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How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?

How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?. Direct impacts of climate change Indirect impacts via policy and market responses Conclusions : what’s new for farm businesses to adjust to climate change. Direct impacts. Climate change is already compromising agriculture.

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How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?

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  1. How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses? • Direct impacts of climate change • Indirect impacts via policy and market responses • Conclusions:what’s new for farmbusinesses to adjust to climate change

  2. Direct impacts

  3. Climate change is already compromising agriculture Lobell et al. 2011 Science

  4. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely

  5. e.g. Africa: shorter growing seasons anticipated Length of growing period (%) More frequent, more intense extreme weather events: droughts, floods, cyclones >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise Thornton et al. 2010

  6. The noughties: a decade of record-breaking extreme weather events Coumou & Rahmstorf 2012 Nature Climate Change

  7. Not bad news everywhere… but complex! • Key unknowns for farming: • pests and diseases • district- & farm-level climate changes • potential for adaptation to overcome impacts

  8. Indirect impacts

  9. Agriculture’s recent journey First time agriculture officially on the agenda Ag negotiating text ‘ready’ but goes nowhere

  10. More progress at national level? Adaptation: technologies, institutions, finance, incentives for farmers Mitigation: technologies, institutions, finance, targets, markets Mexico 2012: 50% by 2050 UK 2008: 80% by 2050

  11. Food systems contributes 19-29% GHGs Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

  12. Soil & land management key to agricultural mitigation Smith et al. 2007 IPCC

  13. But are carbon markets a good deal for farmers? Claims: US$4.8 billion global market (assuming $18/tonne) US$1.5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa (almost twice the overseas development assistance for agriculture in the region) But: -Weak market: $1.03/t -Social justice issues: distract from agricultural development & adaptation needs Analysis of Wollenberg 2011

  14. Conclusions

  15. What is new for farmers’ businesses? • Near-term: greater emphasis than ever on risk management (weather & climate forecasts; insurance) • Horizon-scanning: early action in anticipation of major trends in your region (new varieties, crops & production systems) • Opportunity & influence: keep abreast & participate in policy processes, in finance opportunities, in climate-smart agriculture

  16. www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for news on agriculture & climate change follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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