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Get the latest update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System. Explore rainfall patterns, climatology, and forecast models for accurate predictions. Visit the Climate Prediction Center for more information.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 17, 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated large parts of central and southern peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly coastal north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were mixed.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts received were quite mixed, and particularly deficient over India, and southern China bordering Burma and north eastward. However, southeastern China received above normal rainfall, as well as large parts of Indonesia.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, over almost the whole region, the rainfall amounts received were much below normal. Since the first of June, till date, monsoon rainfall over India is about 43% below normal according to the India Met. Dept (IMD), and this year, the pre-monsoon rain over India is among the worst in its history.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated large parts of central and southern peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly coastal north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were mixed. For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts received were quite mixed, and particularly deficient over India, and southern China bordering Burma and north eastward. However, southeastern China received above normal rainfall, as well as large parts of Indonesia. In this past week, over almost the whole region, the rainfall amounts received were much below normal. Since the first of June, till date, monsoon rainfall over India is about 43% below normal according to the India Met. Dept (IMD), and this year, the pre-monsoon rain over India is among the worst in its history. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal rainfall for large parts of India, which is already experiencing near-record dry conditions. Below normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of eastern coastal China.
