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CHAPTER 4

CHAPTER 4. PRINCIPAL STAGES IN THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS. STUDY OBJECTIVES. At the end of this chapter students will be expected to be able to define, where applicable and explain each of the following elements and stages in the urban transportation planning process:

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CHAPTER 4

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  1. CHAPTER 4 PRINCIPAL STAGES IN THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

  2. STUDY OBJECTIVES At the end of this chapter students will be expected to be able to define, where applicable and explain each of the following elements and stages in the urban transportation planning process: • travel demand forecasting; • the formulation of goals and objectives; • the collection of basic data; • the establishment of quantifiable relationships between movement and land use; • trip generation; • the prediction of future land-use, populations and economic characteristics;

  3. STUDY OBJECTIVES cont’ • The preparation of a land use plan; • predictions of future origins, destinations and the distribution of person movements; • trip distribution; • the estimation of future person movements carried by different modes of travel; • network planning; • the assignment of future trips to the proposed transport networks etc.

  4. 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS. • The three stages [basic framework] essential to any transportation planning process: • A survey and analysis stage which establishes the present demand for movement and how this is met, and the relationships between this demand for movement and the urban environment;

  5. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ • A prediction and plan formulation stage, which projects for some future date the likely travel demand, based on the data collected and the relationship established in the survey and analysis stage, and puts forward proposals to meet this demand.

  6. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ • An evaluation stage which attempts to assess whether the transportation proposals put forward satisfy the projected demand for: travel with adequate safety, capacity and levels of service to provide the maximum benefits to the community with minimum costs.

  7. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ The 11 principal stages in the urban transportation planning process are: 1. Explicitly formulating goals and objectives; 2. Collecting land-use, population, economic and travel pattern data for the present day situations; 3. Establishing quantifiable relationships between present-day movements and the land-use, population and economic factors;

  8. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ 4. Predicting land-use, population and economic factors to the target date for the study and the development of a land-use plan(s); 5. Predicting the origins, destinations and distribution of the future movement demands, using the relationships established for the present day situation and the predicted land-use population and economic factors (trip generations and trip distribution);

  9. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ 6. Predicting the person movements likely to be carried by the different modes of travel at the target date (modal split); 7. Developing the highway and public transport networks to fit the predicted land-use plan and accommodate the estimated pattern of movements.

  10. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ 8. Assigning predicted trips to alternative co-ordinated transport networks/systems (traffic assignment); 9. Evaluating the efficiency and economic viability of the alternative transport networks in terms of economic and social costs and benefits;

  11. 4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’ 10. Selecting and implementing the most appropriate transport networks; 11. Monitoring and reviewing the chosen transportation policies or plans.

  12. 4.1.7 ESTIMATIONS OF FUTURE PERSON MOVEMENTS CARRIED BYDIFFERENT MODES OF TRAVEL Factors that affect an individual’s choice of mode of transport for a particular journey are: • income, • the availability and convenience of alternative modes of transport and • length of journey

  13. 4.1.11 THE SELECTION OF A BALANCED TRANSPORT SYSTEM • The decision as to which transport system best serves the needs of the community cannot be made by the transportation planning process. • The transportation planning process is basically an aid to orderly decision-making and not the precise instrument that some people like to think it is.

  14. 4.2 COLLECTION OF BASIC DATA 4.2.1 INTRODUCTION • An essential first step in any planning process is the collection of information about the existing situation.

  15. 4.2.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ The transportation planning process therefore involves the accumulation of basic data i.e.: • Characteristics of present-day travel patterns in the area under consideration must be collected; • The future distribution of land use and population dispersion must be considered; • Adequacy of existing transportation facilities must be determined and spare capacity estimated.

  16. 4.2.3 SUBDIVISION OF AREA INTO TRAFFIC ZONES • The area being surveyed is divided into zones so as to make it intelligible, open to analysis and suitable for the assignment of trips. • Traffic zones are therefore the basic unit of analysis for the transport planning process. • Trip data should be coded to traffic zones, and socio-economic and land-use data should be inventoried on a zonal basis.

