Understanding CCC Students and Enrollment Trends

1. “The CCC Student” A Straw Person Proposal Prepared for theStrategic Enrollment Management Taskforce Contact Information: Curriculum and Reporting Judy Redder, ext 2313

2. Table of Contents • Introduction • An overview of all CCC students? • What we know so far… • An examination of our CCC 2007-08 credit-taking student • A closer look at the community areas our credit-taking students hail from • Oregon’s employment situation and its economic forecast • Suggested enrollment and marketing goals…

3. Introduction: Purpose: To begin a conversation about what the available student data reflects… Questions… • who are CCC students? • what are the communities we serve? • should student enrollment guide strategy? • what about potential markets…both industry and student? • where should we focus our recruitment / marketing? • where have we been successful? • what can we do better? • what impact will Oregon’s economic and revenue forecast have on education? … and to examine together, CCC’s student successful enrollment activity.

4. student characteristics and credit load over time the counties/communities CCC serves the communities we serve and the students within the community practice that impact our ability to be ‘knowledgeable’ about our students and programs sub-target populations for marketing, recruitment, and retention Oregon’s economic future and how it (may) relate to CCC enrollment efforts Introduction: Intended Outcome: To become more knowledgeable about: …and together identify what we do well, what we can do better, identify / create sub-targets for marketing, for recruitment, persistence, and for retention efforts.

5. Introduction: The data sources used for this proposal are: • Occurs Data • Institutional Data • State Employment Data • Census Data • Other Contracted Services

6. Data sources are OCCURS data, Internal institutional data, And represents ALL Clackamas Community College students… Introduction: Let’s begin by assessing CCC student characteristics and credit-load over the last five years.

7. Who are CCC students… Our known gender ratio is closely split Male student population up about 18%; female student population up about 12 %; and Undeclared up over 235% over a 5 years period. Who are these unknown students…are they degree seeking, community ed, developmental ed… are they credit taking students?

8. Who are CCC students… The age of our student population is changing…. ….with more traditional aged students and younger than 17 enrolling for classes.

9. Who are CCC students… CCC’s age distribution compared to other Oregon community colleges… OCCURS 2005-06 Headcount – Table 13 (1/25/07) … identifies where we may differ from other community colleges.

10. Ethnicity Who are CCC students… • Largest population growth is in… • Undeclared = 108.88%(n=6144) • Native Am = 65.38% (n=136) • Black = 51.30% (n=118) • Hispanic = 50.80% (n=1062) • Asian/Pac = 43.42% (n=310) • White = 11.25% (n=3849) Who are these unknown students…are they degree seeking, community ed, developmental ed… are they in need of special resources…why do we have such a large number of undeclared?

11. What do we know so far… Enrollment (Headcount) Highlights • Headcount is up 36.4% over 5 years • Minority headcount is up by 40 to 60% over 5 years, • We’re doing well with 17-20 and under students • We’re seeing a jump in non-credit course taking (73.53% over 5 years) • Non-credit accounts for 51.33% of our student HC in 2007-08 • Full-time enrollment/headcount is down 1.61%; half-time is up 3.74%; and less than half-time is up more than 17% over 5 years

12. What do we know so far… Credit taking patterns have changed… …more students are taking classes for less than ½ time and non-credit …and, non-credit course taking is growing at a faster rate than credit course taking.

13. We also know that… Credit taking students make up a smaller percentage of our student population than before… Community areas with higher persistence rates = Molalla/Colton; Estacada; Clack Co non-dist; Mult Co; Wash Co; and OR – non Metro Community areas with lower persistence rates = Gladstone; Oregon City / Beavercreek; and Wilsonville …And of those credit taking students fewer are less likely to persist - taking three terms of classes in one year.

14. We also know… Over 30,000 Clackamas County residents attended an Oregon community college in 2005-06 …and less than 70% of Clackamas Community College students come from Clackamas County (OCCURS, Table 15 1/17/07 and Table 15 3/3/2006)

15. Let’s dig a little deeper and look closer at our 2007-2008 students …. The following slides reference credit taking students. A credit taking student is ANY student who took at least one class for credit at CCC during 2007-08 academic year. This includes ACC and all other special category of students.

