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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

This report provides an overview of recent rainfall patterns and the current conditions of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It also includes predictions for the upcoming weeks. Visit the provided link for more information.

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

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  1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 22, 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

  2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

  3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. But the main story is that entire eastern half of Australia is under a severe rainfall deficit.

  4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal across southeast Asia. Interestingly, the rainfall deficits over India has been made up, and southeast China excesses have decreased and both these regions now near normal. However, over eastern Australia rainfall deficits continue.

  5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, relatively less monsoon rainfall fell across much of the region. However above normal rainfall fell near northern India, flooding near Jakarta/Indonesia and much excess rainfall over northern Queensland and vicinity in Australia. Last week’s rainfall forecast anomaly by the NCEP GFS model. Observed amounts were

  6. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

  7. Atmospheric Circulation

  8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  9. Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. But the main story is that entire eastern half of Australia is under a severe rainfall deficit. The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal across southeast Asia. Interestingly, the rainfall deficits over India has been made up, and southeast China excesses have decreased and both these regions now near normal. However, over eastern Australia rainfall deficits continue. This past week, relatively less monsoon rainfall fell across much of the region. However above normal rainfall fell near northern India, flooding near Jakarta/Indonesia and much excess rainfall over northern Queensland and vicinity in Australia. However, for the upcoming couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model predicts below normal rainfall over southeast China and much below normal rainfall over northern Australia.

  10. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

  11. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

  12. Climatology

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