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Presentation to CMAS October 7, 2008 Susan Casper, J. Jason West UNC - Chapel Hill Larry Horowitz

The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Premature Human Mortality. Presentation to CMAS October 7, 2008 Susan Casper, J. Jason West UNC - Chapel Hill Larry Horowitz NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ Daniel Tong

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Presentation to CMAS October 7, 2008 Susan Casper, J. Jason West UNC - Chapel Hill Larry Horowitz

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  1. The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Premature Human Mortality Presentation to CMAS October 7, 2008 Susan Casper, J. Jason West UNC - Chapel Hill Larry Horowitz NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ Daniel Tong Science and Technology Corporation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC

  2. Previous Study Cohen, et al. (2004) Urban Air Pollution, In Comparative quantification of health risks. Geneva, WHO. 800,000 annual mortalities due to urban PM

  3. Objectives • Estimate global burden of human mortality due to anthropogenic ozone and PM • Use model approach to improve on previous methods • Rural areas • Isolation of anthropogenic pollution

  4. Approach – Health Impact Functions Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop Concentration-response factor Exposed population Baseline mortality rate Change in exposure concentration

  5. Concentration-Response Factors (CRF) Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop For ozone, stronger effects captured by daily time-series studies: For PM, stronger effects captured by cohort studies: Source: Bell et al., 2004 Source: Pope et al., 2002 ln RR ln RR ΔX xt Concentration (x)

  6. Concentrations Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop MOZART-2 surface data from Horowitz (2006) Δ annual average daily 8-hr max. O3 (2000-preindustrial) Δ annual average PM (2000-preindustrial)

  7. Baseline Mortality Rates Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop All-cause Cardiopulmonary WHO, 2004 Lung Cancer

  8. Annual Ozone Mortalities Best estimate: 282,000 to 362,000 cardiopulmonary mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 135,000 – 551,000.

  9. Annual Ozone Mortalities Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people Non-accidental Cardiopulmonary

  10. Ozone mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters Meta-analyses: Bell et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005

  11. Annual PM Mortalities Best estimate: 1.3 to 2.4 million cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 465,000 –3.8 million.

  12. Annual PM Mortalities Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people All-cause Cardiopulmonary Lung Cancer

  13. PM mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters

  14. Comparison to Previous Study • Recall… Cohen et al. (2004) found 800,000 mortalities due to urban PM 891,000 (299,000-1.4 million) Including rural population and capturing urban peaks would suggest even larger numbers of mortalities

  15. Summary • Results highly dependent on assumptions • CRF • Threshold • High density of mortalities in densely populated areas, but some in less populated areas

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