Climate Change Mitigation: The need to include Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)

1. Climate Change Mitigation: The need to include Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Mr. Stephen Karangizi Assistant Secretary General COMESA

2. Scope • Introduction • What science says about AFOLU • Mitigation potential of agriculture in Africa • Why AFOLU • CDM a missed opportunity • The inequity under CDM • The economics of AFOLU • Technical potential of AFOLU options • Barriers • Opportunities to overcome the barriers • Framework for African Biocarbon Facility • Key Messages

3. Introduction • Africa will be hardest hit by climate with large effects on agriculture. • Poor farmers and other vulnerable groups will need help adapting to climate change. • Today agriculture contributes 14 percent of annual GHG emissions and land use change, including forest loss contributes another 19 percent. • Need to tackle the drivers of deforestation that lie outside the forestry sector. • Agriculture, forestry and other land use have a huge potential to contribute to cost mitigation of GHGs through changes in agricultural technologies, avoided deforestation and management practices. ( COMESA –CAADP)

4. What science says about AFOLU… • GHG emissions from agriculture and other land use changes are expected to increase in the future. • The potential for mitigation thro’ agriculture in Africa has been estimated at 970mtCO2e per year by 2030 – accounting for 17% of the global total with additional 14% from forestry. • Africa has significant potential in AFOLU to deliver on carbon sequestration and co-benefits such as food security, biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction.

5. Mitigation Potential of Agriculture in Africa • AFOLU 1004 Mt CO2-eq/yr until 2030

6. Technical Potential of AFOLU Options

7. Why AFOLU? • Current CDM arrangements are not facilitating greater African participation • Smallholders’ land activities (agric +) are largely responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in Africa • Tenure and ownership less controversial in small farm / land holdings than forest areas • Agric and Other land uses would potentially yield more co-benefits than REDD alone • C Markets = 118 US$ Billion while Adaptation Fund = <200 Millions

8. CDM – A Missed Opportunity for Africa 3 Registered CDM projects by Region Africa accounts for less than 3% of total CDM projects 90% of those projects are in South Africa 2.6 Africa Latin America and Caribbean 33.00 63.90 Asia and the Pacific 8 Source: http://cdm.unfccc.int

9. The inequity under CDM • CDM excludes in non-annex 1 countries the following: • Forest conservation • Avoided deforestation • Sustainable forest management • Renewable biomass • Agriculture and soil carbon Yet, all the above and A/R are credited in annex 1 countries!

10. The Economics of AFOLU • More than any other region Africa depends on agriculture and other land uses for food and economic security. • African terrestrial mitigation can be evenly split between agriculture, avoided deforestation and reforestation • Potential annual payments to Africa from terrestrial carbon: • From REDD – 500,000,000 mt @ $10/mt = $ X billion • From A/R – 500,000,000 mt @ $10/mt = $ X billion • From agriculture – 500,000,000 @ $ 10/mt = $ X billion Total $ 3X billion This is about 2.5 times average annual aid to Africa. Source: McKinsey Analysis

11. Barriers • Exclusion of soil carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation. • Methodological issues – Monitoring, Reportable and Verifiable (MRVs) • Defining the baseline • Additionality • Leakages • Permanence • Cost effectiveness • High transaction costs

12. Opportunities to overcome the barriers… • Simplify the rules of CDM. • Broaden the CDM definition of afforestation and reforestation to include agroforestry and forest rehabilitation. • Allow soil carbon sequestration and REDD plus under CDM. • Increase participation in voluntary markets. • Establish an African Biocarbon Facility to harness both public and private funds for AFOLU and REDD.

13. African BioCarbon Facility Intermediary Intermediary $ Carbon Rights $ Carbon Rights Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Buyer Buyer Buyer % of credits sold after generated Buyer % of credits sold under long term forward contracts Buyer $ Credits Buyer BioCarbon Fund $ ODA, Countries, other Investors $ Carbon credits $, tech assistance Feb, 2009 Climate Change Workshop Nairobi, Kenya 13

14. Key Messages • Across Africa, the fate of the poor and vulnerable groups are closely tied to agriculture as sources of food and economic security. • Africa must optimize the full climate change mitigation and adaptation potential by ensuring that AFOLU and REDD are included in the Post 2012 climate change agreement. • A programme of work for REDD/AFOLU readiness should be set out in the post 2012 climate change agreement. • Broaden and simplify CDM to include REDD, afforestation, reforestation, agriculture and other land uses. • Pursue the establishment of an African BioCarbon Facility to support climate change mitigation and adaptation projects, programmes and initiatives in Africa.

15. Key Messages 2 • Partnerships at two levels • Level 1 : cooperation with sister regional institutions such as SADC, EAC and IGAD • Level 2: cooperation with international institutions , Civil Society and Private Sector • Supporting Mainstreaming of Climate Change at National level ( Negotiating position, increased awareness , take advantage of opportunities particularly Bio-carbon Facility)

16. Thank youfor your attention