LESSONS FROM DROUGHT RESEARCH IN WESTERN CANADA

1. LESSONS FROM DROUGHT RESEARCH IN WESTERN CANADA Rick Lawford December 2, 2009 Lima, Peru

2. The Drought Research Initiative (DRI) is a 5-year research project funded by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) to examine the 1999 – 2004 multiyear drought on the Canadian prairies. The objectives of DRI are: 1) To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and 2) To contribute to their better prediction. The approach focuses on the physical understanding of the event rather than the statistics of drought.

3. Why DRI is important? The event: • The 1999-2004 drought was one of the worst natural disasters that Canada has ever suffered. The tools available: • Recent convergence of modelling and observational technologies provide tools for major progress. Salt storm in reservoir, Alberta, April 2004 Drifting soil in fields, Saskatchewan, April 2002

4. DRI THEMES • Quantifythe physical features, • flows of water and energy into and out of the region, and • storage and redistribution within the region • Improve the understanding of processes and feedbacks governing the • formation, • evolution, • cessation and • structure of the drought • Assess and contribute to reducing uncertainties in the prediction of drought • Compare the similarities and differences of current drought to previous droughts and those in other regions • Apply our progress to address critical issues of importance to society

5. 200 m 1. Characterize the drought Observational Networks Surface Storage Change GRACE satellite Wells in South Saskatchewan

6. DRI ASSESSMENTS OF DROUGHT INDICES DRI WORK ON THE CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHTS ADDRESSES: - ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES - SURFACE HYDROLOGY - GROUNDWATER. ISSUES BEING ADDRESSED: - THE VALUE AND USE OF GRIDDED VARIABLES VERSUS POINT VALUES. - THE VALUE OF REANALYSIS PRODUCTS. - THE UTILITY OF REMOTE SENSING DATA. - THE ADEQUACY OF VARIOUS INDICES USED TO MONITOR DROUGHT. - THE RELATIONSHIP OF INDICES TO IMPACTS.

7. Drought Characterization is an important step in drought monitoring and drought mitigation plans DRI Theme 1 directly addresses the concerns of the agriculture community for ways to characterize the extent and severity of drought. CONTINENTAL DROUGHT INDEX SATELLITE DATA (LAI) PROVINCIAL MAPS BASED ON REGIONAL MONITORING OF PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, RUNOFF ETC

8. The ability of a number of indices have been examined to assess their ability to characterize the drought • Reclamation Drought Index • Computed soil moisture • Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) • Drought Area Index (DAI) • Total water deficit • Effective Drought Index (EDI) • Bhalme-Mooley Drought Index (BMDI) • Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) • NOAA Drought Index • Drought Monitor – Short-term blend • Drought Monitor – Long-term blend • Climate Moisture Index • Percent of Normal • Deciles • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) • Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) • Palmer Z Index • (Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index) • Palmer Hydrological Severity Index (PHSI) • Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) • Crop Moisture Index (CMI) • Soil moisture anomaly index

9. Saskatoon – Ranked 12-month SPI • 12-month SPI based on 2001 Agricultural year (September 2000- August 2001)

10. ISSUES FOR DATA INTEGRATION Weekly NDVI from MODIS Data Assimilation The DRI data manager is developing integrated data sets as part of the DRI legacy. CaLDAS Calibration Validation Remote sensing data MODIS GRACE AVHRR • In-situ data • station data • CANGRID • CRU

11. VIC model estimates can be used to characterize surface hydrologic droughts (Lei Wen)

12. Streamflow: a complex and important indicator of drought: It represents the runoff generation over the upstream area which can be a large area in some cases. The streamflow at a point is affected by the amount of water drawn off upstream for irrigation and the amount that is retained in wetlands, sloughs and reservoirs. It is a visible manifestation of the “dryness” of an area for the public.

13. Results

14. INDICES AS INDICATORS OF WHEAT QUALITY DRI 2008 Calgary (Bulloch) Jul-Aug PMETc

15. -30 0 +90 +30 +60 -60 Severity & extent of the 2001-2002 drought long-term mean CMI 2001-2002 drought Moist CMI (1 Aug – 31 July) Dry 2001-2002 CMI Regional Climate Moisture Index (CMI) from climate stations near each of 25 CIPHA study areas in western Canada Area included in aerial survey of aspen mortality in 2004 (Michaelian & Hogg, CIPHA study) DRY MOIST Maps by D.T. Price, M. Siltanen & D. McKenney from Canadian gridded monthly climate (interpolations based on ANUSPLIN) (Hogg) Climate Moisture Index (CMI)

16. Lessons: • The value and utility of an index is dependent on the reliability of • the input data. • 2. Hydrological models can provide a means for filling in the gaps. • However these models must account for the effects of the non- • contributing areas on the Canadian prairies. • 3. Some variables are easier to interpret than other variables while • some variables represent more processes or larger areas. • 4. Indices that are correlated with some specific parameter that is of • specific use to the user community can have great value.

17. 3 2 A M O Y e a r l y A M O 5 - p o i n t b i n o m i a l f i l t e r 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Theme #2: Improved Understanding • Formation May 2002 • Evolution PDO (Gyakum) • Structure of the drought (Shabbar) Cessation (Szeto) (Bonsal) Flow pattern with SW flow Common in wet summer of 2005

18. Theme #3: Improved prediction by integrating process understanding into models. Canadian Regional Climate Model Clouds (Leighton) Virga (Stewart) Evapotranspiration (Raddatz, Hanesiak, Strong) MESH (TO BE MIGRATED TO CLASS) Soil Moisture (Berg) CW: NO SOIL MOISTURE CW: SOIL MOISTURE Ponding (Pomeroy) (Pietroniro) Ground Water (Woodbury, Snelgrove, Hayashi,van der Kamp)

19. 4. COMPARE WITH OTHER DROUGHTS • Previous Canadian Prairie Droughts • Others in North America • Around the world 1961 Precipitation Anomaly 2002 Global Precipitation Anomaly

20. 4 0 -4 1560 1600 1640 1680 1720 1760 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Oldman River Flow, 1562-2004

21. SOME IMPACTS Ross Herrington Bob Clark Bart Oegema Bill Girling Aston Chipanshi

22. Lessons learned from these case studies: what policies and practices are promoting resilience and adaptation Lessons learned from these case studies: what policies and practices are impeding resilience and adaptation Lessons learned from these case studies: what policies and practices are exacerbating vulnerability Assessing Adaptive Capacity for dealing with Precipitation Variability what policies and practices are promoting resilience and adaptation high Adaptive Capacity what policies and practices are impeding resilience and adaptation low low high Climate Exposure Index (after Venema)

23. Data Support Framework for drought research

24. User feedback on DRI products is solicited through feedback on the internet and DEWS workshops

25. OTHER LESSONS: • Data and data products are often the most valuable legacy of • regional research projects but often the data legacy is not • effectively incorporated into the planning of projects. • Transitioning the results of the results of research into operations • would be facilitated if common standards were used in research • and in operations. (One of the benefits of GEO!) • Canada currently has a call for proposals for international collaboration • where half of the funding would go to collaborators in other countries • and half would stay with Canadian investigators. Currently a proposal • on drought is being developed with Dr. Menendez of the University of • Buenos Aires. I would be happy to discuss possibilities with anyone here • for collaboration.