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Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics

Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics. Brian Smith Lab Program Manager, Wind & Water Power Technologies brian.smith@nrel.gov May 18, 2010 National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Visit to NWTC. National Wind Technology Center Overview. Turbine testing since 1977

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Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics

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  1. Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics Brian Smith Lab Program Manager, Wind & Water Power Technologies brian.smith@nrel.gov May 18, 2010 National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Visit to NWTC

  2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future National Wind Technology Center Overview • Turbine testing since 1977 • Leader in development of design and analysis codes • Pioneers in component testing • Unique test facilities • Blade Testing • Dynamometer • CART turbines • Modern utility-scale turbines • Approx. 130 staff on-site • Budget approx. $40M • Many CRADAs with industry • Leadership roles for international standards • Lead Lab for DOE Marine Hydrokinetic Technology Development Blade Test Facility NPS 1.5MW Direct Drive Generator

  3. Global Wind Energy Boom Continues – Up 31% • Global Facts • 37.5 GW added in 2009 • 158 GW total • China added 13 GW, double 2008 • Wind now ~1.7% of world electricity production • European offshore wind grew 54% • 2,056 MW total • 38 offshore wind farms • 828 wind turbines • 158 GW • Produces ~340 TWh of clean electricity/year • Saves ~240 million tons of CO2 /year Source: GWEC and EWEA websites

  4. U.S. Wind Industry Breaks Records – over 10 GW Cumulative Wind Capacity by State U.S. Annual and Cumulative Wind Power Installations • US Facts • 35.1 GW total, 1.8% of US power in 2009 • World leader in installed capacity • 39% capacity growth in 2009 • 14 states over 1 GW, 36 states utility-scale wind project • 39 manufacturing facilities new, announced or expanded, 85,000 jobs in all 50 states • 35.2 GW • Saves ~62 million tons of CO2 /year • Equivalent to ~10.5 million cars off the road • Conserve ~20 billion gallons of water/year Source: AWEA US Wind Industry Annual Market Report – Year Ending 2009

  5. 1 GW of New Wind Yields… Deployment of wind power yields substantial benefits in renewable electricity generation, carbon reduction, and jobs creation 1.8 M metric tons of carbon avoided annually 1.2 M tons of coal / 20.9 Bcf natural gas savedannually 3.2 M MWh of electricity generated annually 1000 construction jobs, 200 long-term operations & supply chain jobs $3 M in land-lease payments, $7.2 M in property taxes annually 1.3 B gallons of water saved annually Source: NREL Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model.

  6. 20% Wind Report Guides NREL Wind Strategy 20% Wind Scenario Actual

  7. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Critical Elements for 20% Scenario • Improved Performance • 10% reduction in capital cost • 15% increase in capacity factor • Address Wind Farm underperformance • Mitigate Risk • Reduce O&M costs by 35% • Foster the confidence to support continued 20% per year growth in installation rates from now until 2018 • Enhanced Transmission System (AEP) • $60 billion cost estimate over 20 yrs • 19,000 mi of line • Supports 200-400 GW addition • Policy, Communication & Outreach • Infrastructure Development

  8. New NREL - AWS Truepower map estimates land-based wind resource potential • Mapped new wind resource estimates for 80-m & 100-m hub-heights • Provided new estimates of Wind Land and Wind Energy Potential by State in Areas >= 30% • National and State-Level Maps Available • http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp • http://www.awstruewind.com/windpotential.cfm NREL validation of 200-m resolution wind resource estimates from AWS Truepower Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model

  9. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Technology Evolution

  10. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Technology Development Today • 2.5 MW - typical commercial turbine Installation • 5.0 MW prototypes being installed for testing in Europe • Many manufacturers have a 10 MW machine in design • Large turbine development programs targeting offshore markets • Hardware development outpacing test & validation capability Boeing 747-400

  11. Increasing Installed Costs (Land-based) Project costs appear to have bottomed out in 2001-2004, and have risen by $630/kW through 2008 ($825/kW through 2009) Source: Wiser / LBNL

  12. Increasing Wind Power Prices (Land-based) Wind power prices bottomed out with projects built in 2002-03 Sample built in 2008 is ~$15-20/MWh higher on average Source: Wiser / LBNL

  13. Capacity Factor Improvements Capacity Factor Increases Within Fixed Wind Resource Regimes at 50m Source: Wiser / LBNL

  14. Multi-MW Turbines installed at NWT DOE 1.5 MW • DOE 1.5 MW GE Turbine • Model: GE 1.5SLE • Tower Height: 80 m • Rotor Diameter: 77 m • DOE owned; to be used for research and education • Turbine Completion Certificate: 28 Sep 09 • Continuous Operation Permission: 21 Dec 09 • Siemens 2.3 MW Turbine • Model: SWT-2.3-101 • Tower Height: 80 m • Rotor Diameter: 101 m • Siemens owned and operated • Multi-year R&D CRADA; aerodynamics and rotor performance • Turbine Commissioning and Ceremony Completed in Oct 09 • RES Americas: • Partnered on turbine foundations, installation & erection of 1.5 MW turbine, and R&D on turbine foundation loads measurement & optimization Siemens 2.3 MW

