions • Algorithms: Applications … to evolve into a “happy” network?
Example: Utility of links Predicting links on We get ~50% of them right But, what is global utility? • Observations: Data analysis • Actively influencing the system • Models: Predictions vs. • Algorithms: Applications How to evolve into a “happy” network? Too sparse Too “cluttered”
Reflections • Why are networks organized the way they are? • Build models/understanding • Make predictions • Large data • Observe/model patterns not visible at smaller scales
http://snap.stanford.edu THANK YOU “The future is already here — it just is unevenly distributed” William Gibson
Physchohistory • Three axioms of Physchohistory: • Detailed data about the population • Population should be sufficiently large • The population should remain in ignorance of the results Can we do it today?
What’s next? • combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make (nearly) exact predictions of the collective actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire. • What’s next? • psychohistorians, masters of an esoteric mathematical science that enables them to plan for the future of their galactic civilization and realize their plans by making minimal changes in the society around them
Seriously • Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. • Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy • If we’d want to predict future we would need: • The population whose behavior is modeled should be sufficiently large • The population should remain in ignorance of the results