One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited

1. One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited Paul Convery 8th July 2009

2. The economic vision for Enfield • To increase jobs and wealth in the Borough: • tackle worklessness and poverty • create a more socially cohesive Borough • residents secure a good standard of living • residents achieve their ambitions and goals • This requires us to: • foster enterprise • raise skills • increase employment throughout the Borough But this was a vision devised in “good times” …

3. But … recession has struck • We start this recession with more workless claimants than previous recession • JSA totals rose rapidly between May 2008 and May 2009 • the number of other claimants (IB/IS) has remained fairly static • employment rate was already declining However … so far there is: • Not much worsening of defaults on Council Tax and business rates • No noticeable increase in demand for Council or RSL housing • Limited evidence of mortgage default and forced sales But there are risks ahead: • This year’s school and college leavers face a very uncertain future • Local economy is already weak … and recessions tend to have “lagging” effects • Worst wards performing worse: the gap is widening

4. The “Enfield paradox” • … the Borough did not fully benefit from London’s rapid growth in the last decade or so … • … but we may suffer disproportionately from the downturn. Preparing for the recovery So, the Borough and its residents may have to work even harder to: • Retain existing businesses in Enfield and help them survive • Attract new businesses to replace the inevitable losses • Make our “place shaping” ambitions succeed • Compete for available jobs elsewhere in London – especially central London and (especially) … • … to equip our young people with the skills and knowledge to gain a foothold in work

5. JSA count has risen by 3,400 – which is a 64% increase (exactly conforms to the London average)

6. Largest absolute increases are in the Borough’s disadvantaged eastern wards. But, these wards have quite small proportionate increases – because they already had much higher JSA totals to start with

7. We already had severe problems … • Employment rate was already worsening – fell from 72% in late 2006 to around 67% by late 2008 • Total number of claimants represented just over 14% of all working age adults (about 20,000 people) in mid 2008 … so is around 23,500 • In worst neighbourhoods, claimant rates of more than 30% • 29% of all households in the Borough (34,500) receive HB/CTB: • in eight wards a third or more of households receiving HB/CTB … in Edmonton Green, it is just over 50%

8. The Enfield economy • We have a growing, changing but under-performing local economy: • Few knowledge intensive sectors • Relatively low output and productivity • Public sector dominates • Small and medium sized firms • Low business formation rates • Limited presence of London’s growth sectors • Employers are not prepared for future change

9. The population is changing … and is under-employed • Population is growing quickly – and is younger • Increasingly diverse … low employment rates • Employment rate gap in the range of between: • 5,000 (match London employment rate) • Or 12,000 (align with GB employment rate) • Or 22,000 (achieve 80% employment rate) • Young adults, women and disabled have low employment rates • Over 25,000 residents want-to-work (mostly inactive) • Geographical concentration has worsened

17. … and the population is lower skilled • Very low employment rates for unskilled … 48,000 (27%) are at level 1 or less • Very high employment rates for level 4+ … but fewer of them • Over the next decade, new jobs will require higher skills – both in the Borough and beyond: • A third will be at Level 4 and a half will be for top 3 SOCs • skilled trades will make-up only 7% of all new jobs • machine operators and elementary occupations will account for another 15%. • A fifth will be OK for no-low skilled • Retail/wholesale, hospitality, business services and public sector • London economy will require more level 3 and 4

22. Action Plan: “stimulate employers” • Support inward investment and business growth to increase demand • Strengthen LEPs • Expand Train to Gain • Increase Skills Pledge firms to 50% • Simplify engagement with businesses • Increase Level 2, Level 3 and progression to HE • Promote apprenticeships • Increase employer engagement in primary and 14-19 • Strengthen business leadership Borough-wide and locally

23. Action Plan: “helping people” • Increase skills and employability in disadvantaged areas and people • Reduce number of benefit claimants in worst areas • Concentrate on priority population groups • Deliver ULV “North London Pledge” • Integrated service offer – Enfield JobNet • Deliver Pathways to Work • Deliver higher volumes of Skills for Life and Skills for Jobs

24. Action Plan: “fixing the wiring” • Better co-ordination, planning, information sharing and networking • Joint commissioning plan • Partners and providers collaborate to seek new funding • Data sharing between partners • Networking between providers of 14-19 and adult services • Strengthen Enfield Observatory’s market intelligence role

25. What might schools and colleges do? • Gain access to adequate information about the emerging labour market and the expectations of employers • Consider formally adopting a strategic intention to equip pupils & students with the skills required in a more knowledge-based and higher technology working future • Consider a more formal reporting of work-related offer in School Improvement Plans and record successes in the self evaluation • Identify further ways to engage with employers in addition to existing connections • Consider how the current school curriculum be adjusted to make sure that pupils & students engaged in more academic courses also benefit from a base of vocational knowledge • Develop closer involvement of employers in their day to day activities so that students get a clearer understanding of the world of work? • Consider other ways (in addition to Diplomas) of offering an alternative curriculum work-focussed offer within the 14-19 phase?