Development of a Forest Vegetation Simulator variant and application software for Ontario

1. Development of a Forest Vegetation Simulator variant and application software for Ontario Murray Woods, Sr Analyst, Forested Landscapes, OMNR Don Robinson, Sr Systems Ecologist, ESSA Technologies February 13-15, 2007

2. Outline • The Ontario Landbase • Role of FVS in Ontario’s Forest Management Decisions • Getting “here” from “nowhere” • Current Evolution of Model Forms • FVSOntario – the UI for Ontario • Status and Next Steps

3. Hudson Bay Lowlands - sparse Boreal – jack pine / black spruce Deciduous – Tolerant Hardwood Grt. Lakes St. Lawrence – Red/White Pine Ontario’s Landbase

4. Ontario’s Landbase Productive Forest 56.8 million ha (140.3 million acres) All Land and Water107.6 million ha (265.9 million acres) Non-Forested Land17.0 million ha (42 million acres)

5. Forest Cover by Leading Species For the area of forest mangement

6. Regeneration of Annual harvested area and areas impacted from fire, wind, etc. Ontario’s Silvicultural Systems Based on 2003-2004 Annual Report

7. FVSOntario’s role in Forest Management in Ontario • Represents our current understanding of the system and how it responds over time to management interventions • Reduces uncertainty in strategic model inputs • Provides a monitoring target to test our assumptions • Provides a modelling framework to integrate our existing modelling components • Provides a “Gaming” or “What if” tool to develop silvicultural treatments • Identifies gaps in our “G&Y toolbox” and data • Visually animates a stand through time • Provides Ontario with an appropriate tool to grow an enhanced inventory

8. 2000 FVSOntarioTimeline • G&Y Program Model Review - Fibre, Twigs, Silvah, Prognosis • Corresponded with USDA, BC Min. of Forest and ESSA Technology staff • Completed validation of the LS variant for Ontario conditions • Initiated GUI modifications to model software for Ontario species, SI curves, taper equations, volume equations & silvicultural systems • Initiated calibration efforts of Ontario Boreal and Great Lake specific growth and mortality equations • Completed validation of the new Ontarioequations • Development of data preparation software tool • Compiled larger development and validationdatabase • Expanded species specific model forms • Ongoing software/model refinement 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

9. Remeasurement for DBH Growth Equation Calibration Tree Remeasurement Observations Built on Ontario’s PSP Plot program, with ~5 yr remeasurement intervals

10. Large Tree Diameter Model Diameter Growth TermsIndividual: Diameter, Log(Diameter), Height, Tree Quality Class Stand: SI, BA, QMD, BAL DBH growth constrained to 0.95 of fitting observations

11. Large Tree Height Model Height Dubbing TermsIndividual: Height, Diameter Stand: SI, BA, QMD Height growth by differencing

12. Small Tree Models Height Growth TermsIndividual: Height, Log(Height) Stand: SI, BAL Height growth constrained to 0.95 of fitting observations Diameter TermsIndividual: Height Stand: SI, BA, QMD Re-arrangement of Large Tree Height Model, solved for diameter Diameter growth by differencing

13. Model Components UI written in Visual Basic 6 SimProg – assigns model keywords and manages model runs ViewProg – graphic display software SVS – Stand Visualization Software TLM – Tree List Manager

14. FVSOntario – The Current Toolkit TLM– Tree List Manager - create & visualize inventory • Core model – • descendant of LS variant • stand-alone executable • text and database I/O • SimProg– • - plant • thin • harvest • contingent (if-then) activities Database – - simulation results - Access format • Other text • output • SVS • detailed • results • ViewProg – • tabular summaries • graphs (eg BA vs. age) • histograms (eg size • distribution) SVS –Stand Visualization System SimProg and ViewProg UI originally written for PrognosisBC

15. Ontario Assign Site Quality Information

16. Define Initial Stand Conditions

17. Juvenile Spacing Treatment

18. Thinning Treatments

19. Single Tree Selection

20. Uniform Shelterwood

21. Seed Tree Harvest

22. Custom Keyword Opportunities

23. Visualize Stand - SVS By Species and/or Dbh Class Stand Summaries US Style Text Output FVSOntario Output Options

25. Development Status • Cautiously ready to roll-out model for further testing and evaluation by an expanded user’s group • Developing training package and workshop programs • Continuing to utilizing visualization products with public Planning Committees • Demonstrating the model’s abilities in silvicultural training sessions with Gov’t and Industry foresters • Developed a partnership with Michigan-Tech • Successive refinement of model formsas data and funding permit • Developing linkages between polygon inventory and tree lists for FVS (ITC, LiDAR, Statistical methods) Results of Diameter Limit Cutting Lidar Point Cloud

26. FVSOntario – Thank You & Questions Available Reports • Published validation efforts of the LS Variant • Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2004. Testing the Lake States variant of FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator) for the main forest types of northern Ontario.Forestry Chronicle, 80(4). (July/August 2004) • Published Calibration efforts • Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2006.Calibration of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) for the major forest species of Ontario Canada. Special Issue, Ecological Modelling • MNR Publication of Validation of Ontario derived equations • Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2006. Forest Vegetation Simulator Model Validation for Ontario (FVSOntario). Southern Science and Information Section Technical Report #120. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, North Bay, Ontario. 398p. • Manuscript prepared for publication • Woods, Murray and Margaret Penner. 2007. Revised FVSOntario model forms based on an expanded Ontario data set. More information … Murray Woods Senior Analyst Forested Landscapes OMNR www.fvsontario.ca www.forestresearch.ca/partnership_projects/fibre_production/130-107.htm Donald Robinson Senior Systems Ecologist ESSA Technologies Ltd www.essa.com/downloads/prognosis