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Climate Test Bed

Climate Test Bed Outreach to the Climate Applications Community. Mel Gelman, for Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. NWS ERH/SRH Climate Workshop, June 20-21, 2007 Peachtree City, GA.

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Climate Test Bed

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  1. Climate Test Bed Outreach to the Climate Applications Community Mel Gelman, for Wayne HigginsClimate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA NWS ERH/SRH Climate Workshop, June 20-21, 2007 Peachtree City, GA

  2. Climate Test Bed/CPC Outreach to the Climate Applications Community • CTB engages with the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to accelerate the transition of this research into CPC products. • We in CPC need your help in doing this.  We need your help in understanding how to do this.

  3. CTB/CPC Outreach • To the Climate Research Community • Competitive Grants Program (with annual AO through NCPO) to accelerate improvements in NCEP climate models and forecast products. • Enhancing interactions and exchange visits with RISAs to develop and deliver new and improved climate forecast products. • To the Climate Product Applications and User Community • We NEED Your Help

  4. Collaborative Transition Projects (CTB Competitive Grants Program) FY06 : Climate Forecast System • Using initial tendency errors to reduce systematic errors (PI: Delsole, COLA; Co-PI: Pan, EMC) • Neural network emulations of model physics (PI: Rabinovitz, U. MD; Co-PI: Krasnapolsky, Saha EMC) • Ocean component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL; Co-PI: Xue, EMC) FY07 : Climate Forecast Products • System-wide advancement of user-centric climate forecast products (PI: Hartmann (UAZ); Co-PI: Ed O’Lenic (CPC))

  5. OUTREACH • Collaboration is key: • Meeting customer demands for climate information. Develop regionally specific forecast products for applications. Work with partners. • Participate in national & regional meetings that bring producers & users together. • Recognize limitations. Work with intermediaries (e.g. RISA, RCC, NWS,CSD). • Links to cooperative institutes, international programs (e.g. CLIVAR, GEWEX), and other agencies. • Collaborative transition projects (Competitive Grants Program).

  6. CPC/CTB Outreach CTB/CPC Outreach RISA: Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC)CPC/CTB Contact: Muthuvel Chelliah RISA Contact: Jim Jones/ Keith Ingram/ Jim O’ Brien Area of Collaboration: Climate Outlook and Service: Downscaling CPC outlooks of Temperature, Precipitation. Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop-Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCMs, CFS hindcasts. • SECC scientist Dr. Guillermo Baigorria visited CPC to develop forecast tools for use in crop yield forecasting in the Southeast United States • Work with Crop Yield Data for Forecast Purposes • Work with Model Hindcasts

  7. CPC/CTB Outreach CTB/CPC Outreach RISA: Western Water Assessment (WWA)CPC/CTB Contact: Michelle L’Heureux RISA Contact: Andrea Ray Area of Collaboration: To exploit the relationship between the MJO and AO to improve sub-seasonal climate forecasts. To develop products tailored to WWA needs and objectives. Temperature Composite MJO Phases 7,8 – Phases 2,3,4

  8. CPC/CTB Outreach CTB/CPC Outreach RISA: Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS)CPC/CTB Contact: Ed O’Lenic RISA Contact: Holly C. Hartmann Area of Collaboration:System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products. 1)  Information Technology and Modular Products Development:   a)  Develop for CPC Simple Object Access Protocol  b)  Develop set of customizable products to serve users. 2)  Establish a framework for delivery of services. Provide user capabilities to interact with products with software which produces user-customized products. 3)  Developing the language and format:    a)  Language appropriate to the users.   b)  Field testing specific products for effectiveness of communication.

  9. FY08 CTB Priority for NIDIS-Drought • New Drought Monitoring products: • Soil Moisture based on multi model ensemble NLDAS and regional reanalysis; • New Drought Forecast tools: • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools; • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved MME dynamical forecasts; • Improved week 1 and week 2 forecasts based on downscaling of NAEFs • Improvements to Operational Drought Monitor & Outlook; • Contributions to NIDIS Portal and NIDIS Pilots.

  10. GIS Conversion at CPCContact: Tim Love • Project Goal: • To convert all operational CPC products to Geographic Information Systems format Example: US Drought Monitor layers superimposed upon precipitation & water bodies Spatially collocated GIS data allows for straightforward analysis • Status/Details • Currently in testing phase • Ascii and binary products will be converted, routinely, using automated techniques • Existing GIS files (such as hazards assessments) will adopt a standardized format • An Internet-based Map Server will allow users to selectively download and overlay CPC GIS files

  11. Applications Outreach • CTB participated in 2006 and 2007 CPAS Workshops, in cooperation with CSD. GIS conversion of all CPC/CTB forecast products is underway. • A program to enhance interactions between CTB/CPC, the RISAs and the ARCs was initiated to identify and meet user needs for regionally specific and enhanced climate forecast products. • Specific CTB/CPC personnel work as liaisons with counterparts at the various RISA centers. • CTB/CPC makes short visits to the different RISAs to provide customized CPC overviews of CPC’s forecast, monitoring and assessment products. • RISAs are invited to send longer term visitors (up to several months) to CPC to develop customized products from CPC product suite. • We intend to expand this program to include other centers, to gain an understanding of needs for enhanced CPC products. • In support of NIDIS,work is in progress towards more objective, model based, drought/hydrology monitoring and outlook on week1, week2 and seasonal time scales.

  12. The CTB “Message” • The CTB will: • Deliver opportunities for goal directed research (both funded and unfunded) using the NCEP Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. • Enhance cooperative partnerships between CPC and the broader climate research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility (supercomputer and support staff) to facilitate smooth transitions. • Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NCEP operational climate forecasts, products and applications. • Increase the accuracy, reliability, range and scope of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.WE NEED YOUR HELP

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