TT-SMRCP GOVST, ESA-HQ, Paris 2011 Report

1. TT-SMRCP GOVST, ESA-HQ, Paris 2011 Report

2. Agenda • Apologies • Review the objectives and directions • Status document • Progress presentations: • Hal Ritchie - CONCEPTS • Magdalena Balmaseda - ECMWF coupled prediction • James Cummings - COAMPS (in absentia) • Matt Martin - UKMet • Gary Brassington – CLAM • Hendrik – NOAA/NCEP • Others … • Joint GOV/WGNE workshop - discussion

3. Apologies • Laurent Bertino (NERSC) • The PRACTICE project where we are coupling the EnKF with the Norwegian Earth System Model in view of seasonal to decadal climate predictions. (The project has started last year in collaboration with the University of Bergen but has no web page so far)  • The WIFAR project where we are coupling a sea ice model and a wave model for predictions of the Marginal Ice Zone. http://msc.nersc.no/?q=wifar

4. Apologies • Jim Cummings (NRL) • NRL is actively involved in coupled modeling and we are getting involved in coupled data assimilation.  The COAMPS air-ocean system is transitioning to OPS in December.  I've included a wiring diagram of the coupling and a slide showing the GUI interface for setting up a coupled model domain. • There are many of us here in Monterey who are interested in attending the workshop you're planning for the Washington DC area in 2012

5. TT-SMRCP review • TT-SMRCP-workplan-2010-v2.doc • Scope • Short- to medium-range prediction of the ocean, marine boundary layer, surface waves and sea-ice • Global and regional scale • Pursuing coupled prediction systems for improving and extending ocean/wave/sea-ice state estimation and forecast skill • Specific coupling focii: ocean-wave-atmosphere and ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere

6. TT-SMRCP review • Objectives • Coordinate and promote the scientific and technical development of coupled prediction for extending the performance of ocean, marine and sea-ice forecasts • Establish a scientific and technical community with expertise in ocean, marine and sea-ice prediction • Quantify and document the impact of coupling for ocean and marine prediction • Define the observational requirements for coupled research and prediction systems

7. Task team structure Leadership group - points of contact Asia-Oceania Gary Brassington (g.brassington@bom.gov.au) Europe Matthew Martin (matthew.martin@metoffice.gov.uk) North America HendrikTolman (Hendrik.Tolman@noaa.gov) Membership Confirmed Paul Sandery, Bureau of Meteorology James Cummings, Naval Research Lab. Harold Ritchie, Environment Canada Nicolas Ferry, Mercator Océan Yuhei Takaya, JMA Magdalena Balmaseda, ECMWF Interest Laurent Bertino, Nansen Research Center Michele Rienecker, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island Hans Bonekamp, EUMetSAT

9. TT-SMRCP review • Workplan • Establish links to key groups pursuing common objectives for other components of the coupled systems e.g., WGNE, Seasonal/Intra-seasonal, TC/Hurricane/Typhoon, sea-ice, waves • Collate and pursue evidence for the impact of coupled prediction to ocean and marine prediction and collaborate with other groups to determine impacts to all components • Develop jointly a whitepaper and scope, plan and objectives for a workshop to promote collaboration and coordination of coupled prediction systems for short to medium range prediction • Identify and promote opportunities for international projects to advance coupled prediction research and development • Identify obstacles/limits and pursue new initiatives to address the same • 2010 Establish working group to develop the joint workshop • 2010 Request international access to the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) (http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/itop/) • 2011 Joint GODAE-WGNE workshop on short-medium range coupled prediction • 2011 International coupled research and development experiment - a multi-year coupled prediction experiment that addresses the recommendations of the workshop • 2012-2015 Respond to the recommendations of the workshop

10. National efforts – summary (2010) • UK MetOffice • Forming working groups • Global coupled prediction • NRL • COAMPS => ITOP and HFIB • Coupled DA effort Craig Bishop/Jim Cummings • Bureau of Meteorology • CLAM, CLAM-TC • ECMWF • Coupled atmosphere-wave • Mercator • Proposal for coupled system for TC’s in Indian Ocean • JMA • Developments of coupled Typhoon prediction • Research in general weather coupling • Canada • Coupled ocean-sea-ice-weather

