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Working Group on Nowcasting Research A Brief Introduction

Working Group on Nowcasting Research A Brief Introduction. Paul Joe. Mandate of WGNR. Advise Promote Nowcsting Advance the Science Publish and Convene Capacity Build and Technology Transfer. Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element.

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Working Group on Nowcasting Research A Brief Introduction

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  1. Working Group on Nowcasting ResearchA Brief Introduction Paul Joe

  2. Mandate of WGNR • Advise • Promote Nowcsting • Advance the Science • Publish and Convene • Capacity Build and Technology Transfer

  3. Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element. Nowcasting is forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; this includes a detailed description of the present weather. In the foreseeable future it is most likely that it will be possible to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts for end-users of the 0-6h time period with sufficient time and space specificity to effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits. Conway, 1988

  4. Nowcasts leads to a “call to action” Met. Information VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution Nowcast (Anal) >warning SRF(NWP) >Outlook Cancel warning Local Government Action for disaster prevention Action for recovery Ready to take action Stand by Back to normal (recovery) Citizen Keep in mind evacuation preparation 1-2 days before 3-6 hours before 1 hour before Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs? disaster (Flood/Landslide) Precip. Intensity Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

  5. CSI of 0.2 is not good enough! Zawadzki

  6. Strategic Plan • Promotion and Facilitation of Nowcasting Science • Improving Predictive skill and characterizing uncertainty • Promoting physically based nowcast prediction through hi res modelling and data assimilation • Nowcasting Systems and Process Development • Information Exchange and Capacity Building • Enhancing Transfer of Nowcasting Research to Operations

  7. Implementation • Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of technology and science through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the development of nowcast test beds. • Organization of international nowcasting conferences and specialist symposia, training workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS • Inter comparison and systematic testing of these algorithms on common and representative databases (including consideration of extreme and high impact events) would provide valuable assessment and help define optimal paths for development. • Promote collaboration amongst National Meteorological Services (NMS’s) to develop nowcasting capabilities

  8. How? • Symposia • FDP, RDP, DC-FDP, Test Beds • Workshops • Training Workshops • Other Projects (e.g. RQQI,…) • Collaborations (promote and develop) • Advice

  9. RDP

  10. FDP’s

  11. DC-FDP

  12. Test Bed • Longer term demonstration project • JONAS activity! • Lead to operational implementation – forecast system definition! • Better statistics for verification • Better end-user interaction for social impacts

  13. WWRP/NWG History S2K Kick Off Meeting Reading WWRP Conceived Athens “no go” SNOWV10 KO B08 Kick Off (3) WSN09 WSN05 MAP V10 KO B08 SNOW-V10 Algorithms / Nowcast Teams Meet at Austin Radar Conference Olympic Focus Sydney 2000 • WG’s formed • Nowcasting • Verification • Social Impacts • Tropical…

  14. Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection! • U.S. ~1952 • Canada ~1980 • Australia ~1990 • China ~2003 • Romania ~2003 • Germany 2005 • Japan 2008

  15. Other Related WMO/WWRP Programs • Central Basic Systems/Public Weather Service (e.g., WENS, SWFDP, MWA) • Commission on Instruments Methods and Observations (e.g., RQQI) • Verification Working Group • Mesoscale Working Group • Social Economic Working Group

  16. Where Are We Going?Purpose of the meeting! • More FDP’s, RDP’s, Training Workshops • Symposia and advancing nowcasting workshops? • DC-FDP? • non-radar DP? • Advancing • Training Centre • Forecast Systems/Test Beds • Instruments for nowcasting

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