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Towards a Framework for CAES Planning and Performance Management at Unisa: The Role of BI & IR Presented to CAES Co

Towards a Framework for CAES Planning and Performance Management at Unisa: The Role of BI & IR Presented to CAES College Board 9 April 2009. Professor George Subotzky Executive Director: Information and Strategic Analysis. Overview of presentation. Background

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Towards a Framework for CAES Planning and Performance Management at Unisa: The Role of BI & IR Presented to CAES Co

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  1. Towards a Framework for CAES Planning and Performance Management at Unisa: The Role of BI & IR Presented to CAES College Board 9 April 2009 Professor George Subotzky Executive Director: Information and Strategic Analysis

  2. Overview of presentation • Background • Context and purpose of engagement • Integrated Strategic Planning Framework • DISA role and mandate within this • What is BI? Key concepts: • IM MI & BI • OPM • Outputs, outcomes and performance measures/indicators • The Information Hierarchy: The BI Pyramid • Analytic Maturity Curve • Technological Maturity Curve • Elements of the BI Framework • Key college strategic planning issues • Enrolment planning • Success & throughput model • Example of OP as M & E tool • Examples of performance dashboards • CAES profile • Engagement

  3. Acknowledgements • BI: Suzette van Zyl • Conceptual Genesis of BI Unisa • Research/PhD • Project leader • George Subotzky • Eager novice, quick learner • Prof Baijnath: Convinced supportive champion • Gartner: mixed value report • Business Intelligence 2008 Conference • Profile: Herbert Zemann and Herman Visser

  4. Strategic Management Framework & Planning Process and the role of BI & IR

  5. Types & sources of data & information: Different views

  6. Counting Students Provisional Registration Non-formal • Provisional headcounts and coursecounts of registrations/enrolments from opening of registration in December onwards • Previous year’s figures are updated as a result of subsequent cancellations & reinstatements Formal Registered Temporary Cancellations Provisional HC Enrolments(“Registered”) HEMIS Provisional HC Enr Cancelled Official HEMIS submissions of headcounts & FTEs to DoE based on census days: 1st Submission (31 Oct): Preliminary 2nd Submission (30 Apr): Preliminary 3rd Submission (31 July): Final Audited HEMIS Total HC Non-Active DoE Subsidy HEMIS Active HC

  7. Success & Throughput Success – Course Level • Exam Success Rate (Passed/Wrote) • Course Success Rate (Passed/Nett Enrolments) • 2010 Ministerial Target: 56% Currently: 54,6% • Prognosis: Good • Nett & Gross Attrition/Survival Rates (Cancellations, absentees & failures – full model analysis underway) Throughput – QualificationLevel • Proxy Measure (Graduated/Enrolments) • 2010 Ministerial Target: 8,37%Currently: 6% • Prognosis: Bad • Cohort Method (Appropriate benchmarks?) • - Completion Rate & Time to completion

  8. Sources of Information & Analysis • Institutional Information & Analysis Portal • Reports/tables • Profiles/overviews/pocket stats • Pivot tables • Downloadable analyses, reports, briefings • Information & Analysis Outputs • Institutional Research/analyses/briefings • Ad hoc requests • Statutory reports • Power User Groups

  9. Key strategic planning issues

  10. Strategic Reference Points Strategy: • Vision & Mission: clear - postmerger • Social Mandate: requires clarification • Business Model (ODL): requires clarification IOP: • 3 Strategically-aligned Operational Themes: • Institutional Identity: • ODL • Africanness • Comprehensiveness • Teaching/Research/CE Emphasis • Academic Identity & Focus: • ODL • Comprehensive PQM • Delivery model • Graduateness • Access and admissions policy • Enabling Mechanisms & Resources • Primary & support services • Appropriate BA/EAs: (People, Systems, Resources/Infrastructure & Technology) • Enabling Conditions: (Leadership & Management, Culture & Climate) 2015 Strategic Plan: • Strategic Outcomes: revisit • 10 Strategic Objectives: thematic clustering • Strategies: review • Targets : review

  11. Strategic Planning Issues • IOP list – organisational issues (distilled from: recent Makgotla, PVC summit, HEQC, 2008 IOP mid-year progress report) • Leadership & management • Communication • Alignment of individual, departmental institutional and social purpose & meaning • Shared understandings & buy-in • PQM – HEQC (comprehensiveness) • Recurriculation – relevance (Africanness) • Enrolment planning (teaching input, operational implications) • Throughput and success (teaching output) • Research output (M&D, publications) • QA/Risk Management/IPMS • Staffing: Achram, capacity, employment equity, succession planning • Budget

  12. Implementation • College plan & College component of other plans • Objectives • Strategies projects • Resources • Activities/actions • Projects • Scheduling/dependencies • Importance of shifting planning/project management mode in order to execute strategy

  13. Performance Management • Targets • Performance measures • Progress reporting/Monitoring & Evaluation (Review) • Supported by Information & Analysis: • Business Intelligence Framework • Institutional Research

  14. Strategic Planning Issues:1. Enrolment Planning

  15. Key strategic decision • Comply with ministerial target or negotiate upwards and/or onwards? Can we sustain quality and operational service delivery? • Accepting increases based on potential new negotiated role for Unisa: • Maintaining high participation rates in the light of declining residential enrolments and impacts of HIV/AIDS • Addressing teacher education crisis • Serving continental needs • Despite ‘knee-jerk’ nature of recent HE policy (generated by tension between widened participation imperative/Treasury efficiency concerns & fiscal constraint), this new role will not be condoned without Unisa responsibly and demonstrably addressing success & throughput efficiencies