16. In 2007-08 … We know CCC’s greatest % of credit bearing students …came from Estacada/Eagle Creek, Molalla/Colton and West Linn areas

17. 2007-08 students … We also know that Distance Learning… …is utilized by students from all areas with 63.3% being Female (CCC Institutional student and enrollment data)

18. 2007-08 students … We also know that students who took credit classes self-identified into the following program areas … Cont’

19. Cont’ …and this may help us identify sub-targets for marketing and recruitment.

20. Additional outside data – MPR Associates, Inc. (Contracted Data Analysis and Trend Reporting, in progress 2007-08) Program areas have historically been difficult to identify for a variety of reasons…. MPR - Preliminary Task One Report – 06/2008 - How do we better align student intent with student course taking activity? This is an important question when identifying target groups such as ESL, Adult Basic Ed, Adult HS Diploma, and Remedial for resources. …and may differ from the student’s course taking activity Cont’

21. Cont’ Additional outside data – MPR: Something more to think about… • LDC course-taking jumped between 2001-02 and 2003-04 with an overall increased of 38% since 2001-02 • Remedial course-taking has decreased more than 30% since 2001-02 • Is this because fewer entering students need remedial? • Do students feel their resources are better used on college level courses? • Does this reflect students opting out of taking remedial courses, even when placement tests indicate they need remedial course work? …should Clackamas explore this enrollment change further to identify true cause and impact on student success?

22. Cont’ Additional outside data – MPR Can we better leverage students who take Adult Basic Skills courses … • 2004-05 ABS student cohort – 20% of ABS students transitioned into credit taking students • Approximately 80% of ABS students who enroll for credit did so the same year • 14% enrolled for credit the next year • 7% enrolled for credit two years later MPR - Preliminary Task Two Report – 06/2008 …into certificate and degree seeking students?

23. Let’s now examine our credit taking student population within their community areas The following slides represents information from 2000 and 2006 census data

24. Community Area… What do we know about Canby residents… • Population = approximately 12780 • Largest Minority Population - 15.5% Hispanic • About 18% but did not graduate from HS • About 28% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 29% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 52% of school age students were in 1-8 grades Census 2000 data … and how will that inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

25. Cont’ - Canby Area In 2007- 08, 1162 Canby students attended CCC • 49% (569) took credit classes • 13.5% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 30% identify as Transfer student – more than avg. – 21.4 • 22% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 5% identify as Developmental Ed – more than avg. 4.3 • 19.3% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 14.0% took at least one DL class • 36.5% are between the ages of 18-20 • 50.6% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 25% of Tech/Cert students are 18-20; 20% are between 21-26 • 51.8% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

26. Community Area… What do we know about Clackamas/ Happy Valley residents… • Population = approximately 10100 • Largest Minority Population – 13% Asian, 12% Black • About 28% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 40% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 60% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 57% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census Data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

27. Cont’ – Clackamas/Happy Valley Area In 2007- 08, 1274 Clackamas/Happy Valley students attended CCC • 48% (606) took credit classes • 11.9% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 30% identify as Transfer student – more than avg. – 21.4 • 29% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 6.6% identify as Developmental Ed – more than avg. 4.3 • 19.1% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 16.3% took at least one DL class • 35.9% are between the ages of 18-20 • 59.9% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 31.8% of Tech/Cert students are 18-20; 46.4% are between 21-34 • 62.5% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

28. Community Area… What do we know about Estacada/Eagle Creek resident… • Population = approx 2400 • Largest Minority Population – 12.5% Hispanic • About 28% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 30% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 24% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 51.2% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