11. National presentation • Hal Ritchie – CONCEPTS • Magdalena Balmaseda - ECMWF coupled prediction • James Cummings - COAMPS (in absentia) • Matt Martin – UKMet • Gary Brassington – CLAM

12. National efforts – summary (2011) UK MetOffice NRL Bureau of Meteorology ECMWF Mercator JMA Canada

13. Sandery P A, OKane T J, Brassington G B, Freeman J, 2011. Dynamical Uncertainty in Coupled Tropical Cyclone Model Simulations, in preparation Sandery, P. A., G. B. Brassington and J. Freeman, 2010: Adaptive nonlinear dynamical initialization, J Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2010JC006260 Sandery, P., G. B. Brassington, A. Craig and T. Pugh, 2010: Impacts of ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone intensity change and ocean prediction in the Australian region, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 2074–2091. doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3101.1

20. GODAE-WGNE workshop – summary 2010 • WGNE in general support this activity • Christian Jacob – elevated this as an action item in WGNE • Struggling to get a WGNE champion • Gary Dietachmeyer – informal backup (international leader desirable) • WGNE to meet in November (expect progress by then) • Agenda • Forming a joint working group • Why, Who, When, How, What • Passive - collecting/synergy of national activities • Active - develop a collaborative science plan • Patrons • Consider funding to support GODAE participation and hosting of first workshop • Guidance on development of workplans • Opportunities for integrated observing campaigns

21. GOV-WGNE workshop – update • WGNE meeting 2010 – Dr Bill Lapenta (nominated to support the initiative) • Visit to NOAA-NCEP, Dr Glenn White, June 2011 • Development of revised proposal document • Proposal_coupled_workshopjul11.doc • WGNE meeting 2011 - Dr Bill Lapenta, presentation • PropjtWGNE-GOVworkshop102011.ppt • Funding proposal – GOV patrons • Key questions • Chair/Secretary candidate list ? • Chair/Secretary role / community whitepapers • Funding proposal and options • How best to use the time at the workshop ?

22. GOV-WGNE workshop – objectives • Conduct a workshop to invite members of the WGNE and GODAE OceanView community with interests in developing coupled high resolution earth systems for short- to medium- range prediction • Present the latest evidence of the impact of coupled modelling on the earth system analysis and forecasts • Present the latest progress in the development and identify gaps in knowledge and leading scientific questions to be addressed for: • coupled earth system observations • coupled earth system physical parameterisation • coupled earth system dynamical modelling (and predictability) • coupled earth system data assimilation • Discuss the requirements and opportunities for collaboration between each area • Discuss the formation of a joint group (Why/How/Who/When/Where) • Report on progress, gaps and challenges in the field and specific actions/recommendations for further progress

23. GOV-WGNE workshop – other recommendations • The scope of the workshop targets the short- to medium-range prediction as an identified gap that exists in the research and development of coupled earth systems. The nature of these problems place a greater emphasis on Initial Value Problems and rapid responses to coupling. Members of the seasonal and climate community would be encouraged to participate and contribute their experiences in coupled prediction. The scope will also be inclusive of all marine related interfacial components of the earth system; air-wave-sea; air-ice-wave-sea; air-land-surface with an emphasis in the coastal zone • A regular air-sea interaction meeting is held at ECMWF. It is recommended that this meeting be coordinated with this meeting both in terms of complementary content and realistic schedules. • For each topic of the workshop we would seek a chair and a secretary to lead and document the discussion from each topic. Each topic would focus on reporting the current status of research and capability, identify gaps in knowledge and capability and make recommendations for priorities and actions for making progress. It is recommended that funding travel support be offered as reward for their contribution to the workshop. • The workshop would also encourage participation from early career researchers to attract interest for this field. Opportunities would be provided to present posters and engage with the participants and the workshop discussion. It is recommended that funding support for accommodation/stipend would be sort to ensure this was not a deterrent to participation.

