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Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa. Carl Haub carlh@prb.org Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC. German Association for the United Nations Berlin, 13 September 2010. World Population. 1900 1.6 Billion. World Population. 2000

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Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

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  1. Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa Carl Haub carlh@prb.org Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC German Association for the United Nations Berlin, 13 September 2010 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

  2. World Population 1900 1.6 Billion

  3. World Population 2000 6.1 Billion

  4. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population, 1950 to 2050 Projected Billions 1.8 IF the total fertility rate in 2050 has declined to 2.6 lifetime births per woman, down from 5.2 today. World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

  5. Population of the World’s Regions, 2010 and 2050 Projected Millions Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  6. Projected Growth of World Regional Populations, 2010 to 2050 Millions Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  7. Fewer and Fewer Potential Parents = Unprecedented Aging: Europe by Age and Sex, 2010 Age Females Males Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  8. Youthful Population = Large Potential Population Growth: Sub-Saharan Africa by Age and Sex, 2010 Age Females Males Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  9. Africa’s Population by Region, 1950 to 2050 Projected Billions MiddleAfrica World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 SouthernAfrica Northern Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

  10. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2010 865 Million Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  11. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2050 Projected 1.83 Billion Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  12. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)GesamtfruchtbarkeitsrateoderZusammengefasste GeburtenzifferoderDurchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime ifthe birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.

  13. The “Demographic Divide” The Example of Ethiopia and Germany EthiopiaGermany Population 2010 (millions) 85 82 Population 2050 (millions) 174 72 Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.3 Annual Number of Births 3,280,000 648,000 Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14 Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20 Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5 Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,250 GNI PPP per capita, 2008 US$ 870 US$ 35,940 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  14. Population Under Age 15 (Percent) 1980 and 2010 ca. 1980ca. 2010 Western Africa 46 43 Middle Africa 43 46 Eastern Africa 46 44 Northern Africa 44 33 Southern Africa 42 32 India 41 32 China 32 18 1980 and 2010 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau

  15. What ARE Population Projections? • Population projections are scenarios: “If this happens, then that will happen.” • They are not forecasts or predictions.

  16. How Are Projections Made? • The commonly-used United Nations Medium Variant projection assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman. • That assumption is, in turn, dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America. The UN is very careful to point that out.

  17. Fertility Assumptions: The Example of Uganda Children per woman (TFR) 34 Million 152 Million 103 Million 91 Million United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

  18. United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision and 2010 World Population Data Sheet

  19. Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa Begins at a Young AgeAge-specific Fertility Rates, 2005-2010 Births per 1,000 women in each age group United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

  20. Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006 Two Very Different Histories Lifetime children per woman Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

  21. Lifetime children per woman Circles indicate survey years Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

  22. Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys - con’t Lifetime children per woman Circles indicate survey years Demographic and Health Surveys, Statistics South Africa, 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate

  23. How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?” Kenya Madagascar Ghana 4.6 4.0 4.8 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Latest DHS total fertility rate in red

  24. How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?” – con’t Niger Uganda Zambia 6.5 6.2 7.1 Demographic and Health Surveys Latest DHS total fertility rate in red

  25. Reported Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods) Early/mid-1990s and Most Recent % of Married women, ages 15-49 using a modern method TFRs= 4.3/3.8 6.1/6.2 6.1/4.8 5.8/4.7 6.9/6.7 5.2/4.0 6.5/6.0 5.7/5.7 6.0/5.7 Demographic and Health Surveys and 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Burkina Faso

  26. Reasons for Discontinuation of Contraceptive Use Percent of users discontinuing within 12 months Demographic and Health Surveys

  27. Family Planning Use by Method, Married/in-Union Women, Ages 15-49 Percent using Demographic and Health Surveys

  28. With How Many Living Children Do Women Say They Wish to Stop Childbearing? Number of children when women who wish to stop childbearing reaches 50 percent + + + + TFR= 5.7 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.4 6.0 4.0 3.8 4.6 Demographic and Health Surveys

  29. “Unmet Need” for Family Planning Appears to Show a Desire to Space or Limit Births Percent of married/in-union women, ages 15-49 TFR= 6.7 6.1 4.0 5.4 6.6 6.2 6.3 5.7 5.7 7.0 Demographic and Health Surveys

  30. Demographic and Health Survey

  31. United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Database

  32. HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006 Percent of adult population UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys

  33. The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2008 Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision

  34. The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2000 Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

  35. Improvements in Infant Mortality, Past and Projected, 1950 - 2050 Deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 births United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  36. Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa2005-2010 Life Tables, (lx function) Percent surviving United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  37. Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in AfricaProjected to 2045-2050, Life Tables (lx function) Percent surviving United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

  38. Slow Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (1990) (2008) (1990-92) (2005-07) Note: Dark line = 2015 MDG Goal (1990) (2005) United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010

  39. United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009

  40. Section 24, National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Uganda Population Secretariat, 2008 Fertility 24. Total fertility rate has persistently remained high at 6.9 children per woman in 2001 and 6.7 in 2006. This is mainly due to cultural and religious beliefs and preference for large families as the source of sustenance especially during old age. This situation has created a large dependent population, and engendered conditions not favourable for women's reproductive health. Urbanisation, education, higher income and improved decision making within the household are associated with reduced fertility.

  41. Thank You! carlh@prb.org

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