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January 31, 2013 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist World Bank, Nairobi

Emerging Issues in Development Policy Africa’s emergence and the implications for the aid architecture. January 31, 2013 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist World Bank, Nairobi. Main messages.

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January 31, 2013 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist World Bank, Nairobi

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  1. Emerging Issues in Development PolicyAfrica’s emergence and the implications for the aid architecture January 31, 2013 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist World Bank, Nairobi

  2. Main messages • Africa is starting to catch-up but yet to experience economic transformation. Over the last decade Africa experienced a recovery after two lost decades. • The y-factor explaining Africa’s emergence: Demography, Geography, Technology and Policy. • Africa’s emergence will have major implications for the future aid architecture. From now on, most of the World’s poor live in fragile states.

  3. Africa’s emergence

  4. Africa’s three distinct periods of economic performance

  5. Africa’s catch-up since 2000 Developing Sub-Saharan Africa World High-income

  6. Africa’s ride to Middle Income

  7. Most of the poor now live in fragile states

  8. The y-factorDemography – Geography – Technology – Policy

  9. Demography: Africa will experience a demographic dividend

  10. … while Europe and North America’s share in global population is declining

  11. Geography: Africa is urbanizing rapidly

  12. Geography; Example Kenya: Net population growth will be urban

  13. Technology: Today, Africa has more phones than adults

  14. Policy, especially macroeconomic management

  15. .. but many challenges remain, especially governance

  16. Africa’s economies are yet to transformExample: Kenya’s exports

  17. The need to deliver aid differently

  18. The Old Reality of Aid

  19. The New Reality of Aid

  20. Since 1992, aid has doubled, mainly due to the emergence of new players Total Development Assistance from OECD, 1992 Total Development Assistance from OECD, 2008

  21. The total number of projects has quadrupled while the average size declined sharply (ODA only)

  22. Aid engagements: Past Stable poor MIC Intensity of engagement Fragile HIC

  23. Aid engagements: 2025 Fragile MIC Intensity of engagement Stable poor HIC

  24. Thank youWolfgang Fenglerwfengler@worldbank.orgTwitter: @wolfgangfengler

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