THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

1. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED 14 Aug 2005 Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission:to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

2. OUTLINE • Motivation • Short Term Plans • CTB Framework • Infrastructure • Transition Projects (Competitive Grants Program) • Long Term Plans • Engaging the Community • Multi-Agency Participation • Organization • Budget • Milestones • Expected Outcomes

3. MOTIVATION(Scientific) • NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. • The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. • Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications. • Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements.

4. Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)

5. MOTIVATION(Programmatic) • In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. • The CTB will • provide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide an operational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

6. CTB ACTIONS In order to accelerate improvements in NOAA climate forecasts, products and applications the CTB must define a process to: • Clearly identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the climate research community, the NOAA operational centers, and the applications community.   • Clearly identify and delineate different types of transition: • Research to Operations: define where the operational center picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from the research community occurs. • Operations to Applications: define where the applications community picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a “hand-off” from the operations community occurs. • Identify resources for research, operations and applications to ensure smooth transitions.  

7. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process Research and Development 1 • Large “volume” of R&D, • funded through AOs, • Agency Labs… • Smaller set of R&D • products suitable for • operations. • 3. Systematic transition steps • R2O. • 4. Systematic transition steps • O2A • Delivery to diverse USER • community 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 3 N C E P Operations 4 O2A User Community 5

8. FRAMEWORK • Infrastructure • Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) • System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) • Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators • Management and Administrative Staff • Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant • Transition Projects • Base (internally) Funded • Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less • FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices • Announcements of Opportunity • Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years • Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues • NOAA or external lead PIs • Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

9. CURRENT CTB RESOURCES • NCEP Contributions • Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) • 23 Redirected FTEs • Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC) • System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) • CPC Scientists – 16 • EMC Scientists – 1.5 • NOAA Climate Program Office • Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure ( 1 System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Some additional funding for near term transition projects. • Funding for AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

10. CTB TRANSITION PROJECTS • Base (internally) Funded (FY05) – “Short Term plans” • Assessments of NCEP operational climate forecast systems (CFS/GFS) • Consolidation of operational forecast tools • Multi-model ensemble system development and data management • Announcements of Opportunity (FY06 +) – “Long Term plans” • Multi-model ensemble system development; MM climate forecasts and applications; Attribution • Model development through CPTs • Drought monitoring and prediction – support NIDIS • Improve warm season precipitation prediction • Development of application products (e.g. fire, agriculture, energy, water resources) • Climate Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System • Advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon cycle; fisheries)

11. COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT(SAB Teleconference 15 Feb 2005) • The research community should be involved at all levels. • external membership on SAB, CST; • bi-directional flow of information / opportunities; multi-agency participation; • sufficient internal human resources to engage and support the external community (System and Science Support Teams). • The CTB must develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line organizations and external stakeholders. • observational requirements required to advance prediction skill coordinated within NOAA; • connection with NWS/OHD, including the National Hydrologic Prediction System; • Connection to the international research community; • Connection to NIDIS. • The SAB membership should be broadened to include the private sector and additional international participants.

12. CTB LINKS TO OTHER PROGRAMS • CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs • U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program - CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR) • International (WCRP VAMOS [NAME, MESA, VOCALS], AMMA) • CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs) • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data assimilation infrastructure • Improved use of satellite data (Climate applications, reanalysis issues, observing system stability) • Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) • GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible • Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)

13. Oversight Board CPC CDC EMCGFDL IRI NCPO CTB ORGANIZATION Science Advisory Board Director Higgins Program Manager Ji Deputies Pan & Gelman Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Test Bed Users

14. CHARGES FOR OB, CST, AND SAB • Oversight Board (OB): • Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Program Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities. • Climate Science Team (CST): • Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access • Science Advisory Board (SAB): • Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX) • Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb

15. CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS • Q1 – Establish and maintain CTB Annual Budget • Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s) • Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure • Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB • Q2 – Implemented CTB website • Q2 – CTB ToR , “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan • Q3 - CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO • Q4 - Establish MM science team (peer reviewed) • Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004) Outcome: Established 6 CTB TRANSITION PROJECT TEAMS Model Parameterization, Model Sensitivity, Diagnostics, Climate Data Assimilation, Multi-Model Ensembles, Climate Products and Applications

16. MILESTONES (FY06-FY07) • CTB Science and Implementation Plan • Establish CTB System Support Team • Establish CTB Science Support Team • Establish CTB Visiting Scientist Program • CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO • Transition GFDL model to CTB for multi-model testing. • Implement operational consolidation of Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast tools

17. MILESTONES (FY08-FY11) • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL) • Transition NASA model to CTB • Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA) • Bring operational drought monitoring and prediction on line

18. CTB OUTCOMES • New and improved data sets and components for NOAA climate models; • New and improved methods to provide more accurate ISI climate forecasts; • New and improved application products to effectively communicate • operational climate forecasts for end users (e.g., water resource, agriculture, • energy, fire risk); • Greater understanding of operational model strengths/weaknesses via • assessment and detailed analyses of model diagnostics; • Improved use of climate observations for enhanced operational climate • forecast and application products; • Evaluation and refined requirements for observing systems.

19. CTB MEETINGS • Annual Meeting (October): • to evaluate current CTB activities and to establish future science priorities for CTB collaborative transition projects. • Management Team Meetings (monthly) • to discuss progress on current CTB activities and plans for the future. • Teleconferences (as needed) • The CST, SAB, and OB hold occasional teleconferences with the CTB Management Team on focused topics. Powerpoint presentations / meeting minutes are posted. • Board Meetings (annual) • At least once per year the SAB meets in executive session to discuss progress on CTB activities and to make recommendations for future science priorities.