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Modeling Group

Explore specific NWP improvements for nowcasting, from PBL schemes to cloud-top PBL effects, and suggest international collaborations for experimentation. Address uncertainties, education, ensemble use, and future computer challenges.

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Modeling Group

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  1. Modeling Group Onvlee, Dudhia, Auger, Cober, Lean, Alexander, Milbrandt, Steiner, Brown

  2. Questions • Identify specific development/improvement efforts that the NWP community can make to improve the performance of NWP in the nowcasting range • New ideas and techniques to improve/optimize the direct/indirect use of NWP for nowcasting. • Suggestions for international collaboration in experimentation concerning the NWP use in nowcasting

  3. Identify specific development/improvement efforts that the NWP community can make to improve the performance of NWP in the nowcasting range • Not just convection: stable BL • Sensitivity to PBL schemes as much asmicrophysics • PBL depth, water vapor, vertical structure, grey zone (< 1 km) • Surface initialization: snow, physiographic data, complex terrain resolution • Downscaling/post-processing products (terrain, fog) • Verifying • PBL/turbulence in grey zone

  4. Short-range physics effects? • PBL development of turbulence • Microphysics, aerosol, double-moment, tuning • Shallow cumulus even at cloud-permitting scale (cloud-top PBL) • High-frequency radiation calls (for cloud motion) • Cloud initialization uncertainty • Surface uncertainty (hi-res analysis can be used)

  5. Use of ensembles (deterministic v ensemble resolution) in nowcasting – how? • Uncertainties (analysis, LBC, model physics, cloud analysis, surface) • Education and training in use of models datasets at high resolution • Next generation of computers changes physics problems to be addressed

  6. Suggestions for international collaboration in experimentation concerning the NWP use in nowcasting • Field programs (PBL, shallow cu, precipitation, process understanding) • Modelers need to be involved • (FDPs, RDPs) • Shallow cumulus • Convective initiation (UK, Canada) • HYMEX (hydrology cycle) • FROST14 (winter weather, Russia)

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