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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014 SCT showers NW ASSOCIATED WITH A STAIONARY SHEAR LINE. Isolated elsewhere. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W SE OF CHUUK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL NO INCLINATION TO MOVE ANYWHERE.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014

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  1. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014 SCT showers NW ASSOCIATED WITH A STAIONARY SHEAR LINE. Isolated elsewhere. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W SE OF CHUUK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL NO INCLINATION TO MOVE ANYWHERE. Progs ALL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS IF93W moves W.

  2. ‘current’ conditions: satellite IR imagery on 2014-02-23, ~21UTC (02-24 Mon, ~7AM) • Convection organized near 9N 150E (cld tops ~56 kft w/ lightning near 9N, 150E)

  3. Water Vapor 2014-02-23 Sun, ~7AM Water Vapor 2014-02-24 Mon, ~7AM

  4. Overnight at Andersen:02-24 Mon AM

  5. ‘current’ conditions: sounding on 2014-02-23, 12UTC (02-23 Sun 10PM) • tropopause -84.7 C • (188.45 K) at 56.2 kft

  6. Tue take-off conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC (02-25 Tue, 04AM) NE 20 knt • Surface cyclone SE of Guam

  7. Tue take-off conditions (GFS): 850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC (02-25 Tue, 04AM) Dry slot over Guam. NE winds 25 kts.

  8. Tue take-off conditions (GFS): 500mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC (02-25 Tue, 04AM)

  9. Tue landing conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-25, 12UTC (02-25 Tue, 10PM) NE 25 knt

  10. Tue landing conditions (GFS): 850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 12UTC (02-25 Tue, 10PM) NE 25 knt

  11. Tue take-off and landing conditions (NCAR): Feb 24 18UTC Feb 25 12UTC Take Off: Landing: SCT SCT SCT SCT

  12. Tue Take Off conditions (GFS): high clouds & 150mb winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC (02-25 Tue, 4AM) Ci Cu/Cb

  13. Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5): Minimum Temperature on 2014-02-25, 00UTC (02-25 Tue, 10AM) RBN

  14. Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5): Tropopause altitude on 2014-02-25, 00UTC (02-25 Tue, 10AM) 55 kft 50 kft 53 kft

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