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NAME : STATUS AND ISSUES

NAME : STATUS AND ISSUES. NAME Homepage: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name. SWG-5 Agenda and Format. 6 Sessions: (1) NAME Overview * NOAA developments * commitments from the U.S. Government / research institutions (2) NAME International Partnerships

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NAME : STATUS AND ISSUES

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  1. NAME : STATUS AND ISSUES NAME Homepage: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

  2. SWG-5 Agenda and Format 6 Sessions: (1)NAME Overview * NOAA developments * commitments from the U.S. Government / research institutions (2)NAME International Partnerships * commitments from the Mexican Government / research institutions (3)NAME 2004 Field Campaign Breakout Session * technically and logistically focusedpresentations (4)NAME Forecast Operations Centers (FOCs) * functions / coordination (5)NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies * roadmap * NAME CPT (6)    SWG Executive Session (Open) * actions / SWG rotation / next meeting Raise issues by session for discussion:

  3. NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for determining the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation over the region. Topographic and Sea-Land Influence • OBJECTIVES: • Better understanding and • simulation of: • warm season convective • processes in complex terrain • (TIER I); • intraseasonal variability of • the monsoon (TIER II); • response of warm season • circulation and precipitation • to slowly varying boundary • conditions (SST, soil • moisture) (TIER III); • monsoon evolution and • variability (TIER I, II, III). Intraseasonal Variability Boundary Forcing? YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Planning --------------| Preparations --------------| Data Collection - - - ----------------| Principal Research ----------------------------------| Data Management -----------------------------------------|

  4. NAME Programmatic Issues • How can we accelerate progress towards achieving NAME objectives in view of recent NOAA developments? • PACS/GAPP merger, ISIP (Jin Huang) • CPT’s (Ming Ji) • Have we established the appropriate linkages to agencies and programs?

  5. NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE Science Working Group Project Office • NAME Forecast • Operations Centers • NAME International Project • Support Team

  6. NAME Programmatic Issues • How do we improve coordination between the SWG, the Project Office, the INPST and the Forecast Operations Centers? • Project Office activities / actions / accomplishments (Gus Emmanuel) • Plans for structure and functions of Forecast Operations Centers (Bob Maddox, Art Douglas, Miguel Cortez, Jose Meitin) • Plans for integrating the NAME observing system platforms (NAME PI’s)

  7. INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS • SMN Meteorological Infrastructure • 79 synoptic stations • 16 radiosonde sites • 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003) • 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico) • Historical and real-time data • NAME Forecast Operations Centers (meteorologists,technicians) • (2) Universities and Institutions in Mexico and Central America • UNAM • IMTA • CICESE • University of Costa Rica • University of Vera Cruz • University of Guadalajara • others • Equipment, personnel, transportation, data collection, research

  8. NAME International Partnership Issues • What can we do to improve promotion of NAME within Mexico and Central America? • What are the commitments from the Mexican Government / Research Institutions? • equipment, personnel, student participation, research • What can NAME do that Mexico will sustain after NAME 2004? • What should we do to improve Pan American coordination / collaboration?

  9. NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN (JJAS 2004) Enhanced Precipitation Gauge Network R.V. Ron Brown Radiosondes/PIBALS Radar/Profiling/Radiosondes

  10. NAME-2004 Field Campaign Issues • How do we integrate the NAME observing system platforms? • science plans (key questions, measurement protocols, data dissemination plan) • observational weaknesses over Tier 1 (e.g. flux towers) • EOP/IOP field coordination requirements • unfunded activities worth incorporating • ongoing coordination with modeling and data assimilation groups • Ships • UNAM El Puma ; Mexican Navy; CIBNOR; others? • Deployment at the mouth of the GOC-NSF • What about a ship with soundings but no radar? • Aircraft • NAME has 56 P-3 flight hours. What about the additional 54 hours? • Coordination issues with SMEX04, NASA JSC WB-57

  11. NAME-2004 Field Campaign Issues • Soundings • Coordination of the network (ISS’s, SMN raobs, NWS raobs, ship and PIBALS) during EOP / IOP’s • Will additional NWS raobs on IOP days (4/day; 9 WFO’s; 20 IOP days) be an NWS contribution to NAME? • IOP’s: SMN (6 soundings) – vs – NWS (4 soundings) • Raingauges • sampling strategy: nests of raingauges - vs - uniform coverage. • Status of the NSF Tier 1 request

  12. SOUNDING NETWORK (Tiers I-II) SMN Radiosonde Soundings up to 4x daily at 7 sites during IOP’s NWS Radiosonde Soundings up to 4x daily at 9 sites during IOP’s PIBALS up to 4-8x daily, in higher density near Tier 1.

