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A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida

Explore the history, impact, and societal changes related to drought in Alabama, Georgia, and Panhandle Florida. Learn about climate trends, population growth, urban sprawl, and agricultural shifts affecting the region's vulnerability to drought events.

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A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida

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  1. A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences The University of Georgia stooks@engr.uga.edu 706-583-0156

  2. Drought in the Southeast

  3. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system

  4. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future

  5. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity

  6. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity • At least from a climatic view

  7. Drought in the Southeast • Is a normal component of the climate system • Has occurred in the past and will in the future • No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensity • Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerability

  8. Societal Changes in the Southeast

  9. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II

  10. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980

  11. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000

  12. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million

  13. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million • 2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million

  14. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • 1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million • 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million • 2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million • 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million

  15. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • Growth has be unevenly distributed

  16. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Accelerated growth since 1980 • Growth has be unevenly distributed • Along the coast • Northern Piedmont – top of the water shed

  17. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes

  18. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns

  19. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed flow patterns • Conversion of row crop fields to forest (started in 1920s)

  20. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes

  21. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees

  22. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees • Increase in irrigation

  23. Societal Changes in the Southeast • Rapid population growth starting after World War II • Landscape changes • Agricultural Changes • Shift in amount in land in row crops and trees • Increase in irrigation • Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” industry

  24. Climate Trends Across the Southeast

  25. Climate Trends Across the Southeast • Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitation • Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average temperatures

  26. The Drivers Location, Location, Location El Niño and La Niña

  27. Coupled Air-Sea Interactions The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability. “The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

  28. Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle • Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean • Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

  29. Winter Jet Stream Patterns During El Niño and La Niña El Niño La Niña

  30. El Niño Effects on Precipitation

  31. La Niña Effects on Precipitation

  32. Alabama Droughts

  33. Georgia Droughts

  34. Annual North Central Georgia

  35. Annual West Central Georgia

  36. Annual Alabama Piedmont Plateau

  37. Annual Southwest Georgia

  38. Annual Coastal Plain Alabama

  39. Annual Northwest Florida

  40. The Seasonal Distribution is IMPORTANT

  41. Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

  42. Response of Hydrologic SystemsApalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

  43. ENSO and Flow RatesApalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

  44. Rainfall By Seasons

  45. Winter North Central Georgia

  46. Spring North Central Georgia

  47. Summer North Central Georgia

  48. Fall North Central Georgia

  49. Winter West Central Georgia

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