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Modeling Work Group

Modeling Work Group. WECC - TEPPC Technical Advisory Subcommittee Meeting March 3, 2009. Activity Update. Tom Miller Pacific Gas & Electric. Model Working Group . Focus: 2012 Case and 2009 Study Cycle Calibrating Economic Dispatch and Resulting Transmission Flows What’s Hot Hydro Modeling

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Modeling Work Group

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  1. Modeling Work Group WECC - TEPPCTechnical Advisory Subcommittee MeetingMarch 3, 2009 Activity Update Tom MillerPacific Gas & Electric

  2. Model Working Group • Focus: 2012 Case and 2009 Study Cycle • Calibrating Economic Dispatch and Resulting Transmission Flows • What’s Hot • Hydro Modeling • Transmission Wheeling • Modeling Demand Response • Combined Cycle Modeling

  3. Hydro Modeling Task Force • PLF for California Hydro Projects • Consulting with PG&E Hydro Experts • Found CA Hydro has more weekly variation than NW • Current Strategy is to convert 1/3 to 1/2 CA to PLF with remaining fixed • Develop PLF + Wind Modeling Process • “Market Price” Hydro Dispatch: Ventyx presenting new “market price” based hydro dispatch at HMTF Meeting this week!

  4. Investigative Study:Transmission Wheeling • Issue: for regional economy power transfers may need to consider wheeling costs incurred to deliver power from “source” to “sink” • Assuming “zero” $/MWh Wheeling may underestimate marginal costs • Many production cost models assume wheeling costs • Investigative Study of Wheeling Charges: start with 2012 Base case • Three Test Cases: regional charges at $2/MWh, $4/MWh, and $6 MWh for comparison to the $0/MWh wheeling charge • Key Results: Compare flows on several major transmission paths and regional dispatch • Mini-Report:what was done, results, findings, conclusions • Test Case $4/MWh Completed: to be reviewed by MWG • Based On Study Findings and Research the MWG to develop recommendation for TEPPC dataset

  5. Investigative Study:Demand Response Programs • Purpose: figure out how to represent demand response programs (DRP) in the TEPPC database. • Currently DRP are not modeled • DRP are considered energy limited resources • DRP have significant contribution to planning reserves • Test Case (2012 Base): Model CA 2500 MW Existing DRP (CEC) • DRP modeled as high cost CT’s • CT’s linked to a few buses for CA Sub-Regions • Calibrate so units run maximum of 80-100 hours per year. • Base On Study Findings and Research MWG to Develop recommendation for TEPPC dataset

  6. Combined Cycle Modeling • Modeling Combined Cycles is Complicated • Current modeling OK for base-load operation • Future Workhorse: CC stack expected to provide operational flexibility • Need to capture efficiency through its operating range • Yardsticks: CEC provided list of CC’s with configurations (CT’s, HRSG) • CEMS Data: develop multi-block modeling with commensurate heat-rates • Investigative Study to Assess Potential Impact

  7. Upcoming MWG Activities Next HMTF Conference Call: Wednesday March 4th at 10:00 PST Next MWG Conference Call: Thursday March 12, 10:00 to 11:30 AM (PST)

  8. Comments & Questions? • Please send any comments, concerns and/or questions to Tom Miller

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