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Climate policies and the carbon market: Implications for wind power. Point Carbon, April 2010. Point Carbon. Trading analytics & research; Advisory; News and conferences Carbon, power and gas markets 210 employees (30 Ph.Ds) Oslo, London, Washington, Kiev, Zürich, Hamburg, Tokyo, Malmø
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Climate policies and the carbon market:Implications for wind power Point Carbon, April 2010
Point Carbon • Trading analytics & research; Advisory; News and conferences • Carbon, power and gas markets • 210 employees (30 Ph.Ds) • Oslo, London, Washington, Kiev, Zürich, Hamburg, Tokyo, Malmø • 60.000 subscribers in 150 domains
Trading mechanisms • The Kyoto Protocol • Cap-and-trade between industrialised countries • Joint Implementation (JI), projects in industrialised countries • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), projectsin developing countries • EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) • Allocation to 13.000 installations in 27 EU countries • Use of credits from JI and CDM • Regional US schemes and hedging of a future US federal scheme
Likely future international architecture Implementation of the Climate Change Convention Non-binding targets for all developed countries and advanced developing countries Reporting by all countries Financing and forest management No allocation, international offset mechanisms nor compliance regime Probably new Kyoto Protocol targets Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol: ” Commitments for subsequent periods for Parties included in Annex I shall be established in amendments to Annex B to this Protocol…” Timeline Unlikely to happen before Johannesburg Two more years needed to flesh out all details
Carbon price expectations • EU Allowances: We find it likely that the EU eventually will adopt a target that is more ambitious than 20%, prices will go up • CDM: The mechanism will undoubtly continue but we are uncertain about the demand: prices are likely to stay at today’s level