1 / 15

T. Kuragano (GOVST) M. Kamachi ( GOVPatron ) Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui (COSS-TT),

Japan Report National Forecasting System (MOVEMRI.COM) and Japan Working Team - Progress in 2012-2014 -. T. Kuragano (GOVST) M. Kamachi ( GOVPatron ) Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui (COSS-TT), S. Ishizaki (ET-OOFS), Y. Takaya, T. Toyoda, K. Sakamoto JMA/MRI. Recent Progress (1/2).

priscilla-shaw
Download Presentation

T. Kuragano (GOVST) M. Kamachi ( GOVPatron ) Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui (COSS-TT),

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Japan ReportNational Forecasting System (MOVEMRI.COM)and Japan Working Team- Progress in 2012-2014 - T. Kuragano (GOVST) M. Kamachi (GOVPatron) Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui(COSS-TT), S. Ishizaki (ET-OOFS), Y. Takaya, T. Toyoda, K. Sakamoto JMA/MRI

  2. Recent Progress (1/2) • MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 and -SETO systems will be in operation early 2015. • OSE for Argo floats and TAO/TRITON array was done (Fujii et al., 2014). • Impact of Aquarius SSS data was examined (Toyoda et al., in revision). • Seawater mass variation was examined to detect steric component from altimeter data (Kuragano et al., 2014).

  3. Recent Progress(2/2) • Analysis and predicted variables have been available since August 2014 for research and commercial users through the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center. • Application studies are in progress in collaboration with related organizations. • Fishery, Debris, and Radiation contamination • 18th Japan data assimilation summer school was held in August 2014 as GOV Outreach activity.

  4. MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 for Seasonal/ENSO Forecast • MRI.COM-G2 is an ocean part of the coupled model, JMA/MRI-CGCM2, for the next operational seasonal/ENSO forecast system in JMA • Ocean Reanalysis was done by the assimilation system MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 • System performance was evaluated from the hindcast experiments

  5. Main Upgrades of System- MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 - • MRI.COM v3.2 • Tripolor grid and Sea Ice model - analysis and prediction in arctic area and sea ice • Higher latitudinal resolution- 0.3 - 1.0 degree → 0.3 - 0.5degree • Atmospheric forcing • - JRA25/JCDAS -> JRA55 • MOVE major revisions • Change statistical vertical EOF modes • 57 regionsfrom 40 ones in previous version • Monthly EOF modes from annual EOF mode • Bias correction scheme • FGAT（First-Guess at Adequate Time) • Ocean mass correction for altimeter data • T/S assimilation up to 1750 m from up to 1500 m Lines are drawn for every 10 grids

  6. NINO3.4 SST prediction JMA/MRI-CGCM2 JMA/MRI-CGCM1 (2009experiment) JMA/MRI-CGCM1 (2014experiment extended for LT 7-12 months) NINO3.4 RMSE (Init: Feb) NINO3.4 ACC (Init: Feb) [K] NINO3 SST RMSE (Init: Nov) NINO3 SST ACC (Init: Nov) [K] February and November initialized predictionsshow remarkable improvement: ACC keeps high beyond the Spring predictability barrier

  7. MOVE/MRI.COM-SETOfor coastal high tide prediction Target: To predict costal high tide and rapid current caused by open ocean variation • MOVE-WNP 4DVAR • 0.1x0.1 deg., 54 layers • 10-day assimilation window • To predict short-term open-ocean variation • SETO Coastal Model • 2km x 2km 54 layers • increment from WNP 4DVAR • To represent detailed impact on the coastal area

  8. Study for the unusual high tide in 2011 • Assimilation experiment: • 2km-coastal assimilative model • 1 Aug – 31 Oct 2011 SSH on 29SEP2011 Kanto • The Kuroshio took a nearshore path at the eastern flank of the Izu Ridge Izu Ridge Itsukushima Shrine Unusual high tide Obs Model Typhoon Typhoon AB ST MI

  9. OSE Configuration OSE for ARGO and TAO/TRITON • 9 simulation experiments are performed in the period of 2000-2012 using MOVE-G. • Profiles of Argo where the last digit of the WMO number is 8 or 9 are withheld in all simulations except for Reg-Exp, and used for the reference data. Observed Data Assimilated in Each OSEs Last digit of WMO number Reference Data

  10. Increase of ACC against OSE-XBO (0-300m average) • The accuracy of TS fields is generally increased with the increase in the number of assimilated Argo profiles. • The complementary impact of TRITON on T is larger than that of Argo floats in the western tropical Pacific (OSE-XAF has higher T accuracy than OSE-XTT). • The increase of ACCs for both TS with the increase of the number of Argo assimilated is closer to linear in NINO3 (Enhanced deployment of Argo floats is desirable).

  11. SSS impact on MOVE/MRI.COM • Impact of Aquarius SSS data on MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 are examined for future operational use of SSS • Aquarius official release level 3 SSS standard mapped image daily data v2.0 • CTL Exp.: assimilation run for T/S profile and SLA data • ASA Exp.: SSS data are additionally assimilated

  12. Impacts in the North Pacific • Increase of subsurface salinity and temperature especially in winter • Strengthen of mixing at surface layer, which is consistent with in-situ data based analysis S 100 m MLD CTL T 100 m MLD ASA In-situ based Analysis PV 100 m

  13. Ocean mass correction for SLA • SL variation caused by ocean mass variation is examined to steric height component from altimetric SLA. • Local mass variation as a response to seasonal water flux, wind stress and surface pressure variation is examined using a barotropic global ocean model. • The results are well consistent with seasonal mean variation of altimeteric SLA minus steric height. • The results are adopted for the correction of SLA data in MOVE/MRI.COM-G2. AltimetricSL Kuragano & Kamachi (2000) mass Steric SL Ishii and Kimoto (2009) Amplitude of SL variation by mass Phase of SL variation by mass

  14. Ocean mass correction for SLA Cost function: Model steric height Seasonal mass-related SSH Altimetric SLA Assimilationincluding mass correction terms Trend of global mean mass-related SSH:2mm/yr Results of global mean SSH variation by applying mass correction

  15. 18th Data Assimilation Summer School19 - 22 Aug. 2014, in Mutsu, Aomori Prefecture As an Outreach of GOV It continues from 1997 under the support of Japan Marine Science Foundation & JAMSTEC. 3 days course of fundamental lectures, practices and applications Lectures BBQ Party Participants

More Related