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Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH

Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH. Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research. Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation. Awareness-building Assessment Remediation or replacement Testing Independent verification and validation Implementation.

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Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH

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  1. Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby

  2. Kinds of Research • Research as engagement • Learnings so far • Research as observation

  3. Awareness-building Assessment Remediation or replacement Testing Independent verification and validation Implementation Work with suppliers and customers Contingency planning A Y2K Plan

  4. Research as Engagement • Newsweek • World Wide Web • Colleagues • Compac • FCC • WDC Y2K • Austria

  5. Research as Engagement 2 • Panel discussions at GW • International Emergency Managers • Summer of 1998 -- Gordon, lectures, solution • Washington Post panels • Spring 1999 EPA • July conference -- Ferguson • Halloween -- Indonesia

  6. Learnings: Management • Few managers understand the infrastructure of modern society • Bureaucracies are designed to deal with recurring, not novel problems • Management science has focused on optimizing processes rather than how to create resilient organizations

  7. Learnings: Politics • Leaders are more concerned with avoiding association with problems than with solving or managing problems • Leaders in both parties and at all levels, including corporations, have avoided discussing y2k • The press has followed the suggestions of national leaders in covering y2k

  8. Learnings: Economics 1 • The standard equilibrium model does not cope well with a universal problem triggered by a point in time • The equilibrium model assumes there is time for organizations to adapt • Some firms may gain market share and others may lose market share, but many firms do not simultaneously stop functioning

  9. Learnings: Economics 2 • Rational self-interest is a much weaker motivator than tradition or inertia • The efficient market hypothesis applies only to routine kinds of information • The bias of investment advisers toward market growth and stability outweighs client interests

  10. Learnings: Sociology • The interests of the economy and of society have diverged • The needs of the economy take precedence over the needs of people • Preparation implies there is an alternative to the current social and economic system • Management culture is about careers more than stewardship either of organizations or of society

  11. Learnings: Psychology • Few people seek to understand new phenomena • Y2K is a threat to coping with more routine concerns • The percentage of systems thinkers in society is small

  12. Research opportunities 1 • Which societies were more vulnerable to disruptions -- well-prepared high tech societies or less prepared low tech societies? • Why were some organizations / societies more resilient than others? • What style of leadership / organizational structure / org. culture responded best?

  13. Research opportunities 2 • What is the geography of cyberspace, not just the internet but all information processing machines? • How does a society make a sudden transition to a lower level of consumption? • How does a society “reboot” its economy?

  14. Research opportunities 3 • Which communities were most prepared and why? • What is the appropriate role of universities in dealing with a problem such as y2k? • What kinds of people were most successful at understanding y2k?

  15. Possible institutional changes • Accounting firms may be asked to review IT assets and contingency plans as well as financial assets • New types of international cooperation • New roles for associations • New functions for universities and think tanks • More interest in local government

  16. The upside of y2k • We shall learn a lot about complex systems • Unprecedented research opportunities -- an extraordinary social experiment • Opportunities for public service • Opportunities to redesign government services

  17. Www.gwu.edu/~y2k • List of my publications and presentations • List of panel discussions arranged at GW including powerpoint slides and Real Video • List of future symposia and conferences -- before and after studies of y2k • Surveys • Access to press clippings, books, preparedness tips, key documents, etc.

  18. Presumed stages of y2k • Unawareness / denial • Planning / preparation • Urgency / panic • Response / recovery

  19. Dangers • Chemical and nuclear spills • Failure of urban utilities • Disruption of manufacturing --unemployment • Failure of government services, decentralization, rise of local mafias • Dramatic drop in international trade • Terrorism and sabotage

  20. How we may escape dire consequences • If there is less faulty equipment than currently estimated • If the faulty equipment that exists does not cause critical problems • If more repairs have been made than are currently estimated • If organizations are very effective at work arounds and fixing on failure

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