Sarah Hitchner (UGA) Cassandra Johnson Gaither (USFS) John Schelhas (UFS)

1. Qualitative Assessment of Climate Change in Georgia: Comparing Ethnographic Research on Social Vulnerability with Social Indicator-based Approaches Sarah Hitchner (UGA) Cassandra Johnson Gaither (USFS) John Schelhas (UFS) Peter Brosius (UGA) 8 November 2011

2. Project description • Project objectives and goals • Methods and research activities • Project status • Current challenges

3. Project Description • Public perceptions, understandings, and interpretations of the concept of climate change in Georgia • Current research on the intersection of climate change indicators with measures of social vulnerability • County-level maps of areas susceptible to projected climate changes using climate (temperature and precipitation) data and census-based indicators of social vulnerability • Comparison of perceptions of climate change in urban and rural areas in Georgia • Comparative ethnographic analysis to determine the range and influence of various vulnerability and resilience indicators in different areas • Integration and comparison of qualitative and quantitative methodologies

4. Project Objectives and Goals • Objective 1: Qualitative Assessment of Climate Change in Georgia • Perceptions of climate change in socially vulnerable communities • Identification of aspects of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity not captured by aggregate-level indicators of vulnerability • Comparison of perceptions in urban and rural communities • Objective 2: Integrating Ethnographic Research on Social Vulnerability with Social Indicator-based Approaches • Using ethnographic methods to further refine indicator-based approaches

5. Mapping and Site Selection(Marshall Shepherd and Binita KC, UGA Department of Geography) • GIS methodology • Variables used to map social vulnerability • Race: African American and Hispanic • Age: below 5 and over 65 • Education: lack of bachelor degree • Land-based livelihood (agriculture, forestry, fishery, mining) • Household types (female-headed household, family with divorced and widowed women) • Poverty: below poverty line • Inmate population and population in group quarters

6. Identify counties with urban > 50% population= urban counties Identify counties with urban <= 50% population=rural counties • zscore of pcp for each urban county • Z 1950 =x 1950 -µ 1941-1950 • Sd 1941-1950 zscore of temp for each rural county Z 1950 =x 1950 -µ 1941-1950 Sd 1941-1950 zscore of pcp for each rural county Z 1950 =x 1950 -µ 1941-1950 Sd 1941-1950 • zscore of temp for each urban county • Z 1950 =x 1950 -µ 1941-1950 • Sd 1941-1950 convert to raster with SOVI (common variable) as attribute combine T and P =1/2 T+ P=E combine T and P =T+1/2 P= E Append to merge urban and rural counties each having certain degree of exposure Absolute value of exposure taken so that both extremes (negative and positive z score) increase vulnerability E= precipitation and temperature SOVI=Social Vulnerability Index n= no of principle components Final vulnerability map of Georgia Binita KC and Marshall Shepherd, UGA (2011)

7. Georgia County Map http://www.digital-topo-maps.com/county-map/georgia.shtml

8. Climate variability (Temperature & Precipitation) Binita KC and Marshall Shepherd, UGA (2011)

9. Social Vulnerability Index Binita KC and Marshall Shepherd, UGA (2011)

10. Combined Map: Social Vulnerability and Climate (Temp. & Precipitation) Binita KC and Marshall Shepherd, UGA (2011)

11. Urban Sites: Fulton and Hall Counties • Fulton County: • Center-city adjacent neighborhoods of English Avenue and Vine City in Atlanta • Predominantly African American • High crime rate • Hall County: • Hispanic community in Gainesville (more geographically concentrated than in metro or center-city Atlanta)

13. Rural Site: Jasper County , GA Binita KC and Marshall Shepherd, UGA (2011)

14. Urban and Rural Vulnerability Urban • High population in densely built environments (heat islands, runoff, storms) • Health: poor quality or inadequate food, poor water and air quality, disease vectors • Gaps in wealth distribution; political and economic marginalization • Poverty increases vulnerability to heat and cold • Poor more affected by water scarcity • Poor communities in hazardous areas • Coastal cities at risk from sea level rise (especially with loss of wetlands) Rural • Resource-dependent livelihoods heavily influenced by climate • Complex effects of climate change on crops, trees, livestock, and ecosystems • Rising or falling temperatures may require new crops • Different rainfall patterns (water stress, flooding, erosion, sedimentation) • Increased growth of weeds • Changes in nutritional content of crops and forage (affects people and livestock) • Decreased effectiveness of pesticides (e.g. pine beetles)

16. Forests and Trees in Urban and Rural Georgia Communities English Avenue/Vine City Jasper County Large economic base of agriculture and forestry activities Current state of forestry: pulp and paper, sawtimber, etc. (biofuels industries) People want more markets for forest products Adjacent to Oconee National Forest • Pleasant memories and perceptions of the neighborhoods • Link between trees, history, and identity • Canopy cover as heat mitigation • Trees trap pollution in air and water • People there want more trees, especially fruit trees

18. Research Methods and Activities • Background research on social vulnerability, climate change, and our selected field sites • Analysis of discourses and narratives on climate change in various media (scientific and lay) • Preliminary and ongoing informal site visits and participant observation in fieldsites • Identification of projects and/or research results that will benefit the communities • Oral histories of long-term community residents • Loosely structured interviews and focus groups in local communities • Content analysis of transcripts using a grounded theory approach • Work with community leaders to identify ways to reduce vulnerability and increase capacity to respond to climate change

19. Informal Site Visits and Participant Observation • Engage with key community leaders • English Avenue/Vine City: “Able” Mable Thomas • Jasper County: Lucy Ray, Extension Agent • Attend community events • Neighborhood clean-up day in English Avenue/Vine City • High altitude climate balloon launch and STEM training • Attend local church services and community festivals or public events

21. Interviews and Focus Groups Interview Questions • Ideas about community (history, social cohesiveness, social networks, challenges and opportunities. • Perceptions of their own vulnerability (individual, household, community) • Observations of recent weather events or changes • Ideas about climate change (understandings, feelings, perceived impacts, sources of information) • Different ways of talking about and responding to climate change Methodological Notes • We plan to ask open-ended, broad questions, and keep interview style flexible and responsive. • We plan to pre-test these questions in Athens, GA before beginning interviews in our fieldsites. • Interviews with Hispanic community members will be conducted in Spanish; others will be in English.

22. Presenting Climate Change Projections to Interviewees • Past and current climate variability and change • Projected county-level future climate changes • Difficulties in communicating the complexity of various climate models • Does presenting scientific information taint the results? • Can it be considered a way to “give back” to the community?

23. Ethnographic Challenges • How to conduct ethnographic fieldwork in places where we don’t reside? (Expanded notion of ethnographic fieldwork) • What constitutes a “community”? Who speaks for the community? • How to be inclusive, transparent, and relevant to the local community? • How to appropriately compensate participants and /or “give back” to communities”? • Acknowledging the potential baggage of the term “vulnerability” • Acknowledging the uncertainty of the climate models at a downscaled, county level • Determining relative importance of various indicators in determining social vulnerability in these field sites • Identifying mechanisms that result in resilience and adaptive capacity • Predicting future vulnerability and adaptive capacity in these communities

24. Thank you. Questions? Answers?