Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: A New Frontier in Rural-Urban Research

1. Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: A New Frontier in Rural-Urban Research Presented at the Annual Conference:National Rural Research Network Canada Rural Revitalization Foundation Creating Rural Opportunities Through Research Gatineau, Québec October 26, 2006Mark Partridge Swank Professor in Rural-Urban Policy Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy The Ohio State University Rose Olfert University of Saskatchewan

2. Outline: Why are we here? • Rural Canada Myths—the 1950s Rural Canada does not reflect the diversity of Rural Canada • Government policies are based on the myth • Rural-Urban interdependence • Should rural communities compete or cooperate? • Should Lanark Highlands or Papineau compete with Ottawa? • Who will win that one? • Successful cooperation builds strength • Leverage growth for entire regions • Build supporting institutions • Research questions to be answered • This part of the presentation is called “Rose saves the day” Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

3. Rural Myths: Back to the FutureThe 1950s Rural Economy • The myth of rural Canada is that it is solely a natural resource based economy • Pick up the Toronto Star or Globe and Mail and this will likely be the story • Federal and provincial policy is aimed at making this imaginary place “healthy” with imperfect policies mostly aimed at supporting resource based sectors • Though resources still dominate some areas, most of Rural Canada has diversified Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

9. Even Agri-food sector “small” • Primary agriculture (plus services incidental) accounts for about 6% of employment in predominantly rural regions • Processing, input supply, grain storage is another 1.5%; for a total of 7.5% • Source: Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

10. Farm HH’s rely on other sources • 1.6% of Canada’s rural population lives on a Census farm > $250,000 gross sales • source: Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman • Farm family households (farm operating revenues >$10,000) earn ¾ of their income off-farm, 2000 • Source: Statistics Canada—cat. No. 21-019-XIE • Even among farm households where farm income was the major source of income, only about 1/2 of income was from farm sources • Source: Canada Customs and Revenue Agency, Income Statistics, Annual, Ray Bollman, Statistics Canada. Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

11. For those who like statistics • Industry structure matters: Rural Canada avg: Every additional 1% share of “Other Primary Emp.” in 1991 was associated with 0.35% LESS population growth in 1990s Source Statistics Canada & Partridge, M.D.; R. Bollman; M.R. Olfert; and A. Alasia. 2005. “Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the Countryside: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation.” University of Saskatchewan, Canada Rural Economy Research Lab Working Paper. Available at www.crerl.usask.ca. [forthcoming Land Economics]

12. Lessons! • The 1950s Rural Canada no longer exists • Farm/food policy is sub-optimal when linked to rural revitalization • Agriculture policy should focus on food supply and safety • Agriculture is too important for Canada’s international competitiveness to be diverted to local econ dev • Agriculture’s urban influence is under-rated • Rural revitalization is far more complex than farm policy • Need to de-couple rural and farm/food policy!

13. Measuring Success in Rural Canada • Success is long-run population growth • Combines good economy & quality of life • People vote with their feet • Not subjective (not Government $ budget surplus) • Looking E-W across Canada is simplistic • Look North-South to see real patterns • Great Plains population loss • Alberta and BC are in the Rocky Mountain West Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

14. Basic Patterns • Canada’s unique pattern: • Cities are Canada’s engine of growth • Not as true in the U.S. • Canada’s rural development • Critical mass & threshold effects • Growth poles • Not everyone in small communities/neighbourhoods commute in their growth cluster, enough to stabilize their population and build critical mass • This Canadian pattern underlies why rural communities should work together Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

15. Communities should band together • Large cities have the most growth spillovers • Metro areas >500,000 population • Canada’s pop. growth also is centered near urban areas of at least 10,000 people (CAs) • Evidence: growth does not end at city border! • Growth spreads out for hundreds of kms, though the growth effects attenuate with distance • Both rural and urban participate in growth • Best hope for much of rural Canada Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

16. Eastern Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Halifax is one “contender” Engine of Growth.

17. Western Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Saskatoon is one “contender” Engine of Growth.

18. 1996-2001 Population Growth and Urban Centres in the Prairie Provinces Yellow highlighted areas are census agglomeration areas (10,000+) or census metropolitan areas (100,000+).

19. Population Growth in Atlantic Canada

20. Population Growth in Central Canada

21. Population Growth in the West

22. Moral • Rural communities can link to attain critical mass • Rural growth clusters that attain critical mass for econ development and gov’t services • Lesson: not just money, but planning and community collaboration is the key feature • Rose Olfert will provide better evidence of rural-urban interdependence Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

23. How can we cooperate? • This can be a formal consolidation of gov’ts • Need a consensus! But from 2006 AUMA comments, • Borders can exclude people or include people • Why rely on borders drawn for the needs of the early 20th Century • Should reflect broad regional needs of “neighbours” • Transport people/access to urban services and amenities • Environment/Land use • Economic development • Education/health • Quality of life initiatives • Increased political clout for common interests Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

24. Need to build regional identity • Despite the interdependence of communities, too many towns think as if they are an island • Nongovernmental approaches • Chambers of Commerce, service organizations • Overlay regional govt on top of municipalities • Regional economic development authorities • Transportation—critical to build regional clusters Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