  17. 4.2.3 SUBDIVISION OF AREA INTO TRAFFIC ZONES • The zonal system is then used as a basis to determine the origins and destinations of all trips within the transport authority’s area. • The size of a traffic zone is influenced by the: • size of the transport authority, • the density of population, and • the distribution of economic activity in the transport authority’s area.

  18. 4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA • Traffic is therefore a function- of activities, and is concentrated in towns because activities are concentrated there. Factors that effect traffic are: • Population and employment data • Income • the total number of cars owned; • the number of households with nil, one and two or more cars: • the number of owner-occupied dwellings, council-rented dwellings,

  19. 4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA cont’ • Income cont’ • other rented dwellings furnished and unfurnished and other dwellings; • the socio-economic group of the chief economic supporter of the household; • the social class of the chief economic supporter of the household.

  20. 4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA cont’ • Retail sales • Attendance at establishments schools, colleges, and other educational • Other land-use data • It has been found that both the amount and the characteristics of travelare influenced by the intensity of development of land.

  21. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION • LAND-USE FACTORS • Land use is a convenient way of classifying trip generating activities. • Different uses of land produce different trip generation characteristics. • For example, land given over to shopping development or offices could be expected to generate more trips than open space.

  22. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’ • The intensity with which different activities are pursued can produce different generation characteristics: • For example, one acre of residential and developed at a high density (flats) would be likely to produce more total person movements than one acre of land developed for residential purposes at a low density (houses).

  23. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’ Land-Use can be broadly classified into 3 uses: • Residential land use • Commercial and Industrial land use • Educational and Recreational land use

  24. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’ (B) THE HOME • Family size. • Travel is a function of human activity. • Thus a relationship should exist between the number and frequency of trips made from the home and family size.

  25. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’ • Motor vehicle ownership. • The number of vehicles available for use by each household influences trip generation. • Type of dwelling unit. • The more permanent types of dwelling unit reflect a high degree of integration into the local community on the part of the household and lead to a high rate of trip generation.

  26. 4.3.2FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’ • Occupied residents. • The occupation of the head of the household is one of the major indicators of the standard of living enjoyed by the family and reflects to a certain extent the family income. • Family income. • The ability to pay for a journey affects the number of trips generated by a household. • Family income tends to be related to levels of motor vehicle ownership.

  27. 4.5 MODAL SPLITMODAL CHOICE 4.5.1 INTRODUCTION • Trip-makers can select between several travel modes. • These may include driving, riding with someone else, taking the bus, walking, riding a motorcycle etc. • A modal choice or modal split model is concerned with the trip-makers behaviour regarding the selection of travel mode.

  28. 4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ • Assumption for this model: of a given total travel demand the proportion carried by bus, taxi, railway or private motor car will depend on the standing of each mode of transport in relation to its competitors.

  29. 4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ The measure of competitiveness is usually derived from an analysis of three sets of factors: • Characteristics of the journey to be made, • e.g. length, time of day the journey is made, purpose of the journey;

  30. 4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ • Characteristics of the person making the journey • e.g. car-ownership, income, social standing: • Characteristics of the transportation system • e.g. travel time involved, costs, and accessibility, comfort.

  31. 4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ • In estimating modal choice, trip makers should be treated as two separate groups • (i) captive public transport users who do not have access to a car for the particular trip under study: and • (ii) choice public transport users who are in a position to choose whether to use car or public transport for a particular journey. • Income, sex, and age are the three main factors in determining ‘captive’ or ‘choice’ status.

  32. 4.5.2FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE Factors the influences modal choice are: (A)CHARACTERISTICS OF THE JOURNEY • Journey length • Journey purpose

  33. 4.5.2FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE cont’ (B)CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRAVELLER • Socio-economic characteristics of the households: income; • car ownership; • family size and structure: • density of residential development • type of job undertaken; and • the location of workplace.

