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Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies

Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies. Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia. Themes. Resolution, science vs. technology Stem dbh as growth driver Stochastics. Model Uses. Decision-making (prediction) Research (understanding). Management Decision-making.

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Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies

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  1. Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

  2. Themes • Resolution, science vs. technology • Stem dbh as growth driver • Stochastics

  3. Model Uses • Decision-making (prediction) • Research (understanding)

  4. Management Decision-making • Prediction • Precision • Controllable variables • Match: • Available input info • Required output info

  5. Scientific Research • “Process models” • Mechanistic, realistic • Detailed • Qualitative behavior • Generate questions

  6. Science vs. Technology N, S, W, E Journal of Applied Forestry

  7. Science vs. Technology N, S, W, E Journal of Applied Forestry

  8. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list

  9. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) Inventory

  10. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) (B,N,H) Inventory Application

  11. Stand-level model Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) (B,N,H) Inventory Application

  12. Complexity, Resolution Level

  13. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction”

  14. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction” • Understanding: Two levels higher? • Prediction: Same level

  15. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction” • Understanding: Two levels higher? • Prediction: Same level Links

  16. Growth Drivers v = f(age, dbh, site) ?

  17. Growth Drivers v = f( age , dbh, {site}) ? height

  18. Growth Drivers v = f(height, dbh) Growth driven by stem thickness?

  19. Growth Drivers v = f(height, dbh) Growth driven by stem thickness?? v = f(height, resources captured)

  20. TASS Mitchell 1975

  21. Stand-level V / H = f(H, N, C) (Eichhorn 1904) N / H = g(H, N, C) C / H = h(H, N, C)

  22. C vs. H

  23. C vs. H

  24. Stochastic Models • Convenient for the modeller • Variability info? • In practice, single realization

  25. Gross Increment

  26. Stochastic Models • Convenient for the modeller • Variability info? • In practice, single realization • Worse of both worlds?

  27. Mind the Users! web.unbc.ca/~garcia

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