Urbanization and Transportation in North American Environmental key issues

1. Urbanization and Transportation in North American Environmental key issues Rodolfo LACY CEC. North America 2030, An Environmental Outlook june, 2008

2. CLIMATE CHANGE … recent news “Global levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 0.6 percent, or 19 billion tons. Additionally, methane rose by 27 million tons after nearly a decade with little or no increase.”CO2reached385 ppm CH4 380 360 340 320 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 FUENTE: NOAA, 2008.

3. Black Carbon Pollution Emerges As Major Player In Global Warming… …soot and other forms of black carbon could have as much as 60 percent of the current global warming effect of carbon dioxide. Atmospheric solar heating due to BC for the 2001 to 2003 period FUENTE: Ramanathan V and Carmichael G. 2008. Global and Regional Climate Change due to Black Carbon. Nature Geosciences, Vol. 1, p.221-227.

4. GLOBAL CHANGES Megacities can do the difference … NCAR MILAGRO project Mexico City Metropolitan Area

5. Changes in surface O3 (ppbv) between 2000 and 2100 due to anthropogenic emission changes… SOURCE: CEC, 2008. The North American Mosaic: An Overview of Key Environmental Issues SOURCE: G. Zeng, J. A. Pyle, and P. J. Young, 2008. Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global Budgets. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 369–387, 2008

6. Changes in surface O3 (ppbv) between 2000 and 2100 due to climate change… SOURCE: G. Zeng, J. A. Pyle, and P. J. Young, 2008. Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global Budgets. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 369–387, 2008

7. Human Influence Index for North America (2000) SOURCE: CEC, 2008. The North American Mosaic: An Overview of Key Environmental Issues

8. … in 2050, 40% of the total increase will come from light duty vehicles 2005 TRANSPORT 23% SOURCE: IEA,2008. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

9. IPCC SECTORAL MITIGATION POTENTIAL SOURCE: IPCC, 2007. WG3-AR4,.

10. Integrated spatial planning is the key to sustainable urban futures… Free Use

11. Future Strategy To Face Transport Challenges …  Reduction of vehicle energy consumption for all modes using existing technology for high-efficiency potential Development of strategies for non-transport alternatives, in combination with sustainable land use planning A modal shift to more environmentally-friendly modes, quickly implemented for passenger and freight transport Increased use of renewable energy in the transport sector as well, taking into account climate-efficiency as well as cost-efficiency, together with an optimal allocation of limited renewables in combination with safeguards against the increase of the carbon intensity of existing fossil fuels.    SOURCE: William & Flora Hewlett Foundation, 2008. Future Challenges of Transport and Environment

12. 3 years 2019 2020 2015 MOLINAs PROPOSAL FOR MEXICAN FUEL EFFICIENCY REGULATION SOURCE: ICCT, 2007.Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update.

13. Hydrogen  ~ HYDROCARBONS WATER Electricity Electrolysis HYDROGEN Nuclear Fossil  ELECTRICITY Renewable   ETHANOL BIODIESEL BIOMASS Biofuels TRANSPORT FUELS Fossil Fuels  GASOLINE  DIESEL  • NATURAL GAS • compressed • liquified  AIR  LPG ~ COAL  METHANOL

14. Hypothetical potential of individual technologies to lower road transport Well-to-Wheels CO2 emissions… …Mexico will produce corn ethanol for the US market and sugar cane ethanol for local consumption SOURCE: WBCSD, 2004. Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability

15. SOIL LABOR SUGAR CANE FERTLIZERS & PESTICIDES SUGAR CANE ETHANOL LIFE CYCLE SUGAR CANE HARVESTING ETHANOL DISTRIBUTION AND USE VAPOR AND ELECTRICITY COGENERATION ETHANOL STORAGE AND TRANSPORT Bagasse LIQUID WASTE DISPOSAL ALCOHOL REFINERIES

16. DAMS IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE PETROCHEMICALS DEFORESTATION AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY POWER PLANTS LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION

17. LCA MEXICO VS. BRASIL ENERGY BALANCE MJ/liter ethanol vs gasoline SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina. Motzorongo LCA.

18. gasoline LCA MEXICO VS. BRASIL GHG BALANCE % ethanol etanol vs SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina. Motzorongo LCA.

19. GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD  +50% -20% LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION … Searchinger et. al model

20. GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD  LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION … Searchinger et. al model … Dr. Paul Crutzen model N2O  3 to 5 times N2O emissions … we need global LCA standars

21. FREIGHT OPTIONS How to move each ton? 17kg CO2/ ton 230kg CO2/ton >1,000kg CO2/ton

22. NO POLICY option… Old used, dirty, and unsafety cars, called “chocolates” in Mexico, exports from the huge US market Canada and Mexico are importing used cars from the more than 14 million used vehicles US market. In Mexico there is more used cars sales than new. Many environmental and safety problems in the highways and urban areas are increasing due to these vehicles. Mexico will open the border in 2009. “Loteros” Cd. Juárez, Chihuahua

23. <6 Km/liter “CHOCOLATES” >2,450,000 used vehicles from the US, 10 to 15 years old, were exported to Mexico in 2006 and 2007 28% 51% 21% SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina from SHCP data

24. BUS RAPID TRANSIT OPTION NISSAN Diesel Hybrid Japan Olymbus LPG Hybrid New Zeland Biogas Sweden Sunbus Hydrogen EUA, ISE & Ford METROBUS Mexico

25. CONCLUSIONS “Social and economic progress is facilitated by access and by connectivity, but not by kilometers driven… car dependency is connected with inefficient land-use structures” • Transport demand reduction • Shifting to cleaner travel modes • Improvement of vehicle specific efficiency • Alternative transport fuels • Technology transfer & fair and sustainable • markets in North America

26. ¡GRACIAS ! rlacy@centromariomolina.org www.centromariomolina.org