  16. Key strategic challenge • Responsibly managed open access is therefore an unavoidable imperative • This means balancing seemingly contradictory policy goals: • Commitment to open access, as part of our institutional social mandate • Commitment to enhancing success & throughput efficiency • Commitment to ensuring high quality & relevant graduate outcomes for employment and the critical citizenship in the African context

  17. Managed open access • Not exclusionary, but realistically supportive in the light of changing student profile (details in forthcoming HEMIS update) • Involves rigorous pre-registration engagement to: • Test appropriately for academic potential and readiness • Ensure conducive & supportive life conditions • Ensure right programme & subject choice and realistic study loads • Identify appropriate tutorial & Pastoral support and channelling

  18. Policy Tensions • HE fulfils multiple purposes: • Academic, vocational & professional graduates for labour market • Knowledge production for innovation and economic & social development • Formative education, cultural & intellectual enrichment • Independent space for fostering critical debate & citizenship • Means of enhancing social mobility and distribution of opportunity & wealth • Attempting to fulfil these simultaneously can generate (apparent & real) conflicts and policy tensions • eg Excellence/Efficiency vs Equity/Access

  19. Policy Tension in Enrolment Planning At the heart of Unisa’s enrolment planning lies such a policy tension namely: • Growth & expansion, driven by: • National policy framework emphasising widening participation, driven, in turn, by both equity and development needs • Unisa’s social mandate to provide affordable, flexible access to higher education for non-traditional, disadvantaged students • Increasing & unabating market demand (see figures) • Unisa’s emerging role in addressing teacher education crisis and continental HRD needs vs • Controlled growth & capping, driven by: • Fiscal constraint, leading to ministerial enrolment targets (role of Treasury) • Concern for efficiency & success/throughput – avoiding the revolving door syndrome (systemic & institutional levels) • Operational efficiency & service delivery constraints

  20. The Key Strategic Decision • Continued Open access in line with DoE requirements for widened participation, market demand vs • New ‘Responsible’ open admission & enrolment in line with renegotiated DOE enrolment targets, emphasis on success & throughput, operational considerations

  21. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-7 • TotalHEMIS HCs • Increased from 206 178 in 2004 to 254 136 in 2007 • 2006/5: 9,43% up • 2007/6: 11,69% up • Active HCs • 2007: 239 581 (94,3% active rate) – 5,4% increase on 2006 • Approaching 2010 ministerial target of 258 023

  22. 2008 Enrolment Projection

  23. Actual & projected enrolment & output performance against targets

  24. Strategic Planning Issues: 2. Improving Throughput & Success

  25. A visual metaphor ... • Key success factor: adequate time for study • Key risk factor: unrealistic course load • Consequence: no progression!

  26. Performance Management:Examples of Performance Dashboards

  27. Progress Monitoring:Example of OP Monitoring Tool

  28. Profiling, tracking, modelling & prediction – in different views

  29. Student Profiling Educational Background • Matric Status (Exempt./Non) • Matric Aggregate • Previous Inst. Type • Matric Scores • Course Type • Course Load Unisa Destination • College • CESM/FOS • Qual. Category (B Tech etc) • Qual. Type (Degree/Dipl/Cert.) • Qual. Level (UG/PG) Student SES/ Demographics • Race • Gender • Age • Home language • Nationality • Employment Status • Location • Marital Status • Economic Status • Domestic/ • Financial responsibilities • Health & Wellness Individual factors • Socio-psychological metrics (?) • Academic Record • Academic Activities/Behaviours (tracking)

  30. Course Profiling Course history • Enrolment/ • sustainability patterns • Success Rate (‘killer Module’?) • Student evaluation Course level • Entry • Exit • Humanities & Social Sciences/Education • Law • Business/Commerce • Science, Engineering & Technology CESM/FOS Course type • Pre-requisite • Compulsory • Elective

  31. Staff profiling • Employment equity: key variables by designated groups • Succession planning: key variables by age • Capacity development: key variables by highest qualifications • Qualitative profiling • Understanding (but not necessarily condoning) the attitudes & experiences of staff is key to effective change management as a basis for realising strategic goals • Organisational theory identifies various positions which staff take up within organisations in relation to change initiatives • What might this look like in current Unisa climate?

  32. Change profile Self constructions/identity tensions: • Collegialism-managerialism: Resistance to compliance and planned environment vs nostalgic attavists • Teaching-Research nexis • Academic-Educator identity • Meaningful identification-alienation : • Based on alignment of personal, departmental, institutional and social purposes, and shared understandings of institutional vision (King Solomon/NASA/Disney adage) • Self-interested minimalists-inspired initiative takers

  33. College Profile1. 2004 - 2009 Provisional Registration Figures

  34. Provisional RegistrationFormal Headcounts by College, 2004 - 2009 to date

  35. Provisional RegistrationProportion of Formal Headcounts by College, 2004 - 2009 to date, compared to Ministerial targets

  36. Provisional RegistrationCAES Place of Residence by Continent, 2004-9

  37. Provisional Registration CAES Place of Residence by Hub, 2004-9

  38. Provisional Registration CAES by Age Group, 2004-9

  39. Provisional Registration CAES Headcount by Qualification Types, 2004-9

  40. Provisional Registration CAES Headcount by Home Language, 2004-9 NB: Please note that French & Portuguese were classified as other African languages as the majority of our students are African

  41. Provisional Registration CAES Headcount by Matric Certification, 2004-9

  42. Provisional Registration CAES Headcount by Employment Status, 2004-9

  43. College Profile2. 2004 - 2008 HEMIS Figures

  44. CAESHEMIS Headcounts 2004-8, compared to Ministerial target

  45. CAESHEMIS Headcount by Race, 2004-8

  46. CAESHEMIS Headcount by Race, 2004-8

  47. CAESHEMIS Headcounts by Gender, 2004-8

  48. CAES HEMIS Headcount by Gender, 2004-8

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