Presentation Transcript

1. Wisconsin, forward? Wisconsin, forward? A look at our past and our prospects — economic, fiscal, and political.
2. Overview Overview ■ WISTAX and . . . ■ Economic update ■ Other views: Historic, strategic ■ State finances: Past, present, future ■ Political prospects . . . Or does it matter?
3. State economic snapshots Overview ■ April unemployment WI (US) ‘10 ►8.5% (9.9%) ‘08 ►4.3% (5.0%) ■ Job growth (Apr over prior Apr) ‘10 ►-1.4% (-1.0%) ‘09 ►-4.0% (-4.5%) ■ Personal income growth (Q over same Q prior yr) 2009:Q4 ►+0.6% Q3 ►-0.7% 2009:Q2 ►+1.2%Q1 ►-2.9%
4. Snapshot of employers
5. Jobs during the recession US vs. WI nonfarm jobs (SA), Jan 07 = 100 (Mo’ly)
6. Long view: Pers. income pc (% +/- US) > US < US
7. Strategic view: Wis. as ‘product’ GDP % chg GDP pc
8. State finances in brief ─ past $2.71 billion Other states? Wis. Fin. Stmts ($b), GAAP
9. State finances: Current budget 2009-11 < ?! >
10. State finances: New taxes Consequence of dysfunction? ■ Enacted in February $1.14 billion (‘09-‘10-‘11) ■ Added taxes: $1.9 billion (‘09-’11) ■ Added fees: $240 million ■ Totals: Three-years: $3.0+ billion
11. State finances: Tax detail Consequence of dysfunction? ■ Corporate income (no oil profits) e.g. combined reporting, throwback ■ Individual income Top rate up, cap. gains news New ventures? Credits, but odd ‘mix’ ■ Hospital, etc. taxes ■ Sales: ‘iPod,’ streamlined (Menasha) ■ Tobacco (but . . .)
12. Current, future budget challenge Medicaid: ’98: 1/13 ’08: 1/5
13. Future pain: State structural issue . . . and future structural ‘deficits’ 2,326 1,148 899 11 11 11
14. Wis. economy ─ near future(DOR, 5/09) ■ Employm’t growth resumes, spring ’10 ■ Pers. income growth resumed late ’09 ■ Pers. income growth: ’10 3.0% 3.2% ’11 4.6% 4.6% ’12 4.4% 5.2% ’13 4.4% 5.2% Why this matters
15. Structural deficits + slow growth = ■ GPR tax revenues (2010-11) $12.88 billion ■ Pers. income growth ’11 (3.8%) ’12 (5.0%) ■ 12.88 x 5% = $644 million [?!] ■ Structural ‘deficit’ ~ $1.1 billion !
16. Political environment means ??? ■ The ‘modern’* legislature and some iron laws** *career, profession **power is with leadership & interest grp. allies ■ The current math: 18-15 (D,R); 52-46-1 ■ Power of incumbency, retirements ■ The prevalency of ‘tides’: Outside impact? ■ Public mood?! Hints: ─The ‘special’ relationship: UK and US ─R/D: NJ, VA, MA, HI vs. NY, PA ─Intraparty: UT, PA, AR, FL
17. Senate: 18D – 15R Senate: 17D – 16R +1R?
18. Assembly: 51D – 46R – 1I Assembly??!? 49D – 50R +4R net
19. Likely outcomes and meaning ■ 3D control to at least 1R, perhaps 2 ■ Split governance: the good and the bad ■ Issue approaches (evidence following): ─K-12 education (kids/unions vs. tax relief) ─Medicaid ─Local aids ─Higher education ─Prisons ─Tax, budget policy
20. Does legislative composition matter?
21. But . . . . . . what does he know?
22. Questions, quibbles, prayers? The Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance Our eighth decade of teaching and informing the press and public about how their government works, taxes, and spends. Thank you for making our nonpartisan research and citizen education possible. www.wistax.org