  34. 4.5.2FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE cont’ (C) CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM • Relative travel time • Relative travel cost • Relative level of service • Accessibility indices

  35. 4.6.2NETWORK PLANNING Two basic alternative modes of public transport are generally examined in the development of alternative public transport networks. • Firstly, rapid mass transit (e.g. underground or suburban railways) and • secondly the motor bus.

  36. 4.6.4DIVERSION CURVES IN TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT • For any trip from one zone to another there are usually several alternative routes for the person making the trip. • Each route has its own ‘travel resistance’ based on its distance, travel time, speed and level of service. • These characteristics are evaluated by the driver before choosing a particular route.

  37. 4.6.4DIVERSION CURVES IN TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT cont’ • A route with a high travel resistance (e.g. a busy urban street with bus stops, parked cars, intersections and pedestrians), will be used by less drivers than a comparable route with low travel resistance.

  38. 4.7 EVALUATION OF TRANSPORTATION PROPOSALS 4.7.1 INTRODUCTION • The evaluation stage of the transport planning process attempts to assess whether the transportation proposals put forward satisfy the projected demand for travel with adequate safety capacity and levels of service to provide the maximum benefits to the community with minimum costs.

  39. 4.7.1 INTRODUCTION cont’ • Evaluation involves the assessment of the comparative merits of different courses of action. • Thus it is concerned with analysing a number of alternative plans or projects in order to identify systematically and logically their comparative advantages (benefits) and disadvantages (costs).

  40. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED A number of different methods are used to evaluate proposals for development. The most important methods include: • Financial appraisal, • Concerned with estimating the future streams of capital and operating costs and revenues resulting from the implementation of investment projects;

  41. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ • Check list of criteria, • whereby alternative proposals are ranked subjectively, in order, in relation to a number of specified criteria; • Goals achievement analysis, • where the extent to which alternative proposals will achieve a predetermined set of goals and objectives is determined;

  42. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ • Costs in use • which estimates both private and public capital and operating costs involved in urban developments; • Threshold analysis • where the capital and operating costs of location sare investigated and crucial thresholds in relation to the scale of development and the provision of services are identified;

  43. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ • Cost-benefit analysis, • where the social worth of public sector projects is appraised • Planning balance sheet analysis, • which is a particular application of the cost-benefit analysis approach.

  44. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ • Large-scale transportation proposals are usually assessed by means of a cost-benefit analysis, which aims to compare the costs and benefits associated with alternative schemes.

  45. 4.7.2 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED • Cost-benefit analysis is a practical way of assessing the desirability of projects, where it is important to take • the long view • in the sense of looking at repercussions in the further, as well as the nearer, future and • a wide view • in the sense of allowing for side effects of many kinds on many persons, industries, regions, • i.e. it implies the specification and evaluation of all the relevant costs and benefits.

  46. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ Thus; a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis should include the following: (i) Financial assessment - to determine a project’s need for funds and also whether the project is viable from a financial point of view:

  47. 4.7.2COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’ (ii) Economic analysis - to determine the scarcity value of goods and services used in the project and arising from the project (based mainly on opportunity-cost considerations): (iii) Social analysis - to determine the effect of the project on the distribution of welfare and other social circumstances.

  48. 4.7.6 - PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS (D) IDENTIFICATION AND QUANTIFICATION OF SOCIAL IMPACTS The following social consequences of a project should be addressed: • Distributional effects between income groups, population groups or geographical groups; • Welfare consequences: • Political and constitutional implications;

  49. 4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’ • Strategic consequences; • Prestige; • The creation of job opportunities; • The achievement of economic independence; • Population movements.

  50. 4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’ (G) RECOMMENDATION AND COMPLETION OF THE REPORT, SUMMARY AND SUMMARISING TABLE The summary, to give the decision-maker an overview of the most important aspects of the analysis, should cover the following: • An introduction;

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