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The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids

The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids. Peter Lilienthal 2011 International Wind-Diesel Workshop Girdwood, Alaska March 10, 2011. The Future of Power. Clean , distributed power with hybrid renewables and smart micro-grids. Clean Power Evolution. Large utilities Security obstacles

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The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids

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  1. The Economics of Wind-Diesel Microgrids Peter Lilienthal 2011 International Wind-Diesel Workshop Girdwood, Alaska March 10, 2011 www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  2. The Future of Power Clean, distributed power with hybrid renewables and smart micro-grids 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  3. Clean Power Evolution • Large utilities • Security obstacles • Regulatory obstacles • Smaller systems • Liquid fuels from oil • High renewable penetrations Micro-grids with distributed controls for reliability and efficiency 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  4. Too Many Choices Solar Fuel Cells Wind Micro-turbines Hydro Geothermal Micro-grids Biomass Demand Response New Storage Techs. Electric Vehicles Load Management Smart grids 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  5. What is best? • Depends on the application • Resources • Especially variable and non-dispatchable renewables • Loads • Equipment prices • Equipment performance • A confused mind says “No!” • Requires a simple tool • Smaller projects cannot afford complex tools • Modeling to grow the industry 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  6. Introducing HOMER Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables 1993: Developed at NREL for Village Power 1998: Released to public 2009: Spun off to HOMER Energy 2010: First commercial version 2011: Web-based version

  7. System Architectures

  8. Decision Support Framework Sensitivity Analysis Optimization Simulation Hourly Energy Balance

  9. It Comes Down to Economics • Saving oil is a more reliable business model than chasing subsidies 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  10. Sensitivity Which system is best under what conditions?

  11. PenetrationContribution Analysis from HOMER No Wind High Low Medium 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  12. Foundation Costs Total installed turbine cost $300,000  $600,000  $900,000  2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  13. Wind-Diesel Cogeneration What is the minimum fuel price for wind-diesel to be cost-effective? Does it depend on the size of the thermal load? Trade-off between waste heat from genset and dump load

  14. Additional Insights • The challenge of renewables is not what to do when the wind doesn’t blow. It is what to do when the wind blows too strongly • A little bit of storage goes a long way • The highest value of storage is not load shifting • We could have saved billions of $s killing bad ideas quickly with more HOMER analysis 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  15. Results

  16. Business Model Data on user behavior Custom Training Leads Ads

  17. Customer Segments New users by month No connected grid Islands Remote applications Inadequate grid Developing nations Ultra-reliable applications Micro-grids Smart grid High renewable penetration Storage Electric vehicles 54,000 users 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  18. User Base Profile Status of global microgrid market Redesigning user surveys 193 countries 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  19. Version 3 www.homerenergy.com 2334 Broadway, Suite B, Boulder, Co. 80302

  20. Dr. Peter LilienthalCEOpeter@homerenergy.com(720) 565-4046HOMEREnergy.com 2334 Broadway, Ste. B, Boulder, Co. 80302

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