Welcome to the ‘Climate change and your business’ workshop

1. Welcome to the‘Climate change and your business’ workshop

2. Programme for the evening • Start 6pm • Short Film – ‘Climate change – Changing Business’ • Short talk - A recap on actual climate variability in the Park over the last 20 years • Group discussion : how does current climatic variability impact on your current business activities? • Short talk - Future climate change scenarios for the Park • Group discussion : how may future climatic impacts affect your business? • A very short talk – Adaptation in the national and regional context • Group discussion : can you adapt? What are the issues, opportunities and barriers for you? • What next? • Approximate end 7.30pm

3. ERI The Climate in the Highlands of Scotland John McClatchey Environmental Research Institute

8. The climate from year to year varies considerably. For example the lowest temperature ever recorded in the UK (-27.2oC) has been equalled three times, twice at Braemar 11 February 1895 and 10 January 1982 and once at Altnahara 20 December 1995. January 1982 was actually a very unusual month. The first half of the month was unusually cold (about 4 deg C below average) but the second half of the month was unusually mild (over 4 deg C above average) – it is therefore recorded as close to an average month – something it was most certainly not! Therefore although climate warming was already apparent in the 1980s and 1990s, it is still possible to observe very low temperatures on a few occasions.

9. The climate from year to year varies considerably. This year has yet again demonstrated the great variability of the weather from year to year with heavy snowfall and a low of -22.3oC recorded at Altnaharra on 8 January 2010. In the 1980s, temperatures below -20oC were recorded in 1982, 1984, 1985 and 1987 in the Spey Valley. Therefore although climate warming was already apparent in the 1980s and 1990s, it is still possible to observe very low temperatures on a few occasions.

10. Temperatures at Inverness showing how there is a wide range of extreme values

11. This show a typical distribution of rainfall through the year - note the April and May minimum. In some rivers the run-off is maintained in April due to snowmelt.

12. As well as temperature variations from year to year, there is a substantial variation across the Scottish Highlands. The Eastern Highlands are warmer in summer but colder in winter than the Western Highlands The most obvious differences in precipitation totals. On the high ground in some parts of the Western Highlands the annual precipitation totals increase by about 4.5 mm/m i.e. 4500 mm over 1000m. This means precipitation totals of in excess of 5.5 metres per year are possible. The increase of precipitation with altitude is much less in the Eastern Highlands perhaps only increasing by 1000 mm over 1000m.

13. Periods of prolonged rainfall can lead to widespread flooding, especially in winter and early spring when soils are usually near saturation and snowmelt can be a contributing factor. An example was 5-6 February 1989, when prolonged rainfall occurred over the western Highlands including the headwaters of rivers such as the Ness and Spey. This, combined with high tides, led to considerable flooding in the Inverness area and the destruction of a railway bridge over the River Ness that had stood since 1862. In a 48 hour period over 200 mm of rain fell, with a new Scottish record for a 2-day total of 306 mm at Kinloch Hourn.

14. Group discussion questions: Discussion time 15 mins How has current climatic variability impacted on your current business activities? How do you cope with these impacts on a day to day basis? What climate information do you currently use to help you plan your business activities? What other information would help you?

15. ERI Climate change projections and adaptation John McClatchey Environmental Research Institute

16. Typical mountain scene in June the 1960s to 1980s Coire an t-Sneachda, Cairngorm, mid-June

17. Key Findings for N Scotland High emissions scenario 2020’s Increase in winter mean temperature + 1ºC (0.1º – 2.0º) Increase in summer mean temperature + 1.2ºC (0.5º – 2.1º) These changes are like moving south to N or central England Increase in annual mean precipitation +1% (-6% to +5% Increase in winter mean precipitation +4% (-5% to +14%) Decrease in summer mean precipitation -2% (-12% to +8%) This could mean more winter flooding

18. Key findings for North Scotland, 2050s High emissions scenario Increase in winter mean temperature +1.8ºC (0.7 - 3.0ºC) Increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC (0.9 - 3.9ºC) This would be like moving south to S England or Brittany Increase in winter mean precipitation is 13% (3% to 26%) Decrease in summer mean precipitation -10% (-24% to 3%) This could lead to a large increase in winter flooding and more severe low river flows and droughts in summer

19. What do these changes mean for the National Park? • For example: • Higher winter precipitation could mean more frequent winter floods • Higher temperatures could mean less winter snowfall • Drier summers could mean drying out of some peaty areas and reduced river flows • Could periods of heavy rainfall in winter become more frequent? (the greatest 5 minute to 24 rainfall totals are typically found in England in summer but the largest 24 hour total in Scotland occurred in winter)

20. Change in mean temperature (high emissions scenario) 2020s 2050s

21. Summer precipitation changes high emissions scenario (%) 2020’s 2050’s 2080’s

22. Winter precipitation changes high emissions scenario (%) 2020’s 2050’s 2080’s

28. The future scene in the mountains in June? Coire an t-Sneachda, Cairngorm, mid-June

29. Group discussion questions: What are the likely direct and indirect impacts of climate change on your businesses activities? Are there opportunities as well as negative impacts? Is this level of information useful to you? - if not what is needed to help you identify impacts? Discussion time 15 mins

30. Climate change adaptation Ailsa Villegas Sustainable Development Officer, Highland Council

31. The strategic aim of the Scottish Government Climate Adaptation Framework is: “To increase Scotland’s resilience to the impacts of climate change through its people, and the natural and economic systems on which they depend”

32. The Scottish Government hope to achieve this through supporting the following activities: • Improve the understanding of the consequences of a changing climate, and both the challenges and opportunities it presents; • Equip stakeholders with the skills and tools needed to adapt to a changing climate; and • Integrate climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation.

33. Highland Council Adaptation Action: • Council Programme “Produce and implement a climate change strategy for the Highlands which will reduce our impact on the environment and adapt our services to cope with the impact of climate change” • Single Outcome Agreement “All in Highland have a duty and responsibility to take action to both mitigate and adapt to climate change, and to promote the sustainable development and well being of our local communities.” • Adaptation Strategy for Highland. • Actions to build resilience to the threats. • Develop understanding of how climate change will impact on our communities. • Develop potential opportunities.

34. Strategic tourism plans & adaption: assess tourism product’ s abilities to adapt & provide adaptation guidance to sector Other tourism sector adaptation activity in Clim-ATIC 2. ‘Destination Åre’ – adaptation to future travel patterns • Developing Åre into a destination where tourists are less dependent on the car Future tourism prospects for Finnish Lapland 3. Tourism huts and education, Greenland • Designing prototypes for zero footprint accommodation huts • Climate change tourism – educating locals and visitors

35. Group discussion questions: Should you, and can you, prepare for, and adapt to the projected impacts? What will help you to prepare and adapt better – policy, funding, regulation information, examples/case studies, training, study tours, professional advice etc. Discussion time 15 mins