  15. Siemens Wind Turbine Installation Time Lapse

  16. Dynamometer Testing • Dynamometer Upgrade • Power up to 5 MW • Shaft Loads • Complete 2012

  17. Advanced Drivetrain R&D Today NPS Tomorrow GEC

  18. Blade Testing Facilities • NREL has developed and patented advanced blade testing • NREL supports R&D blade testing for DOE and industry • Supporting development of new blade test facilities worldwide • New Large Blade Test Facility: • Boston, MA with Massachusetts Technology Collaborative • Static and Fatigue tests of blades up to 90 m • NREL staff to operate facility

  19. Small Wind Independent Testing Tests Completed • Mariah Windspire: Testing terminated due to turbine problems. Power performance, duration, safety and function reports completed. • ARE 442: Testing completed December 2009. Power performance, duration, safety and function, and acoustic noise tests completed. Testing In Progress • Gaia 11-kW – Field testing completed in March 2010, post duration test inspection underway • Entegrity EW50 – Unusually low wind speeds at site prevented completion of duration testing (50% complete) • Ventera VT10 – Turbine installation in January 2010; testing to begin in April Independent Testing Project increases consumer confidence through standards and certification Progress and results are publicly available on the NREL website including test reports: http://www.nrel.gov/wind/smallwind/independent_testing.html

  20. Marine Renewable Energy Sources Offshore Wind in Shallow Water Offshore Wind Energy in Deepwater Tidal Currents River Currents Wave Energy

  21. Why Marine Renewables? 28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity in U.S. Many Coastal Load Centers Cannot Be Served by Land-based Renewable Resources Renewable Energy Goals Cannot be Achieved Without Offshore Contributions US Population Concentration U.S. Wind Resource Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind

  22. Rationale for Offshore Wind • Constrained land use • Better wind resources • Reduced turbulence – steadier wind • Higher wind = better energy production • Higher capacity factors – load matching • Minimize visual impacts with greater distances. • Proximity to load centers • Lower transmission constraints • Serve high cost regions • Exploits indigenous energy • Avoids size limits • Shipping – Land-based roadway limits • Erection – crane limits • Larger machines are more economical.

  23. Shallow water 0-30m depth 2 – 5 MW upwind rotor configurations 70+ meter tower height on monopoles and gravity bases Mature submarine power cable Existing oil and gas experience is essential Reliability problems and turbine shortages discouraged early development. Costs are not established in US Offshore Wind Turbine Technology National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

  24. Offshore Wind Project Costs Over Time Installed Cost for Operating European Project* Announced Cost for Proposed U.S. Project* Announced Cost for Proposed European Project* Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

  25. Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations Transitional Depth Deepwater Floating Shallow Water Land-based Commercially Proven Technology Demonstration Phase 0m-30m 430-GW 30m-60m 541-GW Estimated US Resource 60m-900m 1533-GW No exclusions assumed for resource estimates National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

  26. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future World’s First Floating Wind Turbine Siemens SWT-2.3 MW Hywind • R&D Project developed by StatoilHydro, and Siemens • 12 km southeast of Karmøy in Norway • SWT - 2.3 MW architecture • 82 meter diameter • 65 meter tower • Spar buoy technology • 100 meter draft • 202 meter water depth • Reference: w1.siemens.com Image Credit: www.greenlaunches.com

  27. Two Basic Forms of Marine Hydrokinetic Energy CURRENTS • Activating force flows in same direction for at least a few hours • Tidal ranges are larger in northern latitudes • Tidal, river, and ocean variants • Conversion technology is some sort of submerged turbine WAVES • Activating force reverses direction every 5 to 20 seconds • Waves are larger in the northern latitudes and west coasts. • Conversion technology can be floating or submerged, with a wide variety of devices

  28. Marine Current Turbines (axial flow, open rotor) GCK (cross flow, Gorlov helical rotor) Open Hydro (axial flow, open rotor, rim-drive) Lunar Energy (axial flow, shrouded single-rotor) SeaPower (cross flow, Savonius rotor) SMD Hydrovision (axial flow, open rotor) UEK (axial flow, shrouded twin-rotor) Verdant Power (axial flow, open rotor) Ocean Renewable Power Company (cross flow) Tidal Current Turbine Examples

  29. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

  30. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

  31. Brian Smith Lab Program Manager Wind & Water Power Technologies National Wind Technology Center Contact Information: Phone: 303-384-6911 Email: brian.smith@nrel.gov Questions? NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

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