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From Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa)

From Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa). To Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). J. Roberto Jovel / Ricardo Zapata. Some things are easier to measure than others. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE The value of lives lost or affected

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From Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa)

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  1. From Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa) To Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) J. Roberto Jovel / Ricardo Zapata

  2. Some things are easier to measure than others • IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE • The value of lives lost or affected • The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services provided • The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) • The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational) • IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE • The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The potential losses in equipment and inventories • The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected infrastructure • The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapse RJ

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  4. Defining Post-Disaster Needs Post-disaster urgent activities: Economic recovery Reconstruction of assets Economic recovery program required to restore • Personal and family income • Essential services or lifelines • Production activities in affected sectors Reconstruction program required to repair or replace physical assets RJ

  5. Defining Post-Disaster Needs .. The scope and financial needs of the economic recovery and reconstruction programs, must be defined on a solid quantitative basis Financial needs must be assigned on the basis of the following criteria • Spatial • Sectorial • Affected population groups The Damage and Loss Assessment provides the quantitative inputs required for planning and monitoring these Post-Disaster Programs RJ

  6. 2006 Yogyakarta Quake DaLa RJ

  7. Use of Sector Analysis Economic Recovery Programme Reconstruction Programme RJ

  8. From Losses to Economic Recovery Plan

  9. Use of DALA for Recovery Planning Value of Production Losses Impact on: Macro-economic performance Individual and family income Enterprise performance Economic Recovery Program Temporary employment programs Special sector reactivation programs Short-term, soft loans for micro and SMEs RJ

  10. Economic Recovery Program Components Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-economic and individual impact • Income generation schemes for most affected population groups, with special reference to those that are not credit worthy • Provision of soft term financing to re-start production activities in micro, small and medium sized enterprises • Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum delays of reconstruction start and execution RJ

  11. Scope and Priorities in Economic Recovery Scope and priorities of each subprogram defined on basis of criteria arising from loss assessment: • Most affected sectors • Most affected geographical areas • Most affected population groups RJ

  12. Losses as Indicator of Economic Recovery Needs A comparison of amount of production losses versus GDP for each affected sector provides measure of impact on sector performance When such impact is high, special sectorial production recovery programs must be designed Financial needs for each sector and subsector can be estimated from value of production losses RJ

  13. Spatial Priorities for Economic Recovery Amount of Losses per District RJ

  14. Spatial Priorities For Economic Recovery GDP Growth Decline by District RJ

  15. Sector Priorities for Economic Recovery Concentration on SMEs RJ

  16. From Damage to Reconstruction Needs

  17. Use of DALA for Reconstruction Planning Value of Damage • Reconstruction Programme • Financing needs • Priorities for reconstruction • Sectorial • Geographical Reconstruction Needs Damage + Technological improvement + Relocation costs + Cost of mitigation + Inflation Financing Formula Government funds Private sector funds Insurance reimbursement International grants International loans - diversion existing loans - fresh loans RJ

  18. Reconstruction Needs Value of damage must be supplemented to define financial needs of reconstruction program, by introducing criteria from reconstruction strategy and inflation rates: • Reconstruction strategy (“building back better”) • Quality improvement • Technological innovation • Introduction of mitigation measures • Relocation to safe areas • Overall multi-year inflation due to combination of • Speculation • Scarcity RJ

  19. Reconstruction Needs Financial needs for reconstruction can be defined, focused and prioritized on the basis of the damage assessment, duly adjusted as indicated in previous slide Criteria for assignation of financial resources • Per capita damage figures • Sector distribution of damage • Spatial distribution of damage RJ

  20. Spatial Priorities for Reconstruction Total Damage per District RJ

  21. Spatial Priorities for Reconstruction.. Damage per Capita per District RJ

  22. Sector Priorities for Reconstruction RJ

  23. From quantitative to qualitative Damage and losses to natural capital and impact on cultural assets: some recent examples

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  25. PREVENTION VS. RECONSTRUCTION OPPORTUNITY COSTS IN THE FACE OF OTHER INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS RJ

  26. Natural asset losses and its economic effects RJ

  27. Environmental damage and losses and disasters • Lack of appropriate valuation of natural capital (environmental audits and environmental degradation leading to risk increase) • Inappropriate valuation of environmental services: forest services, water retention, CO2 sinking, risk reduction and natural protection, landscape value, tourism-related services • Economic valuation of public goods: free riders, externalities and investment requirements RJ

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  33. Use of cost based valuation methods • i) Replacement cost method: cost of replacing the good or service used as a proxy for the good’s/service’s value. But since most cultural goods are unique and can not be replaced preserving the total value (use and non-use) of the original, only in few cases it is possible to replace a damaged or lost cultural asset to obtain a replica that is as close as possible to the original and its values • ii) Restoration cost method assesses the value of a good or service by estimating the costs of restoring the good or service to its original condition (applicable to partially destroyed assets). • iii) Substitute cost method establishes the market price of an asset that could be a substitute to the damaged one. • iv) Preventive expenditure method (mitigation or defensive expenditure) focuses on the costs of preventing the damages or losses from occurring (For example, costs of maintainence such as conservation measures as providing even temperature and humidity within the premises of a museum or cathedral to protect its contents) RJ

  34. Economic impact of cultural heritage Economic and non-economic impact (defined in the Cultural Heritage and Development, World Bank, 2005): a) Positive economic impact on • poverty reduction; • national employment levels; • level of the total output and revenue form cultural and service industries; • foreign exchange earnings; b) Beneficial non-economic impact on: • educational level and identity cultivation; • social cohesion, inclusion and development of social capital; • continuous expansion of the nations’ cultural patrimony; • safeguarding and conveying the heritage to future generations in a sustainable manner. RJ

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  38. Environmental damage caused by soil erosion: Stan impact in Guatemala departments RJ

  39. Cultural heritage and socioeconomic losses caused by disasters RJ

  40. Alternative valuation methods available • Use and non use value • Economic income generated by environmental and cultural goods • Who is to pay: willingness to pay and price fixation • Value associated to other goods and service with market value • Tourism • Culture and education: historical value • Preservation of cultural and religious identity of communities / societies RJ

  41. Viviendas huipiles Cortes de tela costo total Departamento destruidas destruidos costo total Q destruidos costo total Q telares Q Total Q Total 2,603 15,618 26,550,600 15,618 15,618,000 5,206 780,900 42,949,500 Chimaltenango 8 48 81,600 48 48,000 16 2,400 132,000 Sololá 1,986 11,916 20,257,200 11,916 11,916,000 3,972 595,800 32,769,000 Quezaltenango 29 174 295,800 174 174,000 58 8,700 478,500 Huehuetenango 580 3,480 5,916,000 3,480 3,480,000 1,160 174,000 9,570,000 Cultural heritage assessment: an example from indigenous population losses in Guatemala RJ

  42. Thank You.

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