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S2K+2 Airline Training

S2K+2 Airline Training. S2K+2 will cover the following topics. CCFP CCSD/FCA/RMT SWAP Procedures - CDR, Playbook, Vacape, RAT Pathfinder Diversion Recovery EDCT +-5 Systems 2002 Field Training for Controllers. Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). CCFP, Foundational for SPO.

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S2K+2 Airline Training

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  1. S2K+2 Airline Training S2K+2 will cover the following topics... • CCFP • CCSD/FCA/RMT • SWAP Procedures - CDR, Playbook, Vacape, RAT • Pathfinder • Diversion Recovery • EDCT +-5 • Systems 2002 Field Training for Controllers

  2. Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)

  3. CCFP, Foundational for SPO CCFP is the foundational severe weather forecasting tool in developing the Strategic Plan of Operation (SPO).

  4. WHAT CCFP IS • All stakeholders have agreed CCFP is the thunderstorm forecast product for SPT planning • CCFP is used during SPT telcons for the development of the Strategic Plan of Operation (SPO) • CCFP is intended to be used by traffic planners in developing a strategic plan during thunderstorm activity

  5. WHAT CCFP IS cont... • CCFP is a tool that can be used by Dispatchers to supplement weather avoidance planning and pass on suggested routes to AOC Coordinators for the SPT.

  6. WHAT CCFP IS NOT • CCFP will not meet all thunderstorm forecasting needs • CCFP is not intended to support tactical decision making • Other weather forecasting tools (e.g. NCWF, Convective SIGMETS, ITWS, etc.) should be used in conjunction with CCFP

  7. WHAT CCFP IS NOT • CCFP is not just an ATC/AOC Coordinator Tool. • CCFP can be used by Dispatchers in considering routings around CCFP forecasted weather. • Based on CCFP forecasts, Dispatchers can give AOC Coordinators route suggestions on where they would like to route aircraft, in a way that would maintain operational control and safety of flight. • Make these suggestions to the AOC Coordinator before the Strategic Planning Team Telcon.

  8. Collaboration vs. Consensus • CCFP is a Collaboration not a Consensus. • CCFP is not a Consensus where all participants agree upon the final product before it is issued • CCFP is a Collaboration where all participants contribute their meteorological expertise and a final decision is made by a designated authority (AWC is that authority).

  9. CCFP Collaborative Convective Forecast Product CCFP Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

  10. CCFP Overview • Convective weather is the single most disruptive force affecting the National Airspace System (NAS). These disruptions are the largest cause of delays in the system • Mitigation of delays requires collaboration in thunderstorm forecasting used for traffic flow management (TFM) decisions • CCFP seeks to reduce these disruptions by creating an accurate and reliable convective forecast for strategic use through collaboration

  11. The Goal • The goal of the CCFP is to forecast a level of thunderstorm activity (25% coverage or higher) that may impact the NAS. It is not intended to forecast all thunderstorm activity • Thunderstorms of less than 25% coverage may still impact the NAS but are handled as a tactical issue with input from local meteorologists

  12. CCFP Forecast Format • Maximum Tops (HGHT) • Growth (GWTH) • Probability (PROB) • Coverage (CVRG)

  13. Maximum Tops • Maximum tops within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories • 25 – 31,000 feet • 31 – 37,000 feet • 37,000+ feet • Note: The heights identified are the maximum tops forecast within the area and not the average.

  14. Growth • Growth rate • ++ = Fast Positive Growth • + = Moderate Positive Growth • NC = No Change • - = Negative Growth (area/tops decreasing) • The expansion of the thunderstorms needs to be considered as expanding in 3 dimensions • This is an indicator of how the volume of denied airspace associated with the depicted forecast is likely to change with time

  15. Probability • Probability is the term defined as one of three classes: • 70 to 100% High • 40 to 69% Medium • 1 to 39% Low • This feature is used by forecasters to give an estimate of how confident they are a region will develop and is normally determined through the collaborative discussion.

  16. Coverage • Solid linesof convection would be depicted as a purple line • High 75 to 100%andMed 50 to 74%-are areas where overall coverage is likely to exceed 50%. • Low 25 to 49%- is an area of mostly scattered thunderstorms that are predicted to cover 25 to 49% of the area.

  17. Probability & Coverage Low Probability and Low Coverage gives us a higher potential to transition this airspace.

  18. Initial Product • 60 minutes before final issue time AWC will post the initial forecast to the chat room for review • 45 minutes before final issue time the chat room session commences • 15 minutes before final issue time AWC closes the chat room session and develops the final forecast product based on chat room participation

  19. Final Product • The final forecast product is posted on the Web • The SPT uses the final forecast product for the development of a strategic plan

  20. CCFP Package Initial Issue Time Collaboration Session Final Issue Time Valid Time 0300 0145 0200-0230 0245 0500, 0700, 0900 0700 0545 0600-0630 0645 0900, 1100, 1300 1100 0945 1000-1030 1045 1300, 1500, 1700 1500 1345 1400-1430 1445 1700, 1900, 2100 1900 1745 1800-1830 1845 2100, 2300, 0100 2300 2145 2200-2230 2245 0100, 0300, 0500 CCFP Timetable (UTC)

  21. CCFP Web Locations • AWC: http://cdm.aviationweather.noaa.gov/ccfp/index.php3 • Forecast Systems Lab: http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/ • ATCSCC: http://www.fly.faa.gov/

  22. Command Center Web Site WWW.FLY.FAA.GOV

  23. CCFP Collaborative Convective Forecast Product CCFP Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

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