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Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity

Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity. Alan Renwick and Andrew Midgley. Gross Scottish Agricultural Output 2007. Source: RERAD. Capacity constrained by geography. Census 2008. Ten Year Trend in Land-use. Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics. Livestock Ten year Trend.

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Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity

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  1. Overview of Scotland’s Productive Capacity Alan Renwick and Andrew Midgley

  2. Gross Scottish Agricultural Output 2007 Source: RERAD

  3. Capacity constrained by geography Census 2008

  4. Ten Year Trend in Land-use Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics

  5. Livestock Ten year Trend Source RERAD Agricultural Statistics

  6. Spatial variation in decline Source: Retreat from the Hills – Rural Policy Centre (2008)

  7. Capacity change? • In terms of area and livestock numbers Scotland’s agricultural sector has declined quite markedly in last 10 years – Is this a change in capacity? • Of course need to take account of changes in yield (t/ha, kg meat etc) • Fewer higher yielding animals could offset decline • True in dairy • Less true in sheep, beef • Is capability to produce still there?

  8. Some Issues • As we are discussing food security increasing capacity in Scotland raises some interesting questions • Capacity to produce food for consumption within Scotland or elsewhere? • Capacity for production of food or of drink? • What are the trade-offs?

  9. Capacity, population and trade • We already export significant proportions of our produce • So are we actually over producing for the size of our population? • We may have the physical capacity to produce more, but whether or not we should depends on the scale being considered • Scotland • UK • EU • World

  10. Increasing capacity? • Capacity of processors • Capacity of supply chain • Limited processing capacity in Scotland

  11. Food or Drink? Quantity and Quality Limited by climate and soil Vast majority into Distilling Import most of ¼m tonnes for milling Much Scope to change? Source: DTZ

  12. Destination of Barley Source: DTZ Feed Use, Malting, Exporter of feed, limited scope for malt exports importance of livestock sector

  13. Would increasing capacity make Scotland more food secure? • Scotland’s agricultural sector heavily dependent upon trade • Destination for production of surplus livestock products • Source of supply of products that cannot produce due to climate (e.g. milling wheat) • Source of considerable revenue from distilling industry • If food security threatened by inability to trade very different agriculture would have to emerge?

  14. Increasing capacity: Trade-offs • We might have capacity to increase production, but higher levels of production are likely to have implications • Biodiversity • Water quality • GHG emissions • Knock on effects to tourism?

  15. Increasing capacity: Trade-offs

  16. Alan Renwick alan.renwick@sac.ac.uk www.sac.ac.uk/ruralpolicycentre Our Food Security Briefing can be found at: http://www.sac.ac.uk/ruralpolicycentre/publs/policybriefings/foodsecurity/

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