24. Proposal for a Joint WGNE-GOV Workshop Dr. Glenn White, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, US Dept of Commerce Dr. Bill Lapenta, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, US Dept of Commerce, WGNE representative Dr. Gary Brassington, CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, GOV representative, JCOMM ET-OOFS chair

25. Working Title: • Status, Needs and Challenges in Short- to Medium-Range Coupled Prediction of the Earth System • Proposed venue: Washington, DC • Proposed date: Feb 2013 (4 days) • 50 participants • Related workshops: • Workshop on Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction at ECMWF 10-12 Nov. 2008 • Ocean Atmosphere Workshop, UK Met Office 1-2 Dec. 2009 • Meeting in North America would be more accessible to North American community • Recent workshop at University of Maryland Sept. 27-29, 2011: • Ocean Integration in Earth System Prediction Capability Data Assimilation • Over 100 participants

26. Workshop Motivation • Ocean prediction substantially improved by coupling ocean model to atmospheric model • Could improve extreme events, atmospheric boundary layer, coastal weather, moisture fluxes from ocean • Improve retrieval of satellite data by more accurately representing ocean surface • Coupled models already used in longer range forecasts; using coupled models in shorter range forecasts should improve use in seasonal forecasts • Availability of GOOS and GODAE high-resolution estimates of ocean states • Coupled systems under development or in use at operational centers • --US Navy COAMPS • --NOAA coupled hurricane system, coupled data assimilation • --CMC coupled regional model • --ECMWF coupled atmosphere-wave • --Meteorological Office coupled coastal modelling • --Bureau of Meteorology CLAM • Unique joint forum for NWP and ocean forecasting communities • Coupling ocean and atmospheric models will necessitate substantial work to improve models, leading to substantial improvement

27. Workshop Objectives • Conduct a workshop to invite members of the WGNE and GODAE OceanView community with interests in developing coupled high resolution earth systems for short- to medium- range prediction • Present the latest evidence of the impact of coupled modelling on the earth system analysis and forecasts • Present the latest progress in the development and identify gaps in knowledge and leading scientific questions to be addressed for coupled earth system: • observations • physical parameterisation • dynamical modelling • data assimilation • Discuss the requirements and opportunities for collaboration between each area • Discuss the formation of a joint group (Why/How/Who/When/Where) • Report on progress, gaps and challenges in the field and specific actions/recommendations for further progress

28. Workshop Organization • Target gap in earth systems development for short- to medium-range prediction • Emphasize Initial Value Problem, rapid response to coupling • Seasonal, climate community contribute experience in coupled modeling • Include all marine related interfacial components • --air-wave-sea • --air-ice-wave-sea • --air-land-wave-sea (coastal zone) • Coordinate content, schedule with ECMWF air-sea interaction meeting • Chair, secretary for each workshop topic to report status, identify gaps, recommend • priorities, actions. Travel support for chairs, secretaries • Encourage early career researchers • --poster sessions • --funding support

29. Do we want a collaborative partnership between GOV and WGNE To target coupled model development? Should this be under a WCRP/WMO project?

30. GOV-WGNE workshop – chair/secretary role • The sheer size and complexity of the problem makes it very difficult to reach concrete conclusions at the end of a short workshop so we need a clever strategy to make progress. • Chair/Secretary requested to form a team to develop a community white paper on each of the sub areas that can be distributed and read prior to the meeting. • At the workshop an executive summary presented at the beginning and put the focus on: • identify gaps in knowledge and leading scientific questions to be addressed • Discuss the requirements and opportunities for collaboration between each area • Discuss the formation of a joint group (Why/How/Who/When/Where) • Report on progress, gaps and challenges in the field and specific actions/recommendations for further progress • We would aim to publish these papers as part of the report.

31. GOV-WGNE workshop – chair/secretary candidates

32. GOV-WGNE workshop – support proposal • Support for the chairs and secretaries to serve as both a reward and incentive • Travel/accom/per diem funding to attend the workshop ~$5K/role • Return airfare ~$3K • Accommodation ~$1K (7 days - 4day workshop, 1 day prep, 1 report writing) • Per diem ~$1K • Transfers ~ $0.2K • Request for GOV support: • Endorse the proposal • Webhosting • Communications support • Organising support • Request for funds from GOV patrons: • 2 Chair and 2 Secretary role ~$20K • 4 junior scientist scholarships? (GOV) ~ $10K ($2.5K/student)

33. Key questions • Chair/Secretary candidate list ? • Chair/Secretary role / community whitepapers • Funding proposal and options • How best to use the time at the workshop ?

34. GOV-WGNE workshop – other recommendations ? • Sustaining the effort, potential recommendations: • Convene special sessions at conferences attended by WGNE/GOV communities alternately and in different regions: • Funding invited speakers • Student travel funds • Encourage regional sessions