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DSC’s entry into the E&P sector. NELP VII. Agenda. DS Objectives and Strategy NELP VII Objectives and Strategy Action Plan. DS Objective & Strategy for Oil. DSC Board’s Objectives for E&P Cash multiple of X times by which year? IRR of 25% by Year 8 NPV of X $ million by which year?
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DSC’s entry into the E&P sector NELP VII
Agenda • DS Objectives and Strategy • NELP VII Objectives and Strategy • Action Plan
DS Objective & Strategy for Oil • DSC Board’s Objectives for E&P • Cash multiple of X times by which year? • IRR of 25% by Year 8 • NPV of X $ million by which year? • Strategy • Entry into Indian Oil Industry through NELP VII • Acquisition of Acreage/blocks in order hopefully to discover reserves (!) • Commitment of $200 million (?) • Over 7-8 years • Form JVs with experienced E&P Companies • Manpower, Systems & Software • Outsource first and then build In-house
DS Objective & Strategy for Oil • Initial Strategy • Active JV Partner vs Sleeping Partner? • Depends on partner • Working interest • 90% [Naftogaz]; 20%? [OIL or other offshore operator] • How do we realise value? • Farm out (i.e. sell part of working interest for cash, royalty or work done) • Win revenue from production • Do we enter Production [delay the decision]
NELP Objective & Strategy • Objectives • Acquire x blocks that imply capital expenditure of $y million (approx. $200 million?) • Say 5 blocks for a balanced affordable portfolio • But need to bid for say 10 blocks to win 5… • Revised estimate of $225 million on exploration for 10 blocks (8 onshore) for typical winning minimum work programmes, expended over 7-8 years (taken from analysis of NELP VI winners) • Revised estimate of additional $57m for 10 Blocks if one discovery is found on each of them (the obligatory appraisal programme in the Contract)
NELP Objective & Strategy • Overall Strategy • Take a working interest of at least 80% for onshore blocks • Willing to take minority interest in offshore blocks • Joint venture with experienced Operators • Sole risk on a few ‘S’ blocks? • Active (lead) JV Partner where high working interest • Leverage other partners’ technical teams to our advantage • After award, spread risk by: • Farm-in to additional 5 blocks by trading equity and/or paying cash and/or work • Farm-out to other companies if DSC win too many blocks
NELP Objective & Strategy • Detailed Strategy Analyse about 20 blocks in detail, ideally 25+ • Latter achievable if help from JV partners • Bid on 10 blocks ideally (to win 5) • Budget must cover winning all blocks (or farm out)! • Achieve maximum marks on the biddable Minimum Work Programme (MWP) • Achieve DSC’s minimum corporate hurdle IRR in fiscal package
NELP Action Plan • Mobilise • Teams, hardware, software, videocoms starting now • Public information to pre-prioritise blocks for detailed study (starting now until Jan 8th) • Supplemented by contact with DGH • View online data as soon as DGH makes it available • Focus on the 38 onshore and shallow offshore • Agreement with Naftogaz (onshore) • Negotiate with OIL for offshore, but identify competitor offshore operators • OIL unlikely to collaborate on many blocks, or permit DSC significant working interest
NELP Action Plan • Mumbai road show- Jan 8th • Overview; potential JVs; networking • Physical data room- hopefully Jan 10th • Objectives: finalise blocks for detailed analysis; fine tune additional data for purchase • Purchase of data packages- from Jan 10th • Interpret seismic and well data- Jan 10th to Mar 10th • Identify possible hydrocarbon accumulations on each block analysed, their range of potential sizes, and the geological probability that they exist and are economic
NELP Action Plan • Above information passed to Engineering (25th Jan until 10th Mar), who then deliver: • Recovery factor • Production profile • No. of wells • Cost of wells and surface facilities and pipelines • Schedule to first oil/gas • Capital and operating cost schedules, and pipeline/processing tariffs • Economic modeling (25th Jan to 25th Mar) • Input assumptions (e.g. oil and gas price series; escalation) • Basic cash flows • PSC terms (easily adjustable) • Any additional India- specific taxation
NELP Action Plan • Outputs (1st Mar to 31st Mar) • Economic metrics for various bid strategies (e.g. IRR, NPVX, EMV, Payback, maximum exposure) • Range of potential hydrocarbons in place and probability of existence • Cost of Minimum work programme for each favoured block • Outputs according to bid rules and according to reality! • Bid package suitable for submission (25th Mar to 5th Apr) • Legal and taxations final due diligence • Board presentations • Internal decision making • Submission to government
NELP Immediate Steps (in order of priority) • Purchase I.H.S database ($70k approx. for min. one year, and temporary export to Buenos Aires) NOW! • Purchase/lease geophysics software ($55k to $130k, temp exp to BA) NOW! • Purchase high end hardware for $60k for temp export to BA) NOW! • Review existing video conferencing hardware for compatibility and purchase two units for temp exp to BA and UK for $60k (or borrow chairman’s in London?) • Resolve data upload capability in Delhi for use of video conferencing (bonded ADSL?) • Purchase/lease other software ($265k to $500k) for temp exp to BA • Identify Indian academic to advise on petroleum geology of offered Blocks.
NELP Cost Estimate of Exploration and Appraisal Work Programmes (based on NELP VI winning bids)