29. Cont’ – Clackamas/Happy Valley Area In 2007- 08, 615 Estacada/Eagle Creek students attended CCC • 55% (340) took credit classes • 8.5% attended full-time (less than avg.-10.7) • 24% identify as Transfer student – more than avg. – 21.4 • 24% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 3.8% identify as Developmental Ed – lower than avg. 4.3 • 19.% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 17% took at least one DL class • 32.6% are between the ages of 18-20 • 56.6% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 16.8% of Tech/Cert students are 18-20; 45.8% are between 21-25 • 77% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

30. Community Area… What do we know about Gladstone residents… • Population = approximately 11438 • Largest Minority Population – 6.1% Hispanic • About 13% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 32% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 33% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 47% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

31. Cont’ – Gladstone Area In 2007-08, 752 Gladstone students attended CCC • 52% (394) took credit classes • 10.9% attended full-time (slightly more than avg.-10.7) • 27% identify as Transfer student – more than avg. – 21.4 • 25% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 5.3% identify as Developmental Ed – higher than avg. 4.3 • 19.5% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 11.7% took at least one DL class • 32.9% are between the ages of 18-20 • 10% of Transfer students are 18-20; and,15% 17-21 • 31.8% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 46.4% are between 21-34 • 42.8% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

32. Community Area… What do we know about Milwaukie residents… • Population = approximately 20490 • Largest Minority Population – 4.0 Hispanic and 2.4 Asian • About 9.6% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 30.5% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 32.6% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 44% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

33. Cont’ – Milwaukie Area In 2007-08, 1681 Milwaukie students attended CCC… • 45% (756) took credit classes • 14.8% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 22% identify as Transfer student – slightly more than avg. – 21.4 • 28% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 4.6% identify as Developmental Ed – slightly higher than avg. 4.3 • 20.8% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 15.5% took at least one DL class • 28.9% are between the ages of 18-20 • 41.2% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 31.8% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 46.4% are between 21-34 • 57.1% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

34. Community Area… What do we know about Molalla/Colton residents… • Population = approximately 5647 • Largest Minority Population – 10.6 Hispanic • About 18% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 34.6% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 27.3% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 55% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

35. Cont’ – Molalla/Colton Area In 2007-08 986 Molalla/Colton students attended CCC • 56.4% (556) took credit classes • 13.5% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 23% identify as Transfer student –more than avg. – 21.4 • 24% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 4.3% identify as Developmental Ed –avg. 4.3 • 21% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 14% took at least one DL class • 34.7% are between the ages of 18-20; 14% age15-17 • 45.6% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 27.6% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 28.3% are between 21-34 • 37.5% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

36. Community Area… What do we know about Oak Grove residents… • Population = approximately 12808 • Largest Minority Population – 5.9 Hispanic • About 14% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 29% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 30% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 45% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

37. Cont’ – Oak Grove Area In 2007-08, 1675 Oak Grove students attended CCC • 50% (851) took credit classes • 13.0% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 24% identify as Transfer student –more than avg. – 21.4 • 22% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 8.2% identify as Developmental Ed – more than avg. 4.3 • 21% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 14% took at least one DL class • 28% are between the ages of 18-20; 18.1% age15-17 • 45% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 28% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 61.6% are between 21-34 • 61.4% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

38. Community Area… What do we know about Oregon City / Beavercreek residents… • Population = more than 25754 combined • Largest Minority Population – 5.0 Hispanic • About 14% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 28% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 33% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 47% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

39. Cont’ – Oregon City / Beavercreek Area In 2007-08, 1379 Oregon City / Beavercreek students attended CCC • 51% (705) took credit classes • 13.0% attended full-time (more than avg.-10.7) • 25.5% identify as Transfer student –more than avg. – 21.4 • 27% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 6.2% identify as Developmental Ed – more than avg. 4.3 • 14.5% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 13% took at least one DL class • 27.5% are between the ages of 18-20; 14% age15-17 • 38% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 22% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 39.9% are between 21-34 • 74.4% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

40. Community Area… What do we know about West Linn residents… • Population = approximately 22261 • Largest Minority Population – 2.9 Hispanic; 2.9 Asian • About 4.6% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 17% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 26% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 45% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