25. Avoid Bad Planning Regional transport good, but avoid U.S. “roads at all costs” • Avoid sprawl and donut development • Example Columbus, OH (like many U.S. cities) • Weak cooperation and planning led to unintended consequences even with “great” roads

26. Employment and IncomePre-1964 Outerbelt Construction—Columbus, OH Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone

27. Employment and Income2000 Outerbelt Construction—Columbus, OH Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone

28. Communities/Regions need tools • Provinces should devolve some authority • Greater ability to zone near their boundary • More tax tools including at the regional level • Examples • Regional fuel/use taxes for transportation • Sales taxes (say 1% regional levy)

29. Examples of Cooperation • Ft. McMurray/Wood Buffalo • N. Alberta and N. Sask for Labour force • Outlook, SK is a good example of 1st Nations participating in a regional plan • 1 hour away, Saskatoon reflects an opportunity • Gander, NFLD and surrounding villages Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

30. NW Ohio: 3 counties recently supported Van Wert County’s effort to land a Honda plant • The Darby River Accord brought together 10 OH municipalities to protect an environmental treasure Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

31. Alberta Example of Growth Poles • Calgary and Edmonton lift the entire province • Not just the large cities, all of Alberta • Not Zero Sum! • An urban area as small as 10-15,000 can serve as a growth pole for rural communities • Grande Prairie is important far outside of its borders • But governance structure needs to ensure everyone benefits and everyone participates Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

32. What is needed for success? • Cooperate: check petty jealousies at the door • Communities need to find common interests • Define region: commuting sheds is good start • Maybe better to think of towns as “neighbourhoods” rather than municipalities in a living web of connected regional neighbourhoods. (Mayor Ayling of Grande Prairie) • Communities need to build trust • Realize that everyone benefits, though not necessarily equally • Build supporting infrastructure: • Soft: governance and grassroots “buy-in” • Hard: such as roads Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

33. Summary • Rural Canada myth of returning to the 1950s must be discarded • Policy needs to re-focus on what can be attained rather than perpetuating a myth • Growth in much of rural Canada is quite dependent on linking to urban areas • Exceptions mostly include tourist and retirement destinations and some “resource” communities • Rose, your turn……. Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy

34. Defining the Rural-Urban Linkages • Defining rural-urban linkages key to making infrastructure decisions AND infrastructure decisions influence rural-urban interdependence • Businesses locating in a rural setting to serve the urban mkt., benefit from lower land prices while having access to urban labour markets (infrastructure linkages) • Clients driving out • Moving product into urban areas • Accessing higher order urban services • Labour commuting urban to rural • Forward and backward linked industries, rural and urban • Air travel, globally

35. Defining the Linkages (cont’d) • Households choosing rural locations • Access to urban amenities, upscale shopping, higher order services, entertainment and recreation • Access to urban employment • Private and public infrastructure required in growing nearby rural communities • Urban households linked to rural areas • Recreation, rural amenities • Employment

36. The Research • Infrastructure Canada funding, SSHRC peer-reviewed competition last fall • PI Mark Partridge, Rose Olfert and community leaders • Strong partnerships with CRRF and FCM • Additional partners Saskatoon City Planner, other cities tbd (FCM) • Case Studies • Transportation expert

37. Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface:Partnerships for Sustainable Infrastructure Development • Commuting sheds surrounding all Canadian Census Agglomerations (CAs) and Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) • Link between the urban core and its periphery • Regions for planning the efficient provision of infrastructure for mutual benefit • Statistical analysis of the effect of urban growth on rural and exurban areas, policy implications • Detail the nature of the decay in commuting intensity, governance implications

38. Research Project (continued) • City and regional planners provide regional planning implications of statistical results, for various city sizes • Implications for transportation network--case studies, consider alternative growth scenarios for the urban and rural components, consider governance, physical and environmental constraints • Case studies are important: “one size doesn’t fit all!” • Our research suggests very different rural-urban interdependence Ontario-west vs Quebec-east. • Source: Ali, K., Olfert, R. and Partridge, M. “Can Geographically Weighted Regressions Improve Regional Analysis and Policymaking?” 2006. www.crerl.usask/research.

39. Research Project (continued) • Conventional training for students, as well as the opportunity for students to gain practical experience working with planners and transportation specialists • Ongoing input from CRRF and FCM partners—significant and on-going in-kind and other support

40. Research project (cont’d) • Work is underway with a grad student, post doc and research associate engaged • Recruiting additional cities for case studies • Data purchase has been purchased—national POR/POW data for 2,800 CCS, 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001—large and expensive data set • Importance of POW data for economic analysis—2006?

41. Research project (cont’d) • Maps show the details of the commuting sheds • Unanswered questions wrt overlapping commuting sheds, especially in S. Ontario • Statistical analysis in progress—early results within the year • Case studies very important, and will be tailored to generalize results for other cities across the heterogeneous regions

48. Importance of Rural-Urban Mapping • Rural-urban divide mentality counter-productive in terms of practical development efforts, including infrastructure planning • Rural-urban areas’ common interests can be empirically established—a mutual benefit model will be superior • Rural-urban interface research essential to progress towards regional governance/co-operation models

49. Thank you Presentation will be posted at: The Ohio State University, AED Economics, Swank Program website: http://aede.osu.edu/programs/Swank/ The University of Saskatchewan, CRERL website : http://www.crerl.usask.ca (under presentations)