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Application of Multiple Models to Simulation Fine Particulate in the Southeastern US

Application of Multiple Models to Simulation Fine Particulate in the Southeastern US. Ralph Morris and Bonyoung Koo ENVIRON International Corporation Denis McNally and T.W. Tesche Alpine Geophysics, LLC Gail Tonnesen UC Riverside National RPO Modeling Meeting Denver, Colorado

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Application of Multiple Models to Simulation Fine Particulate in the Southeastern US

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  1. Application of Multiple Models to Simulation Fine Particulate in the Southeastern US Ralph Morris and Bonyoung Koo ENVIRON International Corporation Denis McNally and T.W. Tesche Alpine Geophysics, LLC Gail Tonnesen UC Riverside National RPO Modeling Meeting Denver, Colorado May 24-25, 2004 Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  2. VISTAS Phase I Modeling – Multi-Models • July 1999 and July 2001 Episodes • CMAQ and CAMx • 36 km and 12 km • January 2002 and July 1999 Episodes • CMAQ and CMAQ-MADRID • 36 km only (CMAQ-MADRID in progress) • Operate Models in a Consistent Fashion • Same horizontal and vertical grid • CMAQ-to-CAMx emissions, IC and BC processors • Different met interface programs (MCIP and MM5CAMx) Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  3. VISTAS Phase I Modeling – Multi-Models • Evaluation for monitoring sites in VISTAS states • IMPROVE, CASTNet, SEARCH, STN (July 2001 only) • “Soccer Goal” plots of summary performance • Plot Fractional Bias versus Fractional Error • Consider two bias/error “soccer goals” • 15%/35% -- 1-hour ozone performance goal • May exceed measurement technology • 50%/75% • Not suggested as performance goal, used to frame and intercompare performance across models and species • Always box bias/error by 100%/200% • If performance statistics exceed these values then set equal to them in plot Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  4. SO4 CMAQ 36 km Bias/Error Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  5. SO4 CAMx 36 km Bias/Error Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  6. NO3 CMAQ 36 km NO3 CAMx 36 km Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  7. Carbon (TCM, EC and OC) CMAQ 36 km Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  8. Carbon (TCM, EC and OC) CAMx 36 km Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  9. SO4 Hourly Timer Series @ SEARCH Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple)  Jefferson St. (Atlanta)  Yorkville (rural) Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  10. SO4 and TCM Hourly Timer Series @ SEARCH Centreville, AL Site (rural)  Sulfate (SO4)  Total Carbon Mass (TCM) Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple) Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  11. TCM Hourly Time Series @ SEARCH CMAQ performance issue partly due to Kz_min = 0.1 m2/s  Yorkville, GA (rural)  Oak Grove, MS (rural) Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple) Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  12. TCM Hourly Time Series @ SEARCH CMAQ Kz_min Sensitivity Tests  Yorkville, GA (rural)  Oak Grove, MS (rural) Observed (red) Kz_min = 0.1 m2/s Kz_min = 1.0 m2/s Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  13. VISTAS Multi-Model Evaluation Conclusions • CMAQ performed better for SO4, whereas CAMx performed better for Carbon • MM5CAMx currently being updated to better deal with clouds and precipitation • Both models had NO3, Soil and CM performance issues • CMAQ lead model coming into Phase I and SO4 performance was quite encouraging so was selected as primary model for Phase II • CMAQ-AIM results pending • Optional (currently unfunded) VISTAS Phase II task to apply alternative models Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

  14. VISTAS Multi-Model Evaluation Conclusions • Once CMAQ is set up, 95% of the work for running CAMx is also done (and vice versa) • CMAQ-to-CAMx emissions, IC/BC Interface Software makes these inputs easy to prepare • MM5 used by both models • Also have CAMx-to-CMAQ emissions processor • Advantages of running multiple models • Corroborative analysis • Diagnostic analysis • Additional features available • e.g., for CAMx two-way nesting, sectional PM, alternative science algorithms, probing tools (PSAT/OSAT, DDM and Process Analysis) Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

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