  13. Status on NWS Soundings for NAME(Oct. 16th meeting) • The request (360 soundings @ ~79K) was too late for the FY04 budget cycle. • Consensus: NAME has strong support from and benefits to the NWS. Interested parties ( NWS HQ, WR, SR and NCEP) agree that additional soundings should be taken. • Actions: • OST will take the lead (Jiayu Zhou) • Complete WR/SR Feasibility study (Oct. 03) • Seek NWS Endorsement via NAME briefing + funding solution to NWS S&T Committee (Dec. 03) • Meet NOAA regulations (cooperative agreement – vs - interagency agreement) • Funding: Ask for contributions from each office that supports the effort (NCEP, OST, OS, OOS). • Drop Dead Date: NAME Field Operations meeting in Tucson, AZ (April 2004)

  14. [Director: B. Maddox (Univ. of Arizona)] [Rotational Team Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

  15. [Director: B. Maddox (Univ. of Arizona)] [Rotational Team Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

  16. NAME Forecast Operations Center Issues • What are the operational procedures for the EOP / IOP’s? • Science Director rotation schedule • Forecaster selection and staffing; rotation schedule • Daily briefings / forecasts • Types of IOP days (unperturbed, MCS’s, TEW’s, surges) • Time required to engage NWS WFO’s for extra soundings • How do we increase NAME PI participation in the FOC? • Should we extend EOP/IOP’s into early September? • synoptic evaluation of summer 2003 • Status of DOD-NAME opportunity for intersection?

  17. NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper”June 2003 • Provides a strategy for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science objectives • Unveiled at NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Workshop (UMD, June 03) • Reviewed by the US CLIVAR Pan American Panel. • Emphasizes activities that bring observationalists, modelers and physical parameterization experts together to focus on key physical processes that are deficient in coupled models. NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview NAME Science Working Group* June 2003

  18. I. Multi-scale Model Development II. Multi-tier Synthesis and Data Assimilation III. Prediction and Global-scale Linkages

  19. Challenges Strengthen linkages between modeling, data assimilation and observational activities/programs • relevance - timing is everything • doesn’t happen naturally - requires programmatic nudging/support Develope “CPT-like” efforts – e.g. Phenomenological focus: diurnal cycle e.g. Key Processes: orographic forcing of convection

  20. NAME ROADMAP Pre-NAME 2004 Activities: * Diagnostics and Analysis - Model (e.g. NAMAP; Warm Season Diurnal Cycle in AGCM’s) - Reanalysis (global, regional) * NAME FOC Practice Forecasting * Workshops - NASA/CLIVAR Subseasonal Workshop / NAME Modeling Workshop - NAME SWG-5 / NAME Special Session (Puerto Vallarta) NAME 2004 Activities: * NAME EOP Forecaster Support - Forecast Discussions / Operational Assessments * Real-time Monitoring, Analysis and Forecast Products

  21. NAME ROADMAP Post-NAME 2004 Activities * Model and Forecast System Development - NAME CPT activities (simulation of convective precipitation) - Multi-scale modeling / CRM * Experimental Prediction - NAME 2004 case studies / hindcasts - Sensitivity to SST and soil moisture (operational centers) - Subseasonal prediction (e.g. TISO.MJO) * Diagnostics and Analysis - Reanalysis (global, regional, NAME data impact) - Model diagnostics (NAMAP 2) * Applications and Product Development - Assessments (Hazards, North American drought monitor) - Forecasts (North American seasonal and subseasonal) - Applications (Agriculture, Fire WX, Water Resource) * Research and Dataset Development - PACS-GAPP warm season precipitation initiative

  22. NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Issues • Are the pieces of the NAME Modeling-Observations strategy fitting together? • Are we responsive to recent NOAA developments? • Have we responded to PanAM Panel? • Has the NAME CPT focused its plans and developed a timeline? • What are the specific activities that accelerate progress towards NAME’s guiding goal? (Update roadmap) • Can we jumpstart planning for NAME 2004 follow on activities? • CLIVAR PanAM Panel has requested that we extend the timeline • Do we need working groups to develop scientific justification?

  23. Workshop goals • Bring extended NAME research community together to exchange ideas and results • Review scope of Current / Planned NAME Activities • Focus Plans for NAME 2004 Field Campaign • Field Observations • Coordination (SWG-FOC’s-Project Office) • Identify key deficiencies • Discuss future priorities • How best to capitalize on results from NAME 2004? What’s next? How to strengthen links to other process studies? • Roadmap for post NAME 2004 modeling / analysis / enhanced long-term monitoring activities (e.g. NAME CPT focus) • NOAA developments: PACS/GAPP merger, ISIP

  24. NAME DELIVERABLES • Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North American monsoon system. • More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability. • Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across Pan-America. • Measurably improved climate models that predict North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance.

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