41. Cont’ – West Linn In 2007-08, 940 West Linn students attended CCC • 55% (517) took credit classes • 10.0% attended full-time (slightly lower than avg.-10.7) • 30% identify as Transfer student –more than avg. – 21.4 • 13% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 3.9% identify as Developmental Ed – lower than avg. 4.3 • 19.9% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 13.5% took at least one DL class • 29.2% are between the ages of 18-20; 27.7% age15-17 • 37% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 22% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 36.7% are between 21-34 • 60% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

42. Community Area… What do we know about Wilsonville residents… • Population = approximately 13991 • Largest Minority Population – 6.9 Hispanic • About 7.4% but did not graduate from HS (25 & older) • About 20% graduated from HS (includes equivalency) • About 28% have some college but no degree • In 2000 - 48% of school aged students were in 1-8 grade Census data 2000 … and how will this inform our marketing and recruitment efforts? Cont’

43. Cont’ – Wilsonville In 2007-08, 537 Wilsonville students attended CCC • 45.6% (245) took credit classes • 6.5% attended full-time (lower than avg.-10.7) • 29.4% identify as Transfer student –more than avg. – 21.4 • 20% identified as Technical Degree/Certificate – lower than avg. – 30.0 • 3.9% identify as Developmental Ed – lower than avg. 4.3 • 17.1% are new since 2005 – fewer new students in 2008 • 15.0% took at least one DL class • 25.7% are between the ages of 18-20; 24% age15-17 • 37.5% of Transfer students are 18-20 • 16.3% of Tech/Cert students are also 18-20; 36.7% are between 21-34 • 67% of Dev. Ed students are between 17-20 (Current institutional student and enrollment data) …and who by their behavior and demographics create a unique sub-target group of students… Can this help inform enrollment strategies?

44. Let’s take a minute and review Oregon’s Employment situation and Oregon’s Economic and Revenue forecast Data sources: www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/economic/executive.pdf www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/index.shtml www.oea.das.state.or.us/DAS/OEA/demographic.shtml

45. Oregon’s employment situation is changing… • OEA forecasts a recession similar to 1991 with about 1.6% job loss • Major industries with job loss • Manufacturing – durable goods manufacturing; wood products; computer and electronic product manufacturing; and transportation equipment • Financial activities • Professional and business services • Computer and electronic equipment sector will see a decline of around 3% in 08 and 09 • Construction employment down by about 1-2% over the next year and would this impact Clackamas and its future academic and certificate program planning? Cont’

46. Cont’ • Major areas of job growth • Information sector will have slow growth in 2009 • Educational and health services will continue to be one of the most rapidly expanding industries over the long term • Leisure and hospitality will continue to recover • Government sector will stay strong • Nondurable goods manufacturing will continue to rise • Demographic forecast • Oregon’s population will continue to grow at a moderately high rate through in-migration • 18-24 year olds will grow at an average of 0.3% annually (slower than previous years) • K-12 population will show very slow growth which will translate into slow growth in school enrollments • 25-64 age group will see positive growth through 2077 …and could this possibly impact Clackamas future academic and certificate program planning

47. Suggested enrollment and marketing goals… • Reverse credit taking trend – at minimum increase credit taking students to 52% and decrease non-credit to 48%, and find ways to encourage non-credit students to become credit students. • Better identify student intent by updating student areas of study or by refining course taking methodology to better identify student intent • Capture student characteristics better • Focus on transition efforts for ABS students • Increase new credit taking student admissions (by community) by 2% and increase overall student enrollment back to 2006 and 2007 levels which means an average increase of between 10-20% by community. Cont’

48. Cont’ • Internal data suggests that Canby, Clack/Happy Valley, West Linn, and Wilsonville have a high % of students who identify as transfer students and a strong feeder base for traditional student recruitment (Census data) • Continue to market technical / certificate programs to 21-34 year olds in Milwaukie area • Leverage Developmental Education in Clackamas/Molalla and Oak Grove community areas because of existing population demographic • Continue to gather and analyze data…continue the conversation.