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Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS)

Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS). Li Yuet Sim Hong Kong Observatory May 2009. Major Functions. Integrate all TC related information and data Assimilate TC track data for computation of an ensemble track for operational forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS)

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  1. Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS) Li Yuet Sim Hong Kong Observatory May 2009

  2. Major Functions • Integrate all TC related information and data • Assimilate TC track data for computation of an ensemble track for operational forecasting • Compute key parameters for evaluating local impact to facilitate warning decisions • Generate and dispatch forecast and warning products to the local public and other weather centres

  3. TC Warning Bulletins/Messages • TC within 10-30N, 105-125E, issue 3-hourly shipping warning • TC within 0-30N, 105-125E, issue additional GMDSS urgent messages • Provide a short synopsis including actual position, intensity, max wind speed, movement, high wind radii, etc) • Provide 24-hourly TC forecast position and intensity up to 72 hours ahead for shipping warning

  4. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (sample 3-hrly shipping warning bulletin) AT 142100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (0813) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTCTWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N)ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTCTWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTCTWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N)ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (128.1 E)MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

  5. TC Products for the Public over the Internet • Provide TC tracks twice a day • Provide TC tracks in every 3 hours

  6. System Design and Architecture of TIPS • Client-server architecture • Programming language – Java

  7. Data sources • Subjective forecast positions from HKO and other meteorological centres • TC analysis data, such as satellite and radar fixes • NWP model forecast positions (HKO, CMA, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO and NCEP) • Satellite and radar images

  8. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  9. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  10. Toolbox EC – ECMWF UK – EGRR JA – JMA NC – NCEP R2 – 20-km ORSM R6 – 60-km ORSM CM – CMA JE – JMA ensemble cluster EE – ECMWF ensemble mean TE – ensemble mean of Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System EN – Model ensemble

  11. Display of Forecast Tracks from NWP Models & Other Meteorological Centres

  12. Plotting of Satellite and Radar Fixes

  13. Overlaying of Satellite and Radar Images

  14. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  15. Calculation of Ensemble Track with data from NWP models

  16. Calculation of Ensemble Track Motion Vector Consensus 72 48 72 24 72 48 JMA 24 ECMF Ensemble 24 48 NCEP EGRR 24 48 24 48

  17. Calculation of Ensemble Track Motion Vector Consensus 72 48 72 24 72 48 JMA 24 ECMF Ensemble 24 48 NCEP EGRR 24 48 24 48

  18. Calculation of Ensemble Track • Motion Vector Consensus - Example Motion Vector Position Fengshen 2008/06/18 12UTC

  19. EPS Strike Probability Maps

  20. Modification of TC track

  21. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  22. Decision Support Critical information: distance and time of TC’s closest approach to HK, location and time of landfall, onset and cessation of strong and gale force winds, etc. Probability contours of gale & strong winds

  23. Probability Forecast of Strong/Gale Winds Strong wind probability isopleths for 4 out of 8 reference stations Gale wind probability isopleths for CLK 100% 50% 10%

  24. Calculation of Key Parameters 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. (Analysis  Calculate Key Parameters) • Choose TC track and track initial time. • Choose intensity or other categories. • Select overlays by checking the boxes. • User can scroll down to find more overlays. Repeat 2-4 to select all overlays you want. • Click [Calculate] to generate the report

  25. Prediction of Local Storm Surge Levels

  26. Local wind direction vs TC position

  27. TC Rainfall Forecasting Tool – Analogue Method

  28. Evening Thunderstorms Forecasting Tool

  29. Hot Zones Red zone Tmax34C Blue zone T / STS Green zone TS / TD

  30. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  31. Shipping warning bulletin, GMDSS TC message, etc. TC track for local public over the Internet, etc. Other forecasting systems using TC information MINDS TIPS Product Generation Server Centralized database Other applications Data for Downstream Systems

  32. Generation of Forecast Bulletins and Warning Products for the Public

  33. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  34. Display past TC warning tracks

  35. Display past TC warning tracks Overlay  Show Past Tracks T + 48hrs • Show past 5 or 10 warning tracks • Red dots show the past TC forecast position at T+0 T + 24hrs T + 0hr

  36. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  37. Handy Tools An electronic version of common handy tools to facilitate forecasts in analyzing TC information.

  38. Major Features of TIPS • TC Analysis • TC Forecasting • Decision Support • Data for downstream systems • Past TC Track Display • Handy Tools • Online Help

  39. Online User Manual

  40. Thank You!

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