CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Philippines and ENSO (EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)

1. CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Philippines and ENSO (EL Niño-Southern Oscillation) Ernesto R. Verceles PAGASA 01 December 2005

2. WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE? • Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as; • existence of drought or floods • occurrence of destructive typhoons • plant pest and diseases • Influences the timing of many economic activities • Beginning of plowing, planting • postponement of fishing activities • Conduct of field operations and others • Determines the availability of water or soil moisture. • Serves as a major factor in the development of human settlements.

3. CLIMATE - is the long-term average of weather. NORMAL (Climatological Normal) – the average value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Definition of Terms WEATHER- is the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is measured in terms of such parameters as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.

4. SEASON- a division of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or climatic. In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry season). EXTREMES OF CLIMATE– The highest and lowest value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or season). ANOMALY (Departure from Normal) – the deviation of rainfall or temperature from climatological normal . Definition of Terms

5. Natural Hazards Associated with Extreme Climate Influencing factors (Climate Controls) Causes Hazards • Extended dry periods • Early end of rainy season • Weak monsoon activity • Less number of tropical cyclones Drought • Land and Water • Latitude (North/South) • Altitude/Mountain barriers • Passage of tropical cyclones • Intense monsoon rains • Local thunderstorm activity Floods • Semi-permanent High/Low Pressure Systems • Passage of tropical cyclones • Tornadoes • Local thunderstorm activity • Winds, Air Masses Strong winds • Ocean Currents/ Temperatures • Passage of intense tropical cyclones over strategic / prone areas Storm surges • ITCZ • Frontal System • Monsoon surges and other seasonal abnormalities Heat / cold waves • ENSO • Tropical Cyclones • Sun • Geography/Topography • Linear Systems

6. Japan China China Sea Pacific ocean Malaysia Indonesia Geography and topography

7. JANUARY SEPTEMBER JULY OCTOBER FEBRUARY MAY DECEMBER MARCH NOVEMBER AUGUST JUNE APRIL L L L H H H L L H L H H H L L H H H H H H H H H L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L H H H H H H H H H H H SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS

8. Northeast windflow Easterlies (trade winds) Southwest windflow

9. OCEAN TEMPERATURES JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

10. L L L L COLD FRONT Linear Systems ITCZ ITCZ ITCZ ITCZ ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

11. Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones and Annual Average Number Worldwide An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; 30 of which form in the western north pacific area

12. Weather Climate J F M A M J J A S O N D

13. Malaybalay THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperature

14. Musuan THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperatures

15. Northeast Monsoon Season (Amihan) associated with relatively dry season in the country Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) associated with wet season in the country

17. flood drought

18. Philippines Philippines Observed Sea Surface Temperature Lower temp Higher temp Lower temp Higher temp Philippines Philippines Analyzed Sea Surface Temperature CEEP warming CEEP cooling Cooler temp Warmer temp Cooler temp Warmer temp EL NIÑO LA NIÑA El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

19. COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC EL NIÑO LA NIÑA Rainman Rainman GLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSO EL NIÑO LA NIÑA

20. Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay during ENSO and non-ENSO Events

21. Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO on Philippine climate During El Niño Episode During La Niña Episode · Weak monsoon activity Moderate to strong monsoon activity - delayed onset of the rainy season - early termination of the rainy season - increased cloudiness and widespread rains - but, occurrence of isolated heavy rainfall in short duration is also possible - near normal to early onset of the rainy season Moderate to Strong tropical cyclones activity Weak tropical cyclones activity - tropical cyclones follow tracks further off the Philippines - near normal cyclone tracks (near and/or crossing the country) - less number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) - near-to-above normal cyclone occurrences in the PAR - rain-effective cyclones Above normal rainfall Below normal rainfall Near-to-below normal air temperatures Above normal air temperatures Drier weather conditions Wetter weather conditions

22. CLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES

23. Malaybalay THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperature

24. Laging tandaan: “Ang taong laging handa, sakuna’y walang panama!”

25. For more information, VISIT us at http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph http://www.philonline.com/~cab Maraming Salamat Po…