1 / 9

Predictions and Uncertainty

Predictions and Uncertainty. 2013. “Ice Free”. Significant periods of open water conditions throughout large areas of the Arctic by 2025. Arctic Resource Exploitation. PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE 50 MILLION BARREL EQUIVALENT FIELD IN MARKED SECTOR. 100% 50-100% 30-50% 10-30% <10%

portia
Download Presentation

Predictions and Uncertainty

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Predictions and Uncertainty 2013 “Ice Free”

  2. Significant periods of open water conditions throughout large areas of the Arctic by 2025

  3. Arctic Resource Exploitation PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE 50 MILLION BARREL EQUIVALENT FIELD IN MARKED SECTOR 100% 50-100% 30-50% 10-30% <10% Negligible Alaska Alaska Alaska CANADA CANADA CANADA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA Greenland Greenland Greenland NORWAY NORWAY NORWAY PURPLE OVERLAYS = POTENTIAL / FUTURE EEZ & ECS RESOLUTIONS RED OVERLAYS = UNDISPUTED EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES 3

  4. Security Implications Climate Change Impacts Factors Response • Food • Water • Shelter • Energy • Health • Weather • Ocean • Land • Space • Exposure • Sensitivity • Adaptability • Defense • Diplomacy • Development Implies a National/Global“whole of government” approach 4

  5. Navy Climate Interests • Operations & Plans • Increasing Arctic maritime activity • Adaptation partnerships opportunities • Potential increase in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response • Installations & Environment • Impact of sea level rise • Water resources • Natural & cultural resources • Wild-cards • Ocean acidification • Abrupt climate change • Geoengineering It’s all about Readiness … today … and tomorrow 5 5

  6. Strategic Objectives Ensure U.S. Arctic sovereignty and provide homeland defense Provide ready naval forces to respond to crisis and contingencies to maintain security and stability Preserve freedom of the seas Promote partnerships within the U.S. Government and international allies Key Missions • Maritime Security • Search and Rescue • Sea Control • Power Projection • Freedom of Navigation • Disaster Response/Defense Support of Civil Authorities In the near to mid-term, the Navy will concentrate on improving operational capabilities/expertise/capacity, and extending reach. We will engage interagency and international partners to achieve strategic objectives

  7. What does “militarize the Arctic” mean?

  8. Arctic Sea Route Navigability Bering Strait (BS) Transpolar Route (TPR) (4,170 NM) Open Water Shoulder Open Water Shoulder Shoulder Shoulder 2012 2012 483 Vessels 0 Vessels 2020 2020 2025 2025 1,000 Vessels 100 Vessels 2030 2030 • Mid Jun • Mid Sep • Mid Dec • Late Aug • Mid Sep • Early Oct Northern Sea Route (NSR) Northwest Passage (NWP) (4,740 NM) (5,225 NM) Shoulder Open Water Open Water Shoulder Shoulder Shoulder 2012 2012 44 Vessels 51 Vessels 2020 2020 2025 2025 450 Vessels 200 Vessels 2030 2030 • Early Aug • Late Aug • Mid Sep • Early Oct • Mid Sep • Late Oct • Significant restrictions to navigability > 40% sea ice • Recommend ship have minimal ice hardening with icebreaker escort • Vessel data from ONI 10-40% sea ice • Navigable by open ocean vessels without icebreaker escort Open Water Polar routes will gradually open. Transit season is short. Maritime activity growth only 2-4% of global shipping. Will not replace the Suez or Panama Canals as primary shipping